The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

A Haunting in Venice MTC1 previews Final - 27127/280265 487471.63 1473 shows

 

Thinking around ~1.6m including early shows. @across the Jat verse as expected ATP dropped a lot today with walkups.   

That still feels a lot high. Normally these films be around $16-17 I think but I guess could be heavier on coasts. 

[DAJK]

Yea, not a great showing for Venice around here tonight. Pre-sales seemed decent, yesterday's sales were great. And then walk-ups were just... not. 

 

Probably going to come in under Death on the Nile for Thursday which is... not great. Really unfortunate tbh. 

[keysersoze123]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T -29) - 507048/778694 10716811.72 4632 shows

 

 

Pace at this point is not that interesting. I am thinking real action will start around 10 days to release. But growht potential for friday is limited until it gets an expansion. I am expecting around 20% growth and show and around 650-700K finish at MTC1. 

 

Saturday  - 418059/1586046 9021548.51 9209 shows 

Sunday  - 274082/1552828 5983852.58 8968 shows // 2 days ago

 

I think @M37 has covered its potential over the weekend. 

 

MTC2 Friday - 169214/436009 3497501.96 3000 shows

 

MTC2 tends to grow a lot more during finish but here also it needs growth in shows.

 

Overall no impact of VMA or anything else.  

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T -29) - 507048/778694 10716811.72 4632 shows

 

 

Pace at this point is not that interesting. I am thinking real action will start around 10 days to release. But growht potential for friday is limited until it gets an expansion. I am expecting around 20% growth and show and around 650-700K finish at MTC1. 

 

Saturday  - 507048/778694 10716811.72 9193 shows // As of yesterday night

Sunday  - 274082/1552828 5983852.58 8968 shows // 2 days ago

 

I think @M37 has covered its potential over the weekend. 

 

MTC2 Friday - 169214/436009 3497501.96 3000 shows

 

MTC2 tends to grow a lot more during finish but here also it needs growth in shows.

 

Overall no impact of VMA or anything else.  

 

I think that $65M is overall sales and not weekend which Deadline mentioned. From this, seems like $55M ish weekend sales so far. I won't be surprised with the sub $100M weekend.

 

Edit: Seems like you have put FRI numbers in SAT, assuming SUN nos is actually SAT, would guess $22M ish MTC 1 sales and $45M overall weekend.

Edited September 15, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[Porthos]

On 9/13/2023 at 11:50 PM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	11224	18606	7382	39.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-30 Comps:

	%		Sold T-30	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
BP2	147.17		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	43.94%		41.21m	59.75m
AM3	263.55		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	70.47%		46.12m	66.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2181/6150  [35.46% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

26.19% of No Way Home's final total        [13.10m]

34.96% of Doctor Strange 2's final total  [12.58m]

43.52% of Thor 4's final total.                   [12.62m]

82.15% of Avatar 2's final total                  [13.97m]

159.75% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.77m]

61.12% of Barbie's final total                     [13.63m]

 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	11196	18606	7410	39.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

28

 

T-29 Comps:

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	109.79		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	35.09%		39.53m	57.31m
BP2	144.14		125	5141		1/294	31881/37022	13.89%		16800	44.11%		40.36m	58.52m
AM3	242.32		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	70.74%		42.41m	61.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2186/6150  [35.54% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

26.29% of No Way Home's final total        [13.15m]

35.09% of Doctor Strange 2's final total   [12.63m]

43.69% of Thor 4's final total.                   [12.67m]

82.46% of Avatar 2's final total                  [14.02m]

160.35% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.84m]

61.36% of Barbie's final total                     [13.68m]

 

===

 

Starting to get enough comps online (if still perhaps high due to reasons), that I'm very tempted to drop the "% of final total" entries.  Never really liked it all that much anyway, if only coz I never sat down to figure out ATP differences between the various films.  I'll think it over the next couple of days.

