WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[scoobysaurus]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I think Elvis is going to be #1 this upcoming weekend, even if it eeks out a victory.

Right, totally forgot about that one. Still hoping JWD holds out lol. It'll be an interesting weekend nevertheless 

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, scoobysaurus said:

So given that there's a few weeks before Thor and Minions hit the scene, how many weekends do you guys reckon JWD is gonna stay on top? 

 

I think Elvis grosses 38 - 42M next weekend and since Top Gun will probably start having bigger daily grosses than Dominion after that weekend, i dont see it beeing #1 again.

[Mulder]

Went to look back and man Jurassic World vs Inside Out in 2015 was insane. Both did crazy good numbers and Inside Out is what ended up dethroning JW from #1 in its fourth weekend. Though the fact that all three Jurassic World films had at least 2 weekends at #1 is impressive honestly.

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, scoobysaurus said:

Right, totally forgot about that one. Still hoping JWD holds out lol. It'll be an interesting weekend nevertheless 

 

Definetly. Next weekend we will have 5 possible 20M+ grossers, unless either Lightyear collapses or Black Phone refuses to resurrect the sleeping horror genre. The Top 3 - Elvis, Dominion, Top Gun - could be a very close race, that will be interesting for sure to see which comes out on top. Like i said, i would bet Elvis takes it.

[scoobysaurus]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I think Elvis grosses 38 - 42M next weekend and since Top Gun will probably start having bigger daily grosses than Dominion after that weekend, i dont see it beeing #1 again.

For sports fans we have a thing called reverse Jinx and I truly hope that's what this is! 😄 I'm gonna go with @CJohn's 3 way fight between JWD, TGM and Elvis - that keeps me hopeful 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Mulder said:

Went to look back and man Jurassic World vs Inside Out in 2015 was insane. Both did crazy good numbers and Inside Out is what ended up dethroning JW from #1 in its fourth weekend. Though the fact that all three Jurassic World films had at least 2 weekends at #1 is impressive honestly.

 

Jurassic World grossing 106M in its 2nd weekend and IO at the same time opening to 90M was always kind of proof to me that two megahits can perfectly co-exist together even if they target similar audiences (familys in this case) as long as they are, you know ... something that people actually want to see.

[Cheddar Please]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Jurassic World grossing 106M in its 2nd weekend and IO at the same time opening to 90M was always kind of proof to me that two megahits can perfectly co-exist together even if they target similar audiences (familys in this case) as long as they are, you know ... something that people actually want to see.

This is why I was disappointed when JWD not just underperformed, but took Top Gun with it. It was really just a lose-lose situation that weekend

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

This is why I was disappointed when JWD not just underperformed, but took Top Gun with it. It was really just a lose-lose situation that weekend

 

I think regarding this we still have to consider two factors that were less important pre-pandemic: The gross-inflating factor of the ever expanding PLF formats (meaning loosing them hits the movie hard even if the admission decline weekend-to-weekend isnt bad) - this is what we saw with Top Guns 3rd weekend - and secondly, a still limited audience pool post-pandemic. Im with @M37 there, i think there are less people at the moment who are willing to go to theaters because of various reasons which makes competition harder for all films.

 

I do hope this is something that will be less of an issue in 2023 when the pandemic and its consequences slowly ease off.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Jonwo]

I'm pretty confident Elvis will open at number 1, I think if that happens, it'll be Baz Luhrmann's first film to debut at number 1 since Romeo + Juliet 25 years ago.

[JohnnyGossamer]

31 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is Elvis vs TG2 vs JW3 for the top spot next weekend. All of them should do around 30M.

I expect the order to be....

Elvis 

Top Gun

Jurassic

 

Elvis I expect to break out just a little win the weekend somewhat comfortably. TGM will drop something like 25%+/-. Jurassic will drop something like 50%+.

Edited June 20, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[M37]

28 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is Elvis vs TG2 vs JW3 for the top spot next weekend. All of them should do around 30M.

I’ll take TGM honestly. The only one I think actually gets to $30M

[Jiffy]

Any numbers for Monday?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

It would be an utter disaster if Elvis didn't win #1 with over 30. All the numbers I see don't imply under that. I still don't know about a 40+ overperformance (which is on the table), so I'll safely say 35. 

 

Maybe there's a scenario Top Gun has another miracle hold but that would require smaller than 25% drop which I don't see happening since there's no Fathers Day, etc to alleviate this weekend. High20s should still be obtainable,.

 

Fallen Kingdom's 3rd weekend was 53%. Ant-Man and Wasp opened to 75.8m however so stronger comp. That said, JWD will have a steeper drop with the holiday weekend so around 53-55% is reasonable prediction for, let's say, 26.5-ish. I don't really see any scenario when this wins or places 2nd.

 

 

 

 

[DAJK]

Next weekend I'm feeling

 

Elvis - 38

Top Gun - 34

Jurassic - 30

Lightyear - 25

Black Phone - 20

[FilmFincher]

My local IMAX in the UK is doing a 4-way split between Lightyear/Top Gun/Jurassic World/Elvis, in that order. 

 

Guess it's time for round 3!

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Eric Lightyear said:

 

Dude, we get it.

 

I actually don't think that you do get it....

[Jonwo]

Anything over $40m for Elvis would be a win for WB. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It would be an utter disaster if Elvis didn't win #1 with over 30. All the numbers I see don't imply under that. I still don't know about a 40+ overperformance (which is on the table), so I'll safely say 35. 

 

Maybe there's a scenario Top Gun has another miracle hold but that would require smaller than 25% drop which I don't see happening since there's no Fathers Day, etc to alleviate this weekend. High20s should still be obtainable,.

 

Fallen Kingdom's 3rd weekend was 53%. Ant-Man and Wasp opened to 75.8m however so stronger comp. That said, JWD will have a steeper drop with the holiday weekend so around 53-55% is reasonable prediction for, let's say, 26.5-ish. I don't really see any scenario when this wins or places 2nd.

 

 

 

 

TGM would have to drop around 33% from it's actual that we're going to get 44.5 to 45 to go under 30 next weekend. I actually expect it do around 32 +/- next weekend. I agree on the other two. I think Elvis can do 40+ but 35+ seems reasonable.

[EmpireCity]

50 minutes ago, scoobysaurus said:

So given that there's a few weeks before Thor and Minions hit the scene, how many weekends do you guys reckon JWD is gonna stay on top? 

 

Zero.  

[Mulder]

Hope Black Phone can get to 20+ next weekend. Its budget is pretty high for a horror movie.