A Very Queer Thanksgiving Weekend Thread | We Here. We Queer. Move On. | 3-Day/5-Day: Black Panther 45.9/64, Strange World 11.9/18.6, Glass Onion 9.2/13.3, Devotion 6/9, The Menu 5.2/7.3 | Daddy Cameron, please save us!

[wildphantom]

Strange World is pretty good. The third act reveal is a doozy. Good, not great Disney…but with an essential message that’s depressingly taken a back seat to the woke queer talk that’s incredibly minor. 
 

Take the Disney+ factor away from this and it’s comfortably doing $150 million domestic if we’re in 2019. Alas, Disney have conditioned their core audience to keep their money in their wallets. Crazy, but I expect Daddy Iger to change this pretty quickly. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I know last film didn't get the expected numbers but SW is far from a failure.

Sorry but 515M is just unacceptable. Sent franchise’s movies into what looks like over half a decade slumber. Failure.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

Sorry but 515M is just unacceptable. Sent franchise’s movies into what looks like over half a decade slumber. Failure.

515M is still FIVE HUNDRED FIFTEEN MILLIONS. Near 50M admits.

 

Disney+ shows are doing just fine, Mando is biggest of them all. Not a failure.

[charlie Jatinder]

I wonder what our resident Dark Sorcerer feel about this. @Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I wonder what our resident Dark Sorcerer feel about this. @Porthos

 

You've called forth the Porthos! 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

You've called forth the Porthos! 

 

Yes. Porthos should know who called SW a failure.

[Legion Again]

Sony CBM shuffling inbound: 

 

[Nero]

6 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Sony CBM shuffling inbound: 

 

Morbin time 2 😲

[PNF2187]

Decided to compare Strange World's numbers with some other Thanksgiving animated flicks and see what the 3-day and 5-day might play out to be. Here's using Encanto (similar preview to opening day ratio) and Ralph 2 (similar Day 2 drop) as a comp as I think they're most applicable:

 

	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$4,576,850	$4,042,039	$2,624,320	$17,843,209	$11,243,209
Encanto	$7,553,221	$5,807,558	$11,075,133	$9,780,990	$6,350,371	$40,567,273	$27,206,494
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,122,389	$4,996,740	$3,149,248	$19,868,377	$13,268,377
Ralph Breaks the Internet	$18,340,440	$10,172,331	$21,711,098	$21,178,540	$13,347,996	$84,750,405	$56,237,634

 

Between the two, that averages out to $18.8M 5-day, $12.2M 3-day. Which given the exit scores and apparently early Disney+ release, would indicate a final total much closer to that of Treasure Planet ($38.2M) than Raya and the Last Dragon ($54.7M).

 

I also decided to comp the big family Thanksgiving openers going back to Tangled (including Frozen 2 because that basically played like one over Thanksgiving), and the picture isn't as bleak (unless The Croods 2 is involved) but a) the comps still don't look much better for a $135M+ budgeted movie, and b) older comps are less preview heavy and were more reliant on the 3-day weekend for grosses. I also included Treasure Planet because why not.

 