[noobmaster69]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T -29) - 507048/778694 10716811.72 4632 shows

 

 

Pace at this point is not that interesting. I am thinking real action will start around 10 days to release. But growht potential for friday is limited until it gets an expansion. I am expecting around 20% growth and show and around 650-700K finish at MTC1. 

 

Saturday  - 507048/778694 10716811.72 9193 shows // As of yesterday night

Sunday  - 274082/1552828 5983852.58 8968 shows // 2 days ago

 

I think @M37 has covered its potential over the weekend. 

 

MTC2 Friday - 169214/436009 3497501.96 3000 shows

 

MTC2 tends to grow a lot more during finish but here also it needs growth in shows.

 

Overall no impact of VMA or anything else.  

 

The numbers for Fri＆ Sat are same, maybe mistake?

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

Yea, not a great showing for Venice around here tonight. Pre-sales seemed decent, yesterday's sales were great. And then walk-ups were just... not. 

 

Probably going to come in under Death on the Nile for Thursday which is... not great. Really unfortunate tbh. 

 

I believe you're around Victoria, right? All the more puzzling that it's performed strong in Ontario.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-30 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  15,835

New Sales: 70

Growth from yesterday 0.4%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 170.3

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

I have similar findings as Porthos, with no visible effect of the awards show promotion. I'm not sure if the ad was shown was part of the ceremony, or if it was aired as an ad, so there's a chance it didn't get aired up here.

 

Since the nuke of early shows, new sales have trended down very steadily from 211 the first day, to 164 to 116 to 93 to now 70.

 

I know that Swift is her own promotional machine, but, I really think this is going to need a push to casual audiences at some point. There's still time, but, a good ad campaign builds awareness over an extended period.

 

I think Star Wars is a good comparison as a sales curve. But, Star Wars was always associated with aggressive marketing push. You can't escape the ads when a new movie is coming out. So when you get to the final week, you have high awareness. This will not have the same advantage.

 

My initial gut instinct was for a $50M Friday. I'm cooling down on that a bit, and feel like it's trending below. 

 

There's still lots of different options on the table though, and how the Taylor Swift camp markets this down the stretch will matter a lot.

 

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-29 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  15,897

New Sales: 62

Growth from yesterday 0.4%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 170.9

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Sixth day in a row with declining growth.

 

There's also no chatter about the potentially cancelled shows. I frequent the Cineplex and Taylor Swift subreddits to see if there's any mention.

 

No one seems to have really noticed, or if they do, don't seem to care that much right now. It's been almost a full week, and I don't think Cineplex has communicated anything out. Certainly not publicly, and I doubt they'd have e-mailed people and it not have triggered a spike in sales.

 

I honestly wasn't planning on tracking this daily, but I have because I want to see if a spike happens, as it would signal that some news has come out, but it's been quieter than I would have assumed.

 

 

[vafrow]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:23 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator and Exorcist: Believer, D1 (T-16, T-23 respectively), southern Ontario 

 

I thought with both going on advance sale at the same time this morning, I'd do a combined update. We're probably about 10 hours since they went up.l on MTC4, where I'm tracking.

 

Creator

 

Total sales: 28

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 0.28

 

Exorcist Believer

 

Total sales: 18

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.191

 

No comps, as it's more about comparing against each other, and I don't have much to really use.

 

Creator slightly outselling at this stage isn't too strange, as it's coming out a week earlier.

 

Exorcist: Believer, Thursday previews T-21, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 28

New sales: 10

Growth since Tuesday: 56%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.298

 

No comps worth pulling, as I don't have much horror and nothing this far out.

 

Regardless, it's a pretty uninspiring total, and doesn't point to much up front demand.

 

When I get closer, I'll have Nun 2 as a comparison, but that had a short sales cycle, so even that will be flawed. 

[Human]

Spider-Verse completely dominated the disk sales last week.  Great sign for the third one whenever it comes out.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

I think that $65M is overall sales and not weekend which Deadline mentioned. From this, seems like $55M ish weekend sales so far. I won't be surprised with the sub $100M weekend.

