AMERICA CHAVEZ IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS WEEKEND THREAD | Aka carbonara civil war thread | 187.42M OW

[SLAM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Firestarter is going to flop so hard. Wouldn't be at all surprised by a sub-$5M opening.

I think Family Camp could beat Firestarter lol 🤣

[filmlover]

Just now, Eric loves Rey said:

I saw the trailer for this in the theaters a while ago, and when I heard the kid say "Liar liar, pants on fire" unironically, I knew this movie was in trouble.

The fact they announced it would be on Peacock the same day as theaters when they began marketing it was pretty telling that the studio had no faith in it, despite the strategic Friday the 13th release date choice.

[AnDr3s]

haven't seen a full packed theather in my area since joker 

[SupermanLego]

7 minutes ago, exomassey said:

It’s clear the movie is “crumbling”, for a number of different reasons.

For comparison, I suspect the 2nd weekend will go below the Batmans 2nd weekend.

 

However a film with Strange and Wanda opening to 450m globally without China, Russia and other homophobic countries is a win. Frontloaded or not.

 

This was not touted as just a strange vs wanda movies, this was considered an event movie. No need to spin it. 

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, M37 said:

I was going to push back on this, and argue Saturday is more relevant given the potential for Sunday to be affected by outside factors, but decided to run the math first. And well, numbers speak for themselves ...

 

Here is every April/May MCU release since The Avengers, with total DOM compared to opening Sat & Sun

Year	Title	SAT Ratio	SUN Ratio
2019	Endgame	7.86	9.50
2018	Infinity War	8.26	9.80
2017	GOTG2	7.60	9.96
2016	Civil War	6.67	9.62
2015	Ultron	8.06	9.05
2013	Iron Man 3	6.53	9.45
	AVERAGE	7.50	9.56

I don't really get what you are implying there but SUN is preferable because its one day later SAT so has one day more of trending info.

 

Ofc SAT ratio can be worked with as well.

 

Though its not exact science, have to make adjustments and stuff.

 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't really get what you are implying there but SUN is preferable because its one day later SAT so has one day more of trending info.

 

Ofc SAT ratio can be worked with as well.

 

Though its not exact science, have to make adjustments and stuff.

 

They’re pointing out that there has been less variance in total/sun than total/sat for mcu summer kickoffs, suggesting that the former is likely a more reliable metric. I probably would have posted the coefficient of variation for each to be explicit but it’s pretty clear which is more consistent from eyeballing.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[exomassey]

7 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

This was not touted as just a strange vs wanda movies, this was considered an event movie. No need to spin it. 

Yes and it still opened to 450m without China and Russia.
 

Please stop. 

[Taruseth]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't really get what you are implying there but SUN is preferable because its one day later SAT so has one day more of trending info.

 

Ofc SAT ratio can be worked with as well.

 

Though its not exact science, have to make adjustments and stuff.

 

That's what they are implying, they just wrote, that their first thought was different because Sunday could theoretically be influenced more by holidays etc. (but that obviously didn't turn out to be the case (because they all opened on weekends without holidays)). But the mathematics showed, that it was the other way around and Sunday was like you suggested indeed more reliable.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

They’re pointing out that there has been less variance in total/sun than total/sat for mcu summer kickoffs, suggesting that the former is likely a more reliable metric. I probably would have posted the coefficient of variation for each to be explicit but it’s pretty clear which is more consistent from eyeballing.

DS2 easily the most frontloaded IM-wise of all of these, it'll already have banked a lot more from Thu/Fri than similar Suns, so not sure how useful the comps will be.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

DS2 easily the most frontloaded IM-wise of all of these, it'll already have banked a lot more from Thu/Fri than similar Suns, so not sure how useful the comps will be. 

 

25 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

 

Personally I would say that postOW gross/Sat and PostOW gross/Sun should be slightly more accurate since it uses the info that is currently “locked in” (first 3 days) more effectively — but I’m not going to calculate them right now, so

Could try postOW gross as a regression on Sat and Sun.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[YM!]

To add on, I think starting at 3 pm especially for geek based movies will cause a bigger frontloaded multiple to the data. I expect 5-6.5x multiples to be the norm for CBMs with a 3 pm start.

Edited May 9, 2022 by YourMother

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

 

Could try postOW gross as a regression on Sat and Sun.

Quick comps for Sun using postOW gross/Sun instead (approximately, I didn't bother with exact numbers here) 

 

Endgame comp gives 404m.

IW comp gives 426m (lol).

GOTG2 comp gives 430m (lol)

CW comp gives 393m

AoU comp gives 395m

IM3 comp gives 400m

Edited May 9, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[XXR & Friends]

20 minutes ago, exomassey said:

Yes and it still opened to 450m without China and Russia.
 

Please stop. 

Concern trolling (and just general trolling of Marvel) is his only personality trait.

[stripe]

Zero competition for almost a month
Moderate runtime

Premium formats
Summer legs incoming

Fresh reviews
Standard OW multiplier

GA moderate to solid reactions

 

But some still claiming this will have a worse run than BvS

 

Even history is on DS2 side to reach 400M+. Until now every MCU film (even those with mixed reactions) had easily over 2x multiplier

[SupermanLego]

23 minutes ago, exomassey said:

Yes and it still opened to 450m without China and Russia.
 

Please stop. 

Yes, that's good. Still don't try to spin it lol

[Dragoncaine]

40 minutes ago, exomassey said:

It’s clear the movie is “crumbling”, for a number of different reasons.

For comparison, I suspect the 2nd weekend will go below the Batmans 2nd weekend.

 

However a film with Strange and Wanda opening to 450m globally without China, Russia and other homophobic countries is a win. Frontloaded or not.

 

2nd weekend below $66m would be pretty wild

[Liiviig 1998]

Good opening but slightly lower than anticipated. IM is suprisingly weak.  legs could be short on this but lets wait and see.

 

was thinking  1.17-1.2bn on friday

 

then it went down to under CW Worldwide

 

Under CW Domestic doesnt seem all that crazy either but i prsonaly think it will fall around CM numbers domestically.

 

Under 1B Club seems way too quick to jump on .

 

Reactions here are more positive   but general reactions seems mixed to positive  7/10 ish  . Disney really marketed this an an event movie with major camoes  but it turned out more like a standalone sequel .

[Mr Terrific]

BREAKING

SupermanLego is concerned about spin. 
 

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Quick comps for Sun using postOW gross/Sun instead (approximately, I didn't bother with exact numbers here) 

 

Endgame comp gives 404m.

IW comp gives 426m (lol).

GOTG2 comp gives 430m (lol)

CW comp gives 393m

AoU comp gives 395m

IM3 comp gives 400m

But it's a bit of a catch-22: a film that has already banked more before grossing a specific value [X] on Sunday implies heavier fronloading, demand trailing off, weaker legs incoming

 

Which why you see such consistency even in your method, with the two outliers being the leggiest films of the bunch (2.66x and 2.63x vs OW respectively)

 

If I get time later, going to run the same math on other OW time periods, see if consistency w/r/t Sunday holds

 

[exomassey]

2 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

Yes, that's good. Still don't try to spin it lol

At the end of the day that’s what the movie is though just Strange with Wanda and that is probably why it’s not surpassing expectations.

 

Marvel marketed it as an event but at the end of the day it’s not.