The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Priscilla T-1: 33.79% Awareness

Next Goal Wins T-15: 16.22%

Trolls Band Together T-15: 48.72%

Wish T-20: 44.97%

Silent Night T-29: 25.23%

Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce T-29: 25.61%

Ferrari T-53: 23.72%

The Fall Guy T-120: 30%

Dune Part Two T-134: 34.63%

 

Journey to Bethlehem T-8: 20% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

[Eric Prime]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

This astounds me, who the hell is buying tickets for this so early.

 

There's kind of a good reason. You can gift a ticket to friends and family a la Sound of Freedom on Fandango. Guess people are trying to use that incentive right away.

 

 

[vafrow]

On 11/2/2023 at 6:15 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 784

New sales: 25

Growth: 3.3%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No comps yet. Will bring in Fnaf after a couple of days.

 

Single theatre comp:

0.280x of ATSV for $4.9M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: (2.9)

Early evening: 80.2 (80.8)

Late Evening: 16.8 (16.3)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 1.9

Early Evening: 27.3

Late Evening: 6.3

Avg: 14.0

 

Still nothing, and we're now into November. It has the added showtimes as well, so if timing or format didn't work for someone before, there's lots of options available.

 

 

The Marvels, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 840

New sales: 56

Growth: 7.1%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

1.52x of FNAF (d3)for $15.6M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.266x of ATSV for $4.6M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 3.1 (2.9)

Early evening: 79.5 (80.2)

Late Evening: 17.4 (16.8)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.2

Early Evening: 29.0

Late Evening: 7.0

Avg: 15.0

 

Growth was a bit better today. Not tremendous, but, this is what you want to start seeing.

 

I threw FNAF as a comparitor there, as my only real direct comparison. But, they're different films obviously, and had very different sales windows. Based on how Fnaf was growing, Marvels likely falls below by T-5.

[YM!]

It’s prolly going to be an animation or Wonka to save the holiday and do 200m+ domestic.

 

Trolls’ presales aren’t that bad, most have it around 1.5-1.7M without EA. If EA does 750k-1M and WOM is good, I think previews of 2.25M-2.7M would be acceptable. Not sure what kind of OW that leads - maybe like 45-55m? 

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 hours ago, Eric Presley said:

There's kind of a good reason. You can gift a ticket to friends and family a la Sound of Freedom on Fandango. Guess people are trying to use that incentive right away.

 

 

 

20 dollars a ticket, darn 

[filmlover]

34 minutes ago, YM! said:

It’s prolly going to be an animation or Wonka to save the holiday and do 200m+ domestic.

 

Trolls’ presales aren’t that bad, most have it around 1.5-1.7M without EA. If EA does 750k-1M and WOM is good, I think previews of 2.25M-2.7M would be acceptable. Not sure what kind of OW that leads - maybe like 45-55m? 

I'm not expecting Wonka to make much more than Mary Poppins Returns did at most at this point tbh. It's going to be a relatively muted Christmas at the movies in all likelihood.

[filmlover]

Also some theaters are starting to load up Taylor Swift shows for next weekend so clearly it's staying around for a little longer.

[Taylor89]

58 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also some theaters are starting to load up Taylor Swift shows for next weekend so clearly it's staying around for a little longer.

 

 

More than 4 weeks?

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, Eric Presley said:

There's kind of a good reason. You can gift a ticket to friends and family a la Sound of Freedom on Fandango. Guess people are trying to use that incentive right away.

 

 

Interesting! Could be a very successful strategy given its Christmas release status. $20 is pretty high like another user mentioned, I wonder if how meaningfully it will raise its ATP

[Taylor89]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10153	10801	648	6.00

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

33

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.63717x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.14m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update Next Thursday night.

 

Is this for thursday?

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-8) - 54265/705238 1077957.83 3610 +1997

Friday - 35163/1050868 670999.31 5341 shows +2014

 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 56548/706236 1119931.38 3615 shows +2303

Friday - 37267/1051630 708533.13 5347 shows +2104

 

Slight acceleration. But nothing noteworthy. 

Some comps

Flash ~ 71450

Eternals ~ 78400

Guardians 3 ~ 132100

 

I am thinking 140K and around 2.55m finish. That would be ~7m previews since its over indexing big time here. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by keysersoze123

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

22 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

Is this for thursday?

Yes 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Also some theaters are starting to load up Taylor Swift shows for next weekend so clearly it's staying around for a little longer.

 

Don't need the excess theaters for The Marvels or any of the previous releases, except maybe one saved for FNAF...nothing else is making any real money, or at least any more money than Taylor...

[Boxofficerules]

Maybe they should rerelease Morbius, that might bring some money in.

[vafrow]

@filmloverFor the Swift extension, are those showtimes showing up as Thursday to Sunday releases, or is it switching to Friday to Sunday.

 

As mentioned yesterday, there's no signs of Swift shows in Cineplex, despite all theatres having schedules locked in for the Thursday. I checked some Landmark locations as well.

 

As for the muted holiday season, I find it's always more likely that something breaks out huge whenever there's a bunch of films people are predicting all fall within a small moderate range. Maybe it isn't Wonka, but, I feel we'll see something, and it will probably be reflected in early tracking when it does. 

 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, vafrow said:

@filmloverFor the Swift extension, are those showtimes showing up as Thursday to Sunday releases, or is it switching to Friday to Sunday.

 

Thursday through Sunday still, as far as I can tell.

 

There hasn't been an official announcement though so maybe it's an error in the system (or not and a surprise announcement is coming).

Edited November 3, 2023 by filmlover

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews - 56548/706236 1119931.38 3615 shows +2303

Friday - 37267/1051630 708533.13 5347 shows +2104

 

Slight acceleration. But nothing noteworthy. 

Some comps

Flash ~ 71450

Eternals ~ 78400

Guardians 3 ~ 132100

 

I am thinking 140K and around 2.55m finish. That would be ~7m previews since its over indexing big time here. 

And for Friday :

 

Flash : - 42288/810835 794916.86 4106 shows

Guardians 3 : - 83445/1275358 1480783.95 6919 shows

Eternals : - 63624/732050 1096156.98 3636 shows +3925

Shang Chi : - 42038/716899 685848.52 3474 shows

 

Comp :

Flash : 13,2M

Guardians 3 : 14,7M

Eternals : 13,8M

Shang Chi : 21,3M

 

The pace for Friday is about just above a half of Eternals and around 2/3 of Shang Chi so The two last comps will fall down especially the latter . I think at this point with estimate of previews of around 7m we will have a OD of around 21m with the veteran day i think we could have a quite good jump Fri/Sat so maybe 50-55m for OW

 

@keysersoze123could you see a overindexe for friday like previews or not?

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-6):

 

895 tickets at 10 Houston AMC's/+43 YD

 

Comps:

 

1.61x Indiana Jones 5 = $11.6m

 

0.619x MI7 ( EA + Wlmt INC) = $4.33m

 

Pace is running around 1/2 of Flash and Black Adam pace around this time

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

The Marvel thread is alive!

 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:20 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-7 

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 515

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.5%

New sales - 5 (+1%)

 

Comp 

 

0.11x Eras Fri T-7 = $4.01m / $2.2m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-8

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 381

 

Comp = .74x Thu

---

 

Would guess this chain is behaving more like MTC2 than MTC1. 

 

 

The Marvels T-6

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 540

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.9%

New sales - 25 (+4.9%)

 

Comp 

 

0.12x Eras Fri T-6 = $4.08m / $2.24m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-7

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 389

New sales - 9 (+2.4%)

 

.72x Thu

---

 

Eras comp hasn't moved since T-23, but I expect that to change over the next week. Eras only grew 1.28x from here including preview sales. Surprised it's paced so closely this far though.