The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, AN9815 said:

Too high, this movie will make $5m OW / $15m DOM and Secret Wars will be lucky to make $150m WW

@SpiderByte @AN9815My comment was a serious comment about future of Captain Marvel in the MCU, so let's discuss this at The Marvels thread.

[Outlander]

5 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yep, I'm a huge Taylor Swift fan as well and her stuff is very frontloaded. That's just common knowledge if you look into it. 

Well yeah that's how artist with huge dedicated fanbases work.

But I wouldn't say shes frontloaded. You dont become the top solo artist in billboard chart history by being frontloaded you need insane longevity to achieve that. 

 

Anyway I hope TET crosses $100m OW *fingers crossed*

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Outlander

[Madhuvan]

19 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Well yeah that's how artist with huge dedicated fanbases work.

But I wouldn't say shes frontloaded. You dont become the top solo artist in billboard chart history by being frontloaded you need insane longevity to achieve that. 

 

Anyway I hope TET crosses $100m OW *fingers crossed*

 

 

Frontloaded here means first week sales 

 

Offcourse she isn't Frontloaded in that manner but Swifties will always buy everything they can at that instance , we don't wait till last minute

[Taylor89]

22 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Well yeah that's how artist with huge dedicated fanbases work.

But I wouldn't say shes frontloaded. You dont become the top solo artist in billboard chart history by being frontloaded you need insane longevity to achieve that. 

 

Anyway I hope TET crosses $100m OW *fingers crossed*

 

 

 

Premiere will help it too.

[Zakiyyah6]

44 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Frontloaded here means first week sales 

 

Offcourse she isn't Frontloaded in that manner but Swifties will always buy everything they can at that instance , we don't wait till last minute

Exactly. 

[Geopo]

59 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Frontloaded here means first week sales 

 

Offcourse she isn't Frontloaded in that manner but Swifties will always buy everything they can at that instance , we don't wait till last minute

What do you mean by that? Taylor albums are not frontloaded at all, a lot of the sales happen after release and not during preorders. 

I don't think that's very relevant to how a concert film would perform anyway.

[JonathanMB]

Has anyone done any tracking for After Death, an Angel Studios release on October 27? I don't actively track like anyone in here, but I took a look at its ticket sales at a local Cinemark (usually not a big pre-sales theater) and was surprised to see it has sold 50 tickets for its opening Friday. Probably not another Sound of Freedom, but seems like it could be another The Blind-style over-performer at least.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, JonathanMB said:

Has anyone done any tracking for After Death, an Angel Studios release on October 27? I don't actively track like anyone in here, but I took a look at its ticket sales at a local Cinemark (usually not a big pre-sales theater) and was surprised to see it has sold 50 tickets for its opening Friday. Probably not another Sound of Freedom, but seems like it could be another The Blind-style over-performer at least.

 

Not tracking, but aware that while this movie did not do free tickets, it did have an opening BOGO deal to help boost presales to help it get booked in more theaters.

[vale9001]

No one buys albums anymore. Albums sales are frontloaded for everyone cause now the market it's just special limited editions and the physical market is basically a "collectors" kinda of thing. So you buy everything soon or at the moment.

 

Anyways as someone said music market is a thing, movie market another. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by vale9001

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26760	27313	553	2.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

553

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	63.27		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	8.63%		6.80m
GOTG3	29.23		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	5.14%		5.11m
TLM	121.81		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	8.43%		12.55m
AtSV	54.27		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	5.68%		9.42m
Flash	86.41		640	640		0/158	21727/22367	2.86%		5327	10.38%		8.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        47/8661  [0.54% sold]
Matinee:    19/2547  [0.75% | 3.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            30/4901  [0.61% | 5.42% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not much to say which hasn't already been said.  All around a (very) soft start.

 

Do have some notes though.  As I suspected, The Little Mermaid is a pretty unsuitable comp, but I added it by @TwoMisfits request.  Quite likely will disappear in short order.

 

Do actually have something to say about the Eternals comp.  That actually started out relatively strongly (for the era) before it all but nose dived when reviews started to roll in.  So something to keep in mind as it's plausible for The Marvels to climb against it.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is pre-sale length:

 

Eternals:        25 days of pre-sales

GOTG3:         32 days of pre-sales

TLM:              30 days of pre-sales

AtSV:              25 days of pre-sales

The Flash:      24 days of pre-sales

The Marvels:  31 days of pre-sales

 

Some are closer than others, but with relatively so few sales, that gets magnified. 

