WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[The Dark Alfred]

Yea, expecting Elvis to win the weekend. Possibly three different films on top, Elvis wins Friday, JWD climbs to top on Sat and TGM triumphs on Sunday. Due to Thu previews Elvis taking overall crown.

[EmpireCity]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’ll take TGM honestly. The only one I think actually gets to $30M

 

Uh.... no.  

[scoobysaurus]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Zero.  

 

There go my hopes and dreams. Oh well I won't complain about 2 weekends on top. 

[M37]

17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It would be an utter disaster if Elvis didn't win #1 with over 30. All the numbers I see don't imply under that. I still don't know about a 40+ overperformance (which is on the table), so I'll safely say 35. 

 

Maybe there's a scenario Top Gun has another miracle hold but that would require smaller than 25% drop which I don't see happening since there's no Fathers Day, etc to alleviate this weekend. High20s should still be obtainable,.

 

Fallen Kingdom's 3rd weekend was 53%. Ant-Man and Wasp opened to 75.8m however so stronger comp. That said, JWD will have a steeper drop with the holiday weekend so around 53-55% is reasonable prediction for, let's say, 26.5-ish. I don't really see any scenario when this wins or places 2nd.

 

 

 

 

There isn’t a whole lot of data for Elvis in the tracking thread, but what is there suggests a $2.5-$3.0 million for Thursday + EA right now (and heavy skew to EA). I don’t see it clearing $30 unless that bumps up to $3.5M+, and given how adult dramas have performed over last year plus, not holding my breath 

[Brainbug]

I really do root for Black Phone as well next weekend. The horror genre needs a hit, reviews looks very promising and its counter-programming for literally every other movie in the marketplace. So together with Elvis and the holdovers, well probably get a good indicator next weekend to what extent the box office truly has recovered so far.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, M37 said:

There isn’t a whole lot of data for Elvis in the tracking thread, but what is there suggests a $2.5-$3.0 million for Thursday + EA right now (and heavy skew to EA). I don’t see it clearing $30 unless that bumps up to $3.5M+, and given how adult dramas have performed over last year plus, not holding my breath 

The Lost City got to 30.4m with 2.5m Thursday and early access

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

There isn’t a whole lot of data for Elvis in the tracking thread, but what is there suggests a $2.5-$3.0 million for Thursday + EA right now (and heavy skew to EA). I don’t see it clearing $30 unless that bumps up to $3.5M+, and given how adult dramas have performed over last year plus, not holding my breath 

I don't think you can use tracking to indicate how Elvis will do as I imagine it'll benefit from walk ins. 

[Mulder]

My one worry with Elvis is its very much older audience focused and I worry Top Gun: Maverick has already filled that niche. We'll see though. Hoping it can do 40+.

[Jonwo]

Just now, Mulder said:

My one worry with Elvis is its very much older audience focused and I worry Top Gun: Maverick has already filled that niche. We'll see though. Hoping it can do 40+.

Elvis is a very different movie from Top Gun Maverick, the two can easily co-exist. 

[AniNate]

Edit wrong thread

Edited June 20, 2022 by AniNate

[M37]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Uh.... no.  

Uh, we’ll see 

 

The potential is there, but really depends on how wide a demo net it ultimately casts. If it skews older, then I don’t think it gets there

[M37]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The Lost City got to 30.4m with 2.5m Thursday and early access

Not quite the same genre IMO, and also we’re now in summer, so IM should be lower

 

Didn’t expect this much reaction to my backhanded comment about Elvis, so either I’m on an island here (which is entirely possible) … or next weekend’s thread is going to be meltdown city if it does indeed open soft 

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not quite the same genre IMO, and also we’re now in summer, so IM should be lower

 

Didn’t expect this much reaction to my backhanded comment about Elvis, so either I’m on an island here (which is entirely possible) … or next weekend’s thread is going to be meltdown city if it does indeed open soft 

 

 

But still... Why would Elvis be this absurdly frontloaded for summer if it still appeals to similar adults and/or women audience? You'd be predicting a lower ratio than Rocketman's opening in 2019

[TomCruiseTop]

Folks, think about the level of cultural impact Elvis had. It will open to 200m. 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not quite the same genre IMO, and also we’re now in summer, so IM should be lower

 

Didn’t expect this much reaction to my backhanded comment about Elvis, so either I’m on an island here (which is entirely possible) … or next weekend’s thread is going to be meltdown city if it does indeed open soft 

 

 

I am a long-standing Elvis skeptic and I think you’re on an island here. Expecting at least 3 from tracking thread and that should take it to 30+ comfortably, with a decent chance of more like 3.5->40

[Cheddar Please]

We hit 80 pages 😳

[M37]

12 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

But still... Why would Elvis be this absurdly frontloaded for summer if it still appeals to similar adults and/or women audience? You'd be predicting a lower ratio than Rocketman's opening in 2019

Lost city was an original comedy/action, no existing IP, more similar to Free Guy than a biopic of a celebrity/musician.  Rocketman had $1.75M from Thursday, plus another $600K from a Fandango screening like 2 weeks before release, had basically and 11x, and since previews have gone as share of weekend since then, why should we not expect the IM to be lower?

 

[wildphantom]

 

Elvis will lead on Friday, but when Saturday comes…..

 

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

We hit 80 pages 😳

 

In the JW Opening Weekend thread back in 2015, we barely reached Saturday at 80 pages.

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

those were the days

Spoiler

Also JURASSIC WORLD FUCK YES

 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Lost city was an original comedy/action, no existing IP, more similar to Free Guy than a biopic of a celebrity/musician.  Rocketman had $1.75M from Thursday, plus another $600K from a Fandango screening like 2 weeks before release, had basically and 11x, and since previews have gone as share of weekend since then, why should we not expect the IM to be lower?

 

You're forgetting inflation, Elvis has PLF unlike Rocketman, and Elvis has more buzz + bigger star with Tom Hanks? Rocketman was R-rated and Elvis being PG-13 should reach a wider audience

Edited June 20, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash