Weekend thread 7/15-7/17 | Actuals: Thor 4 46.63M, Minions 26.83, Crawdads 17.25, TGM 12.26, Elvis 8, Paws of Fury 6.31

[John2015]

16 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

 

If Marcel's ratios play out the same as last weekend, I'll have nailed the estimate ($550K).

 

Poor drop for JWD, might not hit $5M. 

 

Everything else is in line with expectations. 

 

 

Harris is actually doing better than the expectation.  Variety predicted that Harris would be lucky to gross more than $1 million for the whole weekend.

Edited July 16, 2022 by John2015

[Marcos12]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have got 2 words for you. 3D and Exchange Rates.

 

I've to check data, but safe to assume that DSitMoM is watched by more people internationally than Iron Man 3 excluding China and Russia.

 

Edit: Realised the convo was abt Thor 4, not DSitMoM. So mostly ignore the above. BUT I think ideally Thor 4 should have done those DSitMoM numbers atleast. DSitMoM should have done probably 20% better.

 

You forget about inflation and  growth of the Overseas emerging markets that happened in that period, it was much harder to make 1 billion in 2013 than it is now in 2022, there's a reason why there were only 5 movies with 1 billion+ by the time Iron Man 3 was released, and now we have 50 movies that have reached that mark...

[The Panda]

45 minutes ago, Shawn said:

This community started at a time when early numbers didn't come until Saturday and there were no such things as preview grosses, except for the occasional midnight show, to guide early weekend discussion.

 

Are numbers fun to have? Sure. Are they the most important thing? No. These forums wouldn't still be around without the conversations, friendships, and rivalries that form during the busy and slow times of the box office.

 

Given the choice to have numbers provided by someone with a toxic attitude toward a community that's close to 20 years old versus getting later numbers without that kind of personality poisoning the vibe... it's a clear cut decision. Veterans here know it's a matter of time before someone else steps in and leaks that info anyway.

 

Come for the numbers, stay for the people. That's a foreign idea to some, but not to the heart of this place.

And for 90% of weekends I could honestly care less what the numbers actually are. Good vibes are the most important thing for any forum.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Remember when the numbers thread of the week got taken over by people posting photoshops of Michael Fassbender's dick?

 

That's what makes me come back.

 

Well....an example of it. 😳

[Eric Prime]

3 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Remember when the numbers thread of the week got taken over by people posting photoshops of Michael Fassbender's dick?

 

That's what makes me come back.

 

Well....an example of it. 😳

A pity we didn't see this same thing for Mr. Wolf 😢

[Cooper Legion]

19 minutes ago, John2015 said:

 

Harris is actually doing better than the expectation.  Variety predicted that Harris would be lucky to gross more than $1 million for the whole weekend.

Don’t know what variety is smoking there, had it low 2s on Monday.

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Minions 8.13

TBP 1.62

JWD 1.41

Harris 700

you could have made 4 separate posts. not only you are not apologizing but also eliminating 3 extra posts, keeping the page count low. 

 

[LegendaryBen]

TBP only lost 32% despite it is available on PVOD. It will finish more than Scream 5 DOM by like $5m+.

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

I blame Exchange Rates for Dominions run probably coming in slightly under 1B. Not Dominions fault! Exchange rates just suck.

Still a chance 

[Shawn Robbins]

Craw 7.275 with previews

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Craw 7.275 with previews

Misread this as "Cray" which...ya know still works

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

you could have made 4 separate posts. not only you are not apologizing but also eliminating 3 extra posts, keeping the page count low. 

 

High page counts are overrated!

[LegendaryBen]

19 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Craw 7.275 with previews

If older audiences and WOM spreads well, I'm hoping for a number close to $17M OW and a possible 4 multiplier.

Edited July 16, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-thor-love-and-thunder-paws-of-fury-where-the-crawdads-sing-2-1235064783/

 

Quote

Updated, Saturday AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…The wearing down of the MCU luster is unfortunately being seen as Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunder is having a great fall with a -68% drop for a second weekend that’s estimated to be around $46.5M. While the Taika Waititi-directed movie improved beyond its high $130M estimates last weekend into the $144M range, it’s clear those sour audience exits of a B+ CinemaScore and 3 1/2 stars are taking their toll.

 

Meanwhile, Sony/3000 Pictures/Hello Sunshine’s feature take of the Delia Owens novel Where the Crawdads Sing is coming in ahead of its $9M-$10M projections with $15.5M-$16M in 3rd, a small win here for a $24 production before P&A. Some rival estimates believe the pic might be able to hit $17M.  The 74% skewing female movie is winning over its core audience in its big screen treatment with 4 1/2 stars on PostTrak and an A- CinemaScore.

 

 

On the downside, Paramount’s animated feature Paws of Fury isn’t punching with a $6.2M opening. If you want to know where families want to spend their money, it’s on the third weekend of Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions: Rise of Gru which is racking up $25.3M in second place, -45%, for a running total of $261.8M.

 

[M37]

Just throwing this out there: I’m expecting decent Saturday increases across the board this weekend, in line with mid-June Sat/Fri ratios

[The Dark Alfred]

Another terrific Friday for TGM en route to 700m. Closest summer release to TGM is Nemo with $2.7m. We are witnessing the: Best. Summer. Run. Ever.

 

Biggest domestic 8th Friday:

 

1 Feb 5, 2010 Avatar $6,160,319 3,000 $2,053 $612,653,642 2 Feb 6, 1998 Titanic $5,712,448   2,956    $1,932    $320,040,276 3 Feb 14, 2003 Chicago $3,996,000 2,268 $1,762 $72,100,000 4 Jan 27, 2017 La La Land $3,453,130 3,136 $1,101 $97,912,502 5 Jul 15, 2022 Top Gun: Maverick $3,400,000 3,292 $1,033 $609,362,568

Edited July 16, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Grebacio]

10 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-thor-love-and-thunder-paws-of-fury-where-the-crawdads-sing-2-1235064783/

 

 

Paws of Fury will barely beat Spirit 2, aka, the lowest animated OW since 2020.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Grebacio

[filmlover]

Astronomical drop for Thor but hey, what can you do?

 

Solid opening start for Crawdads, which should pull about $16-17M for the weekend. The $24M budget guarantees this will go down as a minor win for the studio, even if the dismal reviews and a marketing campaign that was never sure of how to sell it to non-book readers (lol at "Taylor Swift did a song for this" being a main selling point in a desperate attempt to age down the audience for a 60s-set murder mystery) ensured a breakout wasn't to be.

 

Paws of Fury is a dud to the surprise of no one considering how cheap it looked. A footnote in what's been a stellar 2022 for Paramount otherwise. Mrs. Harris did as well as it was ever going to, I suppose.

 

Top Gun, Elvis, and The Black Phone still slaying. It's pretty cool that both Toms (Cruise and Hanks) have entered the list of actors to headline or co-headline $100M+ blockbusters across five different decades going back to the 80s.

[LegendaryBen]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just throwing this out there: I’m expecting decent Saturday increases across the board this weekend, in line with mid-June Sat/Fri ratios

hoping that indicates Crawdads for a $5M Saturday or more.

[vale9001]

So crawdads is the next The notebook, bohemian and the greatest showman?. 

 

45ish on metacritic and 7-8/10 average on imdb. 

Edited July 16, 2022 by vale9001