 

Still, is what it is.  Anything else is (more) commentary.

I thought Drafthouse was the worst so far but Sacramento takes the cake. Under 2/3rd of Eternals is simply not good enough for any sequel. That said Eternals had probaby among the most frontloaded presales for a MCU flick considering the earlier bad reviews just killed any momentum. 

 

Question is what Disney will do. Will they risk early reviews here. How about fan screening like Guardians. They have to do something considering pace after opening day will be really low and so they need serious catalysts to boost the sales. Otherwise its going to trail Eternals to final week !!!

 

One thing Marvels has in its favor is its screen allocation. That is at Guardians level than Eternals. 

[Flip]

Not sure if anyone noted this yet, but KOTFM has the t-mobile $5 deal, so even without a review boost it could see a bump around release week

[Tinalera]

14 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Good to have another one of us up here. The app changes makes some it a little tricky, at least for me, so I'm sticking to just high level updates, but, good to have someone else up here with @Tinalera and @DAJK. If there's anything i can help with, just holler.

I had hoped at least for App users it would stay up for the seat counts, even if website was not doing it. Im slowly building up some excel stuff where I keep the the max seats available, along with it being AVX-IMAX ect. But its slow and even then Im pretty sure Im not getting absolutely exact numbers, more close approximate (yes I am counting those individual seats per theatre, not its not fun-but then Im weird that way lol). Its why my counts havent been as much recently (though in case of Swift now its pretty much down to "when is it a sellout")

 

And welcome @Jsmitty-always good to have another Canadian view

[SpiderByte]

There's no real thread for this but: what exactly is the difference between Real3D and regular 3D? Is it just a brand name or is there some specific method or whatever?

[DisposedData]

4 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Frontloaded here means first week sales 

 

Offcourse she isn't Frontloaded in that manner but Swifties will always buy everything they can at that instance , we don't wait till last minute

But that's not true though. Her albums literally chart for weeks much more so than everyone else.

[Ezen Baklattan]

22 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There's no real thread for this but: what exactly is the difference between Real3D and regular 3D? Is it just a brand name or is there some specific method or whatever?

Most 3D in cinemas nowadays IS RealD 3D. Everything in 3D is pretty much digital and I think RealD has a monopoly on that format. 

[Jsmitty]

15 hours ago, Jsmitty said:

TSTET update for the 3 theatres in my area.

 

14 planned showtimes for Friday. 1692 total seats including 1 Imax showtime.

 

1178 sold for a 69.6% rate right now. May be another couple shows posted this evening as Tuesday evening is usually update time.

`No additional showtimes added for TSTET post update. seat count for the area stands at 1692. Still no sign of a FNAF presale. Beyoncé has only listed 1 Thursday presale showtime (7PM) among the 3 theatres in my area so far. It is currently approximately 45% sold.

 

[SpiderByte]

9 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Most 3D in cinemas nowadays IS RealD 3D. Everything in 3D is pretty much digital and I think RealD has a monopoly on that format. 

So it's just the brand name for 3D basically, but not something like RPX vs IMAX or the like

[Jsmitty]

16 hours ago, Jsmitty said:

Following up on this, Theatre 3 just updated Marvels pre sales after being unavailable all day. Adding 5 posted showtimes and an additional 681 seats in my area for Thursday previews.

 

A total of 14 showtimes and 2467 seats between the 3 theatres posted.

 

In the 4 hours since my original post 11 additional tickets have been sold for a total of 36 in the first 8 hours.

 

36/2467 = 1.46%

 

Working on a TSTET update for the area as well.

 

 

 

Thursday Presale Marvels update:

in the 16 hours since this post (and now a full 24 hours since presale began here) an additional 21 tickets have been sold.

 

24 hour total in my area: 57/2467 = 2.31% sold

[Grand Cine]

I see some show for Wish who appears , he had for most places normal show or in 3D but in some places he have also dolby screen for the morning and the afternoon , i think he split in some places with Napoleon who will have a lot of premium screen

 

It's the same for The Trolls 3 but the few places i saw, he has less show than Wish

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-29/27 hours of sales):

 

450 tickets sold (10 locations)

 

Comp:

0.755x Oppenheimer (D-29) = $7.9275m

 

Now Oppenheimer had been on sale for about 15 days at this point so not exactly a fair comp but on the other hand it was only imax screenings for the early portion of that period and MCU is more fan driven than even a Nolan film