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[Maggie]

Can WSS leg its way to like 70M?

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

In my opinion, Godzilla v Kong and Dune are the box office successes of the year.

 

Both had simultaneous streaming releases. GVK opened during a pandemic with limited seating and pre-vaccine. Dune was a dense, weird impossible to adapt sci-fi that was doubted for years and held over

I mean… you could argue them for 2nd and 3rd place, but cmon now 😛 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Can WSS leg its way to like 70M?

It's starting to make a comeback but for now I think it lands somewhere around Munich ($47M), unless Oscar bumps and few releases the next few months really help it out. I imagine Disney is holding the D+ release until after the Oscars in late March so they can use "Nominated for/Winner of (how many awards it receives)" when it comes time to promote its launch.

[KP1025]

17 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

I mentioned Sony movies a while ago...there's a reason their "exclusive to cinemas" strategy is working. Their numbers show that. 

Every studio panicked with the pandemic because of huge budgets and a much smaller market at the BO and rushed for these same-day streaming deals...and it backfired.

 

Sony on the other hand stayed the course and decided to sign deals for their movies AFTER their theatrical runs and after a VOD/DVD/Blu-ray window. Only after making bank like this they go to Netflix (for a few months) AND then they get money to have their catalog on Disney Plus "forever". The fact the budget for their movies isn't astronomical (Venom 2 at 110M) and that China is still allowing them to release there as well is basically a huge win for the company.

 

Look at Uncharted...it has an estimated budget of 120M. Even if the movie doesn't break-even at the box office next year, what are odds of it actually losing money by the time it finally lands on Disney Plus?

 

While I agree that Sony has been the best studio at giving their films exclusive theatrical windows, even they dumped some films on streaming. I believe there was Cinderella and then mostly animated films like Mitchells vs the Machines, Wish Dragon and Vivo.

 

And regarding China, Sony has unfortunately also felt the pressure with Venom 2 being banned and NWH release looking questionable until further notice. Granted that is more of a Marvel blacklist than a slight on Sony or Disney specifically since their other films have gotten releases in China. 

[Torontofan]

No Way Home is the success of the year.

 

Will become an all time hit even with pandemic reducing audiences especially older/family and Canada. 

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Can WSS leg its way to like 70M?

$70M?? It’s not even at $25M after 3 weekends. Even Avatar legs from here gets it to only $53M. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

they did well for their circumstances but idk how No Way Home is anything but the box office success of the year

 

2 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I mean… you could argue them for 2nd and 3rd place, but cmon now 😛 

Here's my counterargument: surprise factor. If you do what's expected, even if it's really incredible from all objective measures, it's not as exciting or as interesting as something that had more going against it or just came out of the blue. GvK was in a far worse state pandemic-wise, and everybody and their Grandma said Dune was going to be an epic failure. NWH, while nobody expected to be as big as it was until the run-up towards release, was about as safe a bet as you can get. Even back in the days of 2020 or early 2021, people felt confident Spidey would be the biggest hit of the pandemic era. And yes, those numbers are impressive, but it's not that farfetched to think it could have gotten there. So with more restrictions and harder circumstances, I'm on the GvK/Dune camp.

 

Just as another example, I will always say that Jurassic World is the bigger, more interesting story than Force Awakens. Yes, most didn't expect nearly 1B DOM for the latter...but not a soul thought 650M was a snowball's chance for Jurassic World. In my subjective viewpoint, Jurassic World is the bigger surprise and therefore the bigger story. And for the record, I know that this isn't a popular opinion or way to look at things. This is just my dumb perspective here.

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

It's Cinemascore and verified RT score, which are exclusively theater audiences, are awful for a blockbuster. I would also argue that the film is disappointingly safe and the action sequences do feel phoned in. I've already forgotten much of it.

action sequences definitely. Narrative - I’d 100% disagree on steroids. But that’s the beauty of movies. Subjective 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

$70M?? It’s not even at $25M after 3 weekends. Even Avatar legs from here gets it to only $53M. 

I mean, it's not that crazy. It'll be over $30M by the end of this weekend (with a nice boost after it looked like all was lost a week ago) and will have two months of Oscar buzz that'll keep it afloat. The fact there's so little coming out throughout January and February means December movies won't be leaving as quickly as they normally would. But yeah, $70M is probably only happening if it becomes the undeniable Best Picture frontrunner.

