The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7200	7549	349

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-23  Comp

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	161.57		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	8.83%		10.10m
Nope	161.57		17	216		0/84	13488/13704	1.58%		3822	9.13%		10.34m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         74/2624  [2.82% sold]
Matinee:        36/687 [5.24% | 10.32% of all tickets sold]
3D:            140/2458  [5.70% | 40.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7171	7549	378	5.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-22  Comp

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	151.20		34	250		0/73	11015/11265	2.22%		3951	9.57%		9.45m
Nope	162.93		16	232		0/84	13472/13704	1.69%		3822	9.89%		10.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:          76/2624  [2.90% sold]
Matinee:        37/687  [5.39% | 9.79% of all tickets sold]
3D:            144/2458  [5.86% | 38.10% of all tickets sold]

[ZackM]

On 2/15/2023 at 4:33 PM, ZackM said:

 

Tough day...

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	692	470	4	26	20
Seats Added	72,557	51,785	516	2,841	3,264
Seats Sold	13,131	11,297	7,064	5,088	5,125
2/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,327	211,730	1,059,560	19.98%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	77	296	577
ATP
$17.30

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

 

Meh day...

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	119	692	470	4	26
Seats Added	11,079	72,557	51,785	516	2,841
Seats Sold	22,726	13,131	11,297	7,064	5,088
2/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,446	234,456	1,070,639	21.90%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	10	96	325	638
ATP
$17.12

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$18.8	$19.8	$18.8	$19.7	$16.4	$17.4
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

 

 

I'll be delayed in posting final presales numbers tomorrow, but the numbers themselves will be tracked at the normal time.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Moral of the story: Reviews absolutely matter nowadays. You can't really get away with a Rotten Tomato in the streaming age. If you get that you're basically direct to video fodder in the eyes of many.

[Boxofficerules]

Is Scream VI looking good?

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Moral of the story: Reviews absolutely matter nowadays. You can't really get away with a Rotten Tomato in the streaming age. If you get that you're basically direct to video fodder in the eyes of many.

Really depends on the movie. Venom 3 will do just fine rotten. So will Jurassic Galaxy or whatever. With the MCU:

there’s an expectation of good reception

audience tend to agree with critics when there does turn out to be lower critic reception

Edited February 16, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-1	Jax	6	116	212	2,244	18,004	12.46%
		Phx	7	110	207	2,380	16,698	14.25%
		Ral	8	122	156	2,335	15,495	15.07%
	Total		21	348	575	6,959	50,197	13.86%
Cocaine Bear	T-8	Jax	6	19	3	36	2,164	1.66%
		Phx	6	15	0	61	1,980	3.08%
		Ral	8	20	0	53	1,569	3.38%
	Total		20	54	3	150	5,713	2.63%
Jesus Revolution	T-8	Jax	5	9	0	29	1,021	2.84%
		Phx	4	5	4	25	622	4.02%
		Ral	7	11	6	90	1,156	7.79%
	Total		16	25	10	144	2,799	5.14%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	11	2	253	1,021	24.78%
		Phx	5	8	2	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	7	677	1,506	44.95%
	Total		18	32	11	1,092	3,377	32.34%
Scream VI	T-22	Jax	5	23	34*	96	3,350	2.87%
		Phx	5	15	48*	184	2,792	6.59%
		Ral	8	33	23*	132	4,211	3.13%
	Total		18	71	105*	412	10,353	3.98%

*Scream new sales since Saturday

 

Ant-Man 3 T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.489x (19.65m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .38x (13.66m)

 - Thor 4 - .6285x (18.23m)

 - Eternals - 2.04x (19.35m)

 - BP2 - .56x (15.65m)

 

Pacing behind the close comps (BW/Thor/Eternals).  +8.26% from yesterday where the others were +12.6%/+13%/+11.7% respectively.  Valentines could have depressed sales so we'll see if it rebounds today.  Lowering my expectation to around 19m though.

 

Jesus Revolution T-8 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .954x (582k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.18x (862k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.477x (4.46m)

 - Left Behind - 8.185x (5m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 10.13x (7.4m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-8 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.442x (2.09m)

 - Nope - .303x (1.94m)

 - Bullet Train - .617x (2.07m)

 - Violent Night - 1.807x (1.99m)

 

Looking like 2m previews at this point.