 

Edit: Seems like you have put FRI numbers in SAT, assuming SUN nos is actually SAT, would guess $22M ish MTC 1 sales and $45M overall weekend.

 

4 hours ago, noobmaster69 said:

The numbers for Fri＆ Sat are same, maybe mistake?

Good catch guys. Fixed it. Now saturday is as of yesterday night. Pace of saturday is twice that of friday but still quite low at this point. 

[M37]

PBO first LRF for ERAS at $96-$145M

 

Bottom end seems too low IMO - already at like $25M in sales for Friday, surely climbs to at least $30M+ even with weak pace, and a ~30/40/30 weekend gets to $100M 

Edited September 15, 2023 by M37

[Derpity]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

PBO first LRF for ERAS at $96-$145M

 

Bottom end seems too low IMO - already at like $25M in sales for Friday, surely climbs to at least $30M+ even with weak pace, and a ~30/40/30 weekend gets to $100M 

 

I think the bottom end expectation likely factors in extreme frontloading, so maybe something akin to 37 37 22 or whatever.

[Chrysaor]

Oof. Variety is reporting only $1.2 MM in previews for A Haunting in Venice. No mention of Wed early access showings being rolled into that figure, although I assume that's the case. For comparison, Death of the Nile did $1.1 MM.

 

A similar Preview/OW multiplier would have this opening to $13.96 MM.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Chrysaor

[Shawn Robbins]

Venice had $100k from non-Thursday shows, not sure if reported anywhere yet. Was included in the $1.2m figure.

[ChipDerby]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Venice had $100k from non-Thursday shows, not sure if reported anywhere yet. Was included in the $1.2m figure.

 

This is a national scandal 

[el sid]

41 minutes ago, Chrysaor said:

Oof. Variety is reporting only $1.2 MM in previews for A Haunting in Venice. No mention of Wed early access showings being rolled into that figure, although I assume that's the case. For comparison, Death of the Nile did $1.1 MM.

 

A similar Preview/OW multiplier would have this opening to $13.96 MM.

Death on the Nile had the Super Bowl competition so A Haunting in Venice hopefully reaches at least 15M OW. But overall +/-15M sounds right.

 

Death on the Nile had in 3-4 of "my" 7 theaters pretty big early access Wed shows and only 100k are reported for AHIV. Maybe Death on the Nile made more than 100k on Wednesday back then?

Edited September 15, 2023 by el sid

[vafrow]

I only decided to track Haunting in Venice because it looked strong, and I figured it would help build out my comps, but I'm pretty sure I can't use it for anything else based on how it over performed here.

[abracadabra1998]

42 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Venice had $100k from non-Thursday shows, not sure if reported anywhere yet. Was included in the $1.2m figure.

Let’s goooooo, my T-1 predictions actually paid off for once!!

[Chrysaor]

54 minutes ago, el sid said:

Death on the Nile had the Super Bowl competition so A Haunting in Venice hopefully reaches at least 15M OW. But overall +/-15M sounds right.

 

Death on the Nile had in 3-4 of "my" 7 theaters pretty big early access Wed shows and only 100k are reported for AHIV. Maybe Death on the Nile made more than 100k on Wednesday back then?

Yeah, I hope so. I mean DotN had an 11.6 PRE/OW multiplier, but since then other adult skewing fare have had noticeably better ones. For example, Ticket to Ride had 15x's previews. Of course, without Clooney and Roberts level starpower I'm not expecting this one to do that well, but without Super Bowl and omicron hopefully it can leg out a little more this weekend than DotN did. Of course, that all depends on if the older demo was scared away by the marketing. And the same can be said for it's overall legs, will the higher RT score/certified fresh distinction (and presumably at least slightly higher Comscore) result in better legs, or will that be offset by its being more of a horror movie?

Edited September 15, 2023 by Chrysaor