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Eric Duncan

The Fall Guy | May 3, 2024 | Universal | Ryan Gosling, Emily Blunt | Based off the 80s TV show

By Eric Duncan, in Box Office Discussion

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

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This looks like a blast. Gosling showing those comedy chops again. Some of it seems very Nice Guy ish. -That is such a underated movie that deserved to do better. Throw in Emily Blunt. Yeah its a paycheck role for her but she seems to be having fun. David Leitch is a love or hate him director for most people. I am on the love side for the most part. Hobbs and Shaw is his weakest movie  and that is still entertaining. Surprised they are not moving it to summer but the sooner the better if it turns out to be a a fun as it looks.

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

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https://thequorum.com/universals-not-messing-around-with-the-fall-guy/
 

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There’s something magical about the A-list two-hander, movies that unite two top-tier movie stars on the big screen. When these films work, the charisma and star power of the leads seem magnified, as if the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

 

 

Oddly, we don’t get very many of these. They are a bit of a rare breed. That’s what makes us especially excited for THE FALL GUY, starring the endlessly likable duo of Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in what looks like an inspired pairing. We’re also excited by Universal’s campaign for the film, which began with the release of a poster and trailer last Thursday.

 

What do we like about the campaign? First, Universal is early. The film is scheduled to open on March 1st, meaning things kicked off a full four months before release. It is the first of the upcoming March release to have a trailer out. (Yes, Warner Bros. has put out material for DUNE: PART TWO, which opens on March 15th, but that campaign started when DUNE was slated to open in October of this year).

 

Second, the trailer for FALL is unusually long at 3:20. Yet, it doesn’t reveal too much nor overstay its welcome. With most trailers running nearly two minutes, we love that Universal decided to break the rules. This trailer needed to be longer, so the studio made it longer. Conventions be damned.

 

Third, the studio decided to run the trailer on TV during football on Sunday. Yes, we see lots of movie spots during the NFL, but rarely do we see one for a film that is four months away. What’s even more remarkable is that Universal bought a 120-second spot and aired a slightly edited version of the full trailer. A 30-second spot during a live sporting event is expensive. Multiply that by four, and you get a sense of the financial commitment given to FALL.

This is important because it signals that the studio is committed to the film and willing to buck conventions in terms of timing, length, and media buys to sell this movie. Audiences can tell when a studio supports and understands the DNA of a film, and right now, Universal is effectively conveying that message.

 

With that in mind, how is FALL tracking? The title was added to The Quorum this week, and it arrives on tracking at an elevated level. FALL belongs to the “Medium” group, meaning we believe it to have a production budget above $50M. The average opening weekend for films in this group is $22M, with OPPENHEIMER topping the list with an $82M debut. Most of the titles in this group grossed under $15M in their initial frame.

 

Early tracking suggests that FALL is on a path to open towards the high end of the group. Looking at the table below, the early tracking data is quite strong. Awareness for FALL is at 30%, above the average of 24% for other medium titles at the same distance from release.

 

Interest sits at 47%, well ahead of the average of 41%. FALL is also tracking above the norm in a desire to see the film in a theater (42% vs. the average of 37%) and willingness to pay to see it (57% vs. the average of 50%).

 

The tracking data suggests that Universal has decided to back the right horse. And these numbers only partially reflect the impact of the entire campaign launch, meaning these numbers may go up in the coming days and weeks. All in all, for lovers of the two-handed action comedy, it looks like FALL is poised to be a successful addition to the genre.

 

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

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17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I like it. I enjoyed Bullet Train as well. Ryan Gosling is really good at this as well. 

Yep I got a feeling this movie could be big if it delivers as a crowdpleaser.  Barbenheimer rivals Gosling and Blunt look like they have great chemistry. Leitch delivers the action as expected . Universal will push this hard in Jan and Feb during the NFL Playoffs and Superbowl. If Argyle delivers  they could have a 1 2 punch in Feb and March with the two of them. 

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