 

Scream VI T-22 comps

 - Nope - 1.761x (11.27m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.24x (11.95m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-0	Jax	6	116	396	2,640	18,004	14.66%
		Phx	7	114	461	2,841	17,045	16.67%
		Ral	8	125	331	2,666	15,685	17.00%
	Total		21	355	1,188	8,147	50,734	16.06%
Cocaine Bear	T-7	Jax	6	19	2	38	2,164	1.76%
		Phx	6	15	5	66	1,980	3.33%
		Ral	8	20	8	61	1,569	3.89%
	Total		20	54	15	165	5,713	2.89%
Jesus Revolution	T-7	Jax	5	9	6	35	1,021	3.43%
		Phx	4	5	0	25	622	4.02%
		Ral	7	12	9	99	1,168	8.48%
	Total		16	26	15	159	2,811	5.66%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	11	9	262	1,021	25.66%
		Phx	5	8	0	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	17	694	1,506	46.08%
	Total		18	32	26	1,118	3,377	33.11%
Scream VI	T-21	Jax	5	23	7	103	3,350	3.07%
		Phx	5	15	12	196	2,792	7.02%
		Ral	8	33	7	139	4,211	3.30%
	Total		18	71	26	438	10,353	4.23%

 

Ant-Man 3 T-0 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.407x (18.57m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .393x (14.147m)

 - Thor 4 - .612x (17.74m)

 - Eternals - 1.965x (18.667m)

 - BP2 - .576x (16.13m)

 

I was hoping for a much better day, but it looks like the reviews are gonna hold it back.  Should be under 19m preview; I'll go with 18.5m with one update to go. 

 

Jesus Revolution T-7 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .941x (574k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.136x (829k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.36x (4.25m)

 - Left Behind - 7.56x (4.61m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 9.12x (6.66m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-7 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.542x (2.235m)

 - Nope - .314x (2.01m)

 - Bullet Train - .609x (2.04m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Looking like 2m previews at this point.

 

Scream VI T-21 comps

 - Nope - 1.848x (11.83m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.76x (12.7m)

[Krissykins]

Cocaine Bear might break out after all. I wondered if it would go the way of internet fun only.
 

These Scream VI comparisons are very promising. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Quantumania Marcus:

 

Previews: 

Seats Sold: 24349/131215

0.66x WF (18.49m)

0.53x Thor 4 (15.37m)

The above 2 comps were taken a couple hours later in the night, so they'll be a bit low. Still, not too different from everywhere else.

 

Friday:

Seats Sold: 23550/222275

0.49x WF (26.95m)

Same caveat, the comp is slightly low. 

 

Will be more regular with Marcus updates for future films. 

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	31	342	2,359	14.50%	$15.51	$5,305.12
		PLF	46	168	3,372	9,938	33.93%	$16.34	$55,098.26
		Standard	102	231	2,377	12,698	18.72%	$12.46	$29,608.27
	Total		170	430	6,091	24,995	24.37%	$14.78	$90,011.65

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Ant-Man 3	N	128	355	5,350	18,509	28.90%	$15.20	$81,335.61
		Y	42	75	741	6,486	11.42%	$11.71	$8,676.04
	Total		170	430	6,091	24,995	24.37%	$14.78	$90,011.65

 

T-1 comps

 - Batman + EA - .941x (20.33m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .659x (19.1m)

 - Black Panther 2 - .754x (21.12m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - 1.124x (21.66m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.317x (22.39m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	53	395	2,359	16.74%	$15.53	$6,133.22
		PLF	46	326	3,698	9,938	37.21%	$16.26	$60,118.74
		Standard	102	603	2,980	12,698	23.47%	$12.35	$36,810.08
	Total		170	982	7,073	24,995	28.30%	$14.57	$103,062.04

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Ant-Man 3	N	128	733	6,083	18,509	32.87%	$15.05	$91,547.48
		Y	42	249	990	6,486	15.26%	$11.63	$11,514.56
	Total		170	982	7,073	24,995	28.30%	$14.57	$103,062.04

 

*Okay, so I found an issue where one of my formulas had been overwritten...  I've updated the quoted post and I'll update the original after this is posted.  Sorry for the confusion!

 

T-0 comps

 - Batman + EA - .892x (19.278m)

 - DS2 - .446x (16.05m)

 - Thor 4 - .624x (18.1m)

 - Black Panther 2 - .694x (19.43m)

 - No Way Home - .356x (17.8m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - 1.091x (21.05m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.259x (21.4m)

 

Much more reasonable than yesterday.  Still think it'll be under 19m but they'll probably report at 19m.  

[M37]

Updated Chart at T-1

 

While the average line has been much bouncier than usual - thanks largely to the outlier high and low values for Drafthouse and Jax/Pho/Ral samples respectively, which are not updated daily - it really hasn't moved up or down much since ~T-24.