	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$3,512,973	$3,249,827	$1,979,233	$15,342,033	$8,742,033
The Croods: A New Age	$1,880,615	$2,669,640	$3,907,655	$3,614,945	$2,201,600	$14,274,455	$9,724,200
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,475,376	$5,191,918	$3,125,500	$20,392,794	$13,792,794
Frozen II	$24,080,546	$14,960,468	$34,130,914	$32,363,967	$19,482,892	$125,018,787	$85,977,773
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,109,548	$4,945,693	$3,615,539	$20,270,780	$13,670,780
Coco	$13,187,576	$8,918,749	$18,987,822	$18,378,913	$13,435,870	$72,908,930	$50,802,605
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,267,384	$5,155,687	$3,264,774	$20,287,845	$13,687,845
Moana	$15,519,234	$9,929,639	$21,793,008	$21,330,881	$13,507,512	$82,080,274	$56,631,401
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,698,945	$5,377,372	$3,293,025	$20,969,342	$14,369,342
The Good Dinosaur	$9,760,677	$6,539,793	$15,529,133	$14,652,875	$8,973,209	$55,455,687	$39,155,217
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$6,449,384	$5,976,995	$3,425,084	$22,451,463	$15,851,463
Penguins of Madagascar	$6,138,518	$3,852,885	$10,353,640	$9,595,281	$5,498,523	$35,438,847	$25,447,444
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,835,991	$5,510,480	$3,306,722	$21,253,192	$14,653,192
Frozen	$15,161,249	$11,037,812	$26,840,236	$25,343,182	$15,207,908	$93,590,387	$67,391,326
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,931,534	$5,891,944	$3,471,555	$21,895,033	$15,295,033
Rise of the Guardians	$4,837,243	$3,730,382	$9,219,537	$9,158,000	$5,395,928	$32,341,090	$23,773,465
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,045,437	$4,547,594	$2,575,630	$18,768,661	$12,168,661
The Muppets	$6,510,912	$5,766,753	$12,123,246	$10,927,021	$6,188,759	$41,516,691	$29,239,026
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,813,739	$5,517,607	$3,171,773	$21,103,119	$14,503,119
Tangled	$11,869,194	$8,070,052	$19,548,825	$18,553,073	$10,665,154	$68,706,298	$48,767,052
	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	5-day	3-day
Strange World	$4,200,000	$2,400,000	$5,526,622	$4,969,866	$2,875,034	$19,971,522	$13,371,522
Treasure Planet	$2,361,000	$2,168,773	$4,994,162	$4,491,046	$2,598,040	$16,613,021	$12,083,248

 

TLDR: It's not good.

 

[Grebacio]

6 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Sony CBM shuffling inbound: 

 

I predict Across Spider Verse moves to October 2023

Kraven to January 2024

Madame Web July 2024

[BadOlCatSylvester]

25 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Sony CBM shuffling inbound: 

 

I think this tweet might be referring to the delays that already happened a couple of months back. The shuffle where Kraven was pushed to next October and Madame Web went to 2024. Sony would only really have Spider-Verse 2 to show off there, and they already did last year.

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Flopped]

So I just saw Till and Danielle Deadwyler deserves the Oscar. Sorry Blanchett. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

Strange World is pretty good. The third act reveal is a doozy. Good, not great Disney…but with an essential message that’s depressingly taken a back seat to the woke queer talk that’s incredibly minor. 
 

Take the Disney+ factor away from this and it’s comfortably doing $150 million domestic if we’re in 2019. Alas, Disney have conditioned their core audience to keep their money in their wallets. Crazy, but I expect Daddy Iger to change this pretty quickly. 

Nah, this would've struggled in 2018-2019 too. Congrats to King Mickey for finding their Treasure Planet/The Black Cauldron for this era.

[Flopped]

Kinda sad the best movie of the year, RRR, didn't really have a box office run in the U.S. 

[SchumacherFTW]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Kinda sad the best movie of the year, RRR, didn't really have a box office run in the U.S. 

Indian movies flame out super quick in the US. Bom has it having a 9m OW and an 11m finish

[jedijake]

4 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

-17.5% BP, normal ballpark, smidge worse if actual stays there. Right around 40 3day, right around AoU DOM. Harsh compared to past mcu thanksgiving, wknd 3 vs 4 playing some role likely.  
 

Awful for SW. like 11M 3day perhaps, or single digits in dramatic case.

 

Normal drop for BP2 BUT that Wednesday increase was HORRIBLE!.

Far from being remotely a failure of course. But it is becoming much more forgotten a lot more quickly than many of us would have expected. At least it has a positive legacy that will live on unlike others. With the credit scene what it was, they have more than the opportunity to get a third one out at some point that could do better than the second. If any franchise has shown they can drop and then rise again, it's the MCU.

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Normal drop for BP2 BUT that Wednesday increase was HORRIBLE!.

Far from being remotely a failure of course. But it is becoming much more forgotten a lot more quickly than many of us would have expected. At least it has a positive legacy that will live on unlike others. With the credit scene what it was, they have more than the opportunity to get a third one out at some point that could do better than the second. If any franchise has shown they can drop and then rise again, it's the MCU.

I mean, still looks like mid 400s. 2.5x or so. It’s right on track to reasonable legs expectations imo. People who were wanting like 2.8 from a holiday infested ow will be disappointed I guess 🤷‍♂️

[LonePirate]

Are there any Glass Onion estimates for yesterday?

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Are there any Glass Onion estimates for yesterday?

 

3 bajillion Iraqi dinar