AMERICA CHAVEZ IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS WEEKEND THREAD | Aka carbonara civil war thread | 187.42M OW

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

39 SUN. That with DIS FRI & SAT be 186.5 but I think FRI & SAT gotta increase, so 187.5-188.

So BvS legs would get it to (from 187m) 372m, for 400m it would need 2.14x that seems doable, especially considering nothing really happens before TG2.

So probably going to end around 410-420m.

On the one hand its an amazing opening, on the other hand, Saturday and Sunday were (compared to OD) kinda meh.

The IM is more like SW (TFA's Opening Weekend was 2.08, TLJ 2.10x, TROS 1.98x) DS2 (with 187 and 91m would be 2.05x). Endgame had 2.27x, NWH had 2.13x, IW had 2.42x, most other movies before that seem to be wrong comps because they had small previews.

At least not HP7-2 that had 1.86x.

[YM!]

I don’t see how it goes below a 2x multiple. 2.25-2.3 sure and that’s the likely range but not under 2.

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Had a feeling the Sunday was bad after EC comment of 185m or 190m.

 

In the contest, I predicted 15% over the Batman's weekend numbers and set them up almost perfectly that way...somehow, with a $154M OW estimate, I'm gonna be too high on the Sunday with $39.XXXM (when someone guessed $39M flat)...

 

That's a bad legs sign...BUT it was Mother's Day, and the movie is not "Mom", so it could be a one-off really bad day...

Edited May 9, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

and the movie is not "Mom"

🧐

[TwoMisfits]

Just looked - I'm actually surprised The Batman has had such good legs - 2.75X+, even with the early HBO Max drop (which I guess cut those legs off)...

 

So, I guess we know Strange is going under that leg multiplier...although probably over the total without a catastrophe with such little product the next 2 weeks.

 

This is when DC is kicking itself for moving Superpets...

[john2000]

190 ow is definately possible , with a 91,5 fr+pr and the estimated 59 sat.As for the legs we still have some ways to go ,lets see how the 2 and 3 weekend wil turn out.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

This is when DC is kicking itself for moving Superpets...

Not really, it's in a much better slot now since it's going to be without competition for a while after both Puss in Boots and Spider-Verse lost their fall dates.

Edited May 9, 2022 by filmlover

[Maggie]

TG2 would have done better released closer to DS2 than Jurassic.  Although i think it will be frontloaded, still Dominion is gonna cut its legs

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not really, it's in a much better slot now since it's going to be without competition for a while after both Puss in Boots and Spider-Verse lost their fall dates.

I agree, there's very little in the way of competition in August whereas had it stayed in May, it would have faced Jurassic World and Lightyear a few weeks after. 

 

 

[john2000]

Still cant understand why some of you predict such terrible legs, Bvs had a toxic reception and a B cinemascore and still managed  a multi of 2. Doc strange has way better reception......

Edited May 9, 2022 by john2000

[Maggie]

Just now, john2000 said:

Still cant understand why some of you predict such terrible legs, Bvs had a toxic reception and a B cinemascore and still managed  a multi of 2.

At what time Thursday did BvS open? Strange 2 had basically the whole day Thursday

[Juby]

Eternals legs: x2.31

Black Widow legs: x2.29

 

2nd Strange has much better reception than Eternals and isn't released on Disney+ as BW was. With 3 empty weeks ahead there's no way it will have worse legs than these two. If opening weekend is $187.5m than it will finish with at least $435m dom and around $1.1bl worldwide.

 

[Ohana]

I can't see how it won't reach 400m at least, but if that happens it would be 

Dr, Strange and The Multiplier of Madness 😳 

[hw64]

10 minutes ago, Juby said:

Eternals legs: x2.31

Black Widow legs: x2.29

 

2nd Strange has much better reception than Eternals and isn't released on Disney+ as BW was. With 3 empty weeks ahead there's no way it will have worse legs than these two. If opening weekend is $187.5m than it will finish with at least $435m dom and around $1.1bl worldwide.

 

It opened over 2.5x Eternals, and nearly 2.5x Black Widow. Legs are not independent of opening weekend, so this isn't a good argument.

Edited May 9, 2022 by hw64

[john2000]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

It opened over 2.5x Eternals, and nearly 2.5x Black Widow. Legs are not independent of opening weekend.

Thats true however even with that big of an ow a multi of only 2 would be weak af , especially when the reception is decent.

[M37]

28 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Still cant understand why some of you predict such terrible legs, Bvs had a toxic reception and a B cinemascore and still managed  a multi of 2. Doc strange has way better reception......

Different market post-pandemic: GA is smaller & more selective, more of a skew towards opening weekend, shorter legs in general. Also not that the reception is "bad", but that it's both not loved by fans (repeat views) nor really family friendly is going to impact long term grossing potential

 

CACW, Iron Man 3, and Ultron, had multipliers of 2.28x, 2.35x and 2.40x respectively from this same May weekend. That's the baseline for Strange, though less competition in next few weeks, but sub-$400 domestic is a plausible outcome from a ~$190 OW. Probably needs $370M by Memorial Day to cross that threshold.

Edited May 9, 2022 by M37
typo

[Cooper Legion]

The true FSS is only low 150s, that’s a serious drag on legs relative to some of the comps being thrown around.    
 

BW was also pretty previewloaded but summer weekdays.

[AnDr3s]

after nwh i expected this doing 1.3b-1.4b tbh

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I will be disappointed if the domestic total comes in under CM.

[charlie Jatinder]

The weekend multiple is mostly useless because in this weekend you have 1 excellent day on THU, 1 good day on FRI, 1 average day on sat and 1 below avg day on SUN.

What matters more is where SUN has landed than what weekend is.