 

That is, until starting around T-7, when values vs comps started to drift downward. Some of that can likely be chalked up to Super Bowl and Valentine's distractions as discussed, but Mon and Wed did not recover substantially to offset. Still believe there is room to bounceback on the final day, and a lower pre-sale volume would typically mean a higher growth rate than the ~25% for most samples from T-1 to T-0 and ~44% for Alpha to T-F that we saw for both Thor and BPWF (MoM was 16-20% and 33% from a higher baseline value).

Getting to $20M from here is sill possible and wouldn't yet rule it out, but the weaker pace overall, lower values for secondary markets, the absence of a summer or full holiday Friday, and mediocre reviews all suggest the ceiling is dropping

 

Thursday Preview Forecast: $18M or $19M ($17.5-$19.4 with Disney rounding)

 

Some good news though: the weekend sales data that is available shows solid and improving numbers for Fri & Sat (relative to Thur), and AMWQ should leg out better from Thursday across those two days than all MCU comps except for BPWF, with a holiday Sunday to follow. Expecting close to if not over $80M through Saturday, which should be enough for at least a triple digit OW, though probably not all that much more unless we get a big/GA friendly Sat and Sun:

$100-115M 3-day (~5.6-5.9x IM)

[filmlover]

Haven't been sure how Cocaine Bear would do considering how difficult it is to sell genre hybrids but if it pulls a similar opening to Violent Night that would be another win for Universal.

[keysersoze123]

I thought I should be positive considering tue to wed increase was better than norm. All other reports have been negative. 

 

Relative to mega openers last year it still looks bad. But walkups are the key. I think it will just scrap by 100m over 3 days. Ant-man lacks the heft to pull in casual GA at the last moment. based on fri/sat data, I am not seeing Fri > 1.5x previews. That would take it close to 30m but be slightly short. Plus its underperforming in smaller chains/markets(except drafthouse). I am not sure what to make of Canada comp as @Tinalera has note done any comps but it should be relatively weak as well. 

[Nikostar]

Cocaine Bear TV spots are really disappointing 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Cocaine Bear TV spots are really disappointing 

They definitely don't seem sure about how to sell the movie in 30 seconds. Is it a horror movie? A spoof? Both? Movies with that kind of identity crisis usually end up struggling to find an audience in theaters, which is why I think anything above $10M opening would be considered a win for it.

[Hiccup23]

Honestly Piranha 3D numbers for Cocaine Bear would be solid. 

[M37]

48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thought I should be positive considering tue to wed increase was better than norm. All other reports have been negative. 

 

Relative to mega openers last year it still looks bad. But walkups are the key. I think it will just scrap by 100m over 3 days. Ant-man lacks the heft to pull in casual GA at the last moment. based on fri/sat data, I am not seeing Fri > 1.5x previews. That would take it close to 30m but be slightly short. Plus its underperforming in smaller chains/markets(except drafthouse). I am not sure what to make of Canada comp as @Tinalera has note done any comps but it should be relatively weak as well. 

Given the data I'm looking at (and I don't have the MTC numbers you do) I would take the over on 1.6x Fri, as the calendar/time of year/holiday weekend will also be a benefit in pushing walk-up sales to the weekend

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Given the data I'm looking at (and I don't have the MTC numbers you do) I would take the over on 1.6x Fri, as the calendar/time of year/holiday weekend will also be a benefit in pushing walk-up sales to the weekend

Fri/Thu ratio at Alpha is better than Thor, worse than MoM.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thought I should be positive considering tue to wed increase was better than norm. All other reports have been negative. 

 

Relative to mega openers last year it still looks bad. But walkups are the key. I think it will just scrap by 100m over 3 days. Ant-man lacks the heft to pull in casual GA at the last moment. based on fri/sat data, I am not seeing Fri > 1.5x previews. That would take it close to 30m but be slightly short. Plus its underperforming in smaller chains/markets(except drafthouse). I am not sure what to make of Canada comp as @Tinalera has note done any comps but it should be relatively weak as well. 

Comps are a bit weird at the moment as I just started with Avatar and now Antman doing across Canada counts, my previous comps are from Toronto area only, and wasnt sure if it was applicable in these cases. I could bring up some counts I have from Toronto for previous film percentages just to do a comparison. Let me see what I can bring up just so people can see some numbers from some previous films.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Comps are a bit weird at the moment as I just started with Avatar and now Antman doing across Canada counts, my previous comps are from Toronto area only, and wasnt sure if it was applicable in these cases. I could bring up some counts I have from Toronto for previous film percentages just to do a comparison. Let me see what I can bring up just so people can see some numbers from some previous films.

 

We are late enough in the presale run that even the Avatar comp would be informative.