WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[TomCruiseTop]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Shoot I didn't know there was a difference. Either way, if this is considered a success for Lightyear by some people, Kotm must've actually made a profit theatrically with a 177M opening at 170M budget compared to Lightyear's 85M opening on a 200M budget

I'd say a flop gets close to its total budget (prod+marketing) and a bomb misses it by a huge margin. 

[druv10]

10 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Lightyear? More like lightyear at the box office for disney

Considering Disney still has Thor, BP and Avatar to come, they're gonna win the year handily.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, TomCruiseTop said:

I'd say a flop gets close to its total budget (prod+marketing) and a bomb misses it by a huge margin. 

200M*2.5 = 500M 

 

Predicted WW ~350M-375M 

 

I'd say it's a bomb. If FB3 and Solo is a bomb then this is too.

[titanic2187]

Never I thought lightyear will fail to top sing2 but now lightyear is looking for a 150m total at best. If minion 2 managed to be a hit, we are looking at illumination dominance over 2022 animation box office. 

[Noctis]

What are we doing? 

 

Its opening in the US in undeniably underwhelming, but its overseas debuts are outright terrible. $34.6m OS OW? That's horrendous for a $200m budget film. Many films with massive budgets save face or at least some face when they don't do well domestically by having respectable international runs. 

 

You're talking about a movie that will likely cap out at $275m WW - flat out bomb. Honestly, the range is $250m-$290m but it's not sniffing $300m WW. 

[Noctis]

10 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

200M*2.5 = 500M 

 

Predicted WW ~350M-375M 

 

I'd say it's a bomb. If FB3 and Solo is a bomb then this is too.

 

FB3 doubled its budget, so it didn't bomb. But that's the most I can say about it. At least it did $400m WW. 

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

What are we doing? 

 

Its opening in the US in undeniably underwhelming, but its overseas debuts are outright terrible. $34.6m OS OW? That's horrendous for a $200m budget film. Many films with massive budgets save face or at least some face when they don't do well domestically by having respectable international runs. 

 

You're talking about a movie that will likely cap out at $275m WW - flat out bomb. Honestly, the range is $250m-$290m but it's not sniffing $300m WW. 

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

FB3 doubled its budget, so it didn't bomb. But that's the most I can say about it. At least it did $400m WW. 

It's not just doubling it's budget. Nowadays the multiplier above the budget to meet is 2.5x. As to take into account marketing costs, overheads, participations etc. As well as revenue splits that actually go to the studio.

[TwoMisfits]

22 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Shoot I didn't know there was a difference. Either way, if this is considered a success for Lightyear by some people, Kotm must've actually made a profit theatrically with a 177M opening at 170M budget compared to Lightyear's 85M opening on a 200M budget

 

I think someone did the flop vs bomb calculus somewhere...I think if you can't make your production budget in theatrical revenue WW, you're a catastrophic bomb.  Next level is regular bomb, then flop, then disappointment, then good, then great, etc, etc...

[Mulder]

Lightyear is such a disaster its insane. This was a movie people (including me) thought could push 100+ on OW. Disney must be pissed right now, despite their copium over this.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think someone did the flop vs bomb calculus somewhere...I think if you can't make your production budget in theatrical revenue WW, you're a catastrophic bomb.  Next level is regular bomb, then flop, then disappointment, then good, then great, etc, etc...

Gimme the calculus

[grim22]

 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

Gimme the calculus

 

It was awhile ago (like preCovid), when we had this exact discussion and someone posted suggested levels for big budget movies...

 

It was like 1x or less production budget - catastrophic bomb

1.5x or less - bomb

1.75x or less - flop

2.00x or less - disappointment

2.5x or less - good

2.51x or more - great

3x or more - well, you know how it's going...

 

[Deliloaf]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

And it's got a big Tom Cruise fan, South Korea, opening this Wednesday.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

lol this is true. Even though the movie claims it was Andy's favorite movie in 1995, it doesn't at all feel like an action movie from the era in even a homage sort of way. Wasted opportunity.

[Bigscrubnus]

Exhibitor relations be like

 

 

[The Dark Alfred]

5 minutes ago, Deliloaf said:

And it's got a big Tom Cruise fan, South Korea, opening this Wednesday.

 

It's actually tracking ahead in OS, still expecting it to finish higher domestically. Looks like 600m both ways and 1.2 billion is happening.

[Hades]

46 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Considering Disney still has Thor, BP and Avatar to come, they're gonna win the year handily.

 

After buying everyone and having more than half the market share they had better..and by a distance.If not heads should roll

[sabrecmc]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

lol this is true. Even though the movie claims it was Andy's favorite movie in 1995, it doesn't at all feel like an action movie from the era in even a homage sort of way. Wasted opportunity.

It is a bit surprising with the success of nostalgia-grabs lately that Pixar didn't go for something more along those lines.  People wanted Cartoon Top Gun or Cartoon Star Wars, not Cartoon Interstellar.

 

From my own family and friends with children, the biggest factor is not so much no interest as simply waiting to see it at home where it is cheaper and, just as importantly, vastly more convenient. Movies like TG2 and JW3 feel more like the kind to see on the big screen or you have missed a vital part of the experience, whereas everyone in my little sample is pretty comfy watching animated movies at home, and that experience, curling up on the sofa with a big popcorn and dollar store candy, feels just as fun as being at the movies, if not more so. It's really a nice family night. I'd just as soon wait for that, which is what we are choosing to do.

[IronJimbo]

Honestly there's nothing that warms the heart more than a Disney flop