Edited December 28, 2021 by filmlover

[Legion Again]

I agree that expectations/surprise play an important role, but NWH is absolutely crushing those in addition to being in a different stratosphere of raw nums. Until PS started nobody thought it had a snowball’s chance in hell to beat TFA and IW openings with omicron on the rise, and thanks to @Cap we have the receipts on that.     
 

Obviously NWH is more of a preordained hit, but not to a 7x DOM gross degree.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[wildphantom]

5 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

It's Cinemascore and verified RT score, which are exclusively theater audiences, are awful for a blockbuster. I would also argue that the film is disappointingly safe and the action sequences do feel phoned in. I've already forgotten much of it.

for a blockbuster. Of which 99% are what that audience expects. 
Resurrections sure ain’t that. And we can always be certain that if cinemascore crowds don’t get exactly what they expect then they’ll give it the thumbs down. 
 

I mean, for me Resurrections is as much a commentary on popular mainstream cinema and it’s disdain for it as anything. So no wonder many don’t like what it’s saying. Although I suspect many of them don’t even understand the satire. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by wildphantom

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Idk go back to before presales started you had alot of people here skeptical NWH would even do around say $400M DOM or that $1 Billion was locked. 

 

Dune and GvK are very good results but I'd say films like Shang-Chi, NTTD or F9 are comparable to their successes. Nothing is comparable to NWH.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I feel like going only by expectations is a bit weird. Like let's say Fantastic Beasts does 800m worldwide next year. That would be amazing relative to expectations, but if Avatar 2 does like 2.5B+, would you really argue that the latter isn't the success of the year just because it was "expected"?

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

for a blockbuster. Of which 99% are what that audience expects. 
Resurrections sure ain’t that. And we can always be certain that if cinemascore crowds don’t get exactly what they expect then they’ll give it the thumbs down. 
 

I mean, for me Ressurections is as much a commentary on popular mainstream cinema and it’s disdain for it as anything. So no wonder many don’t like what it’s saying. Although I suspect many of them don’t even understand the satire. 

Yeah I understand your view, just don't think that people watching on streaming vs theatrical made a big difference to WOM in this case.

 

[WrathOfHan]

42 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Can WSS leg its way to like 70M?

Not unless it pulls a Green Book post-Oscar nominations. It's going to lose a bunch of screens by mid-January and wait for a re-expansion.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

With Spiderman: NWH getting there to over $700M+ DOM & more, i couldn’t help but feel sorry for Titanic’s DOM-spot getting pushed further and further down from 2nd place to 7th place (when SM: NWH outgrosses it, DOM) by the blockbusters from a half of the decade or more.

 

Star Wars: TFA, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame and now SM: NWH. Seems like a mega-blockbuster outgrossing at least one James Cameron blockbuster, seems to have gotten bizarrely easy suddenly.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

39 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I mean… you could argue them for 2nd and 3rd place, but cmon now 😛 

Spider-Man was always going to hit. Don’t find that impressive really. Not to take away from it at all. But what GVK and Dune is genuinely more impressive. Even I assumed Dune was dead. So did 75% of everyone here. 

[Landon1195]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

With Spiderman: NWH getting there to over $700M+ DOM & more, i couldn’t help but feel sorry for Titanic’s DOM-spot getting pushed further and further down from 2nd place to 7th place (when SM: NWH outgrosses it, DOM) by the blockbusters from a half of the decade or more.

 

Star Wars: TFA, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame and now SM: NWH. Seems like a mega-blockbuster outgrossing at least one James Cameron blockbuster, seems to have gotten bizarrely easy suddenly.

Star Wars (1977) will probably get kicked out of the top 20 in 2022. 

[Legion Again]

“Always going to hit” kind of elides then difference between 450M and 750M, which is a pretty big difference. For instance, a difference of 3 GvKs.   
 

If NWH was just puttering to like 625 from a weekend around TLJ perhaps there would be a serious argument here.

[Eric Loves Rey]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I feel like going only by expectations is a bit weird. Like let's say Fantastic Beasts does 800m worldwide next year. That would be amazing relative to expectations, but if Avatar 2 does like 2.5B+, would you really argue that the latter isn't the success of the year just because it was "expected"?

Well...yeah. I know not every single person will agree on this, and I completely, totally understand why people see it in that perspective. But frankly, I find surprise stories more interesting and more compelling. So in my subjective mindset, which is different from yours and others here, I would find Fantastic Beasts the bigger story in my personal, subjective opinion. I'm sorry if people find that ridiculous or off-base, but I'm just going by how I see things subjectively, and it doesn't take away from that Avatar gross nor NWH's gross at all.