The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Unless its release expands significantly I cant see it go that high. Not even convinced by double digits OW so far. 

 

In my market, just for Thursday, at T-3:

Godzilla Minus One: 168/280 (60%) tickets were MTC1, vs.

The Boy and the Heron: 167/501 (33.3%).

 

It's a meaningful difference, worth considering when thinking about indexing and what not. For the record, I am not convinced of double digit OW either, the Alamo overindex is real (115/501 for Heron vs. 4/280 for Godzilla, for example) which is not indicative of walk-ups, and this is just one market, but it's worth thinking about.

[PrinceRico]

3 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	57	87	482	6027	8

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		213	30	44.19
Marcus:		92	21	19.09
Alamo:		40	18	8.3
Other chains:		137	18	28.42

 

Comps:

4.01x Wonka: ???

1.85x Killers of the Flower Moon: $4.82 Million

0.96x FNAF: $9.85 Million

0.5x Oppy: $5.3 Million

1.2x MI7: $8.42 Million

 

Average: $7.1 Million

 

Kinda throwing a lot at it right now (plus Barbie next update, on Thursday) and seeing how it converges. Needless to say, keeps rocking it.

 

Hype Just keeps on growing and growing.

Edited December 5, 2023 by PrinceRico

[MovieMan89]

25 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

In my market, just for Thursday, at T-3:

Godzilla Minus One: 168/280 (60%) tickets were MTC1, vs.

The Boy and the Heron: 167/501 (33.3%).

 

It's a meaningful difference, worth considering when thinking about indexing and what not. For the record, I am not convinced of double digit OW either, the Alamo overindex is real (115/501 for Heron vs. 4/280 for Godzilla, for example) which is not indicative of walk-ups, and this is just one market, but it's worth thinking about.

I think the 3.5m or whatever Howls pulled from just select showings a few months ago needs to be factored in more. Less than Suzume OW would be highly disappointing given Miyazaki clout. Aim for at least that I think. 

[Arlborn]

I'm really curious about how Wonka will do in the next couple of days with the reviews out.

[emoviefan]

51 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I'm really curious about how Wonka will do in the next couple of days with the reviews out.

Wonka is going to live or die by it's  WOM  over the holidays. The reviews are better than expected but not sure good enough to lead to much more than 30-35 next weekend.

[Mojoguy]

Wonka is pretty much biding its time until Christmas week. Don't be alarmed at a low OW cause it can break out huge during Christmas break.

[filmlover]

Wonka could open to $20-25M and still leg it out to $100M+ total due to the holidays + a dead first two months of 2024.

 

Unless people just continue to swear off movie theaters this holiday season. Knowing our luck these days, I wouldn't rule out any scenario for anything at this point.

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Wonka is pretty much biding its time until Christmas week. Don't be alarmed at a low OW cause it can break out huge during Christmas break.

This exactly and yet if only does say 25 million next weekend this place will still have all the normal this movie is doomed bullshit just because.

[HummingLemon496]

Theaters are gonna have a really crappy Christmas huh

Edited December 5, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[VanillaSkies]

I think Boy and the Heron hits double digits for one reason. It’s been playing to sold out shows on limited release for about 2 weeks. Started Thanksgiving week. They are rolling all of those showtimes into opening weekend.
 

That plus it’s IMAX showings tonight (which looks to have done quite well in many areas) plus EA showings on Wednesday night. I just don’t see how it misses double digits with all that extra juice. 
 

If they weren’t combining it all into the OW, then I’d probably agree.

[Flip]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	1770	29935	5.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

122

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

Comps with Thursday previews 

(2.955x) of Wish $5.32M 

(1.710x) of Haunted Mansion $5.30M 

(0.885x) of TLM $9.11M 

Comps AVG: $6.58M

 

Crazy pace lol

Crazy thing is that these comps would almost certainly be higher if it was compared to non Disney movies 

[Super]

I have an odd request and I’m not sure if anyone can facilítate it. I know a lot of time and effort goes into this and people get busy around this time so quite understandable if the answer is no.

 

How are Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom and Migration’s presales shaping up past the traditional weekend? Looking at TCP’s numbers has me intrigued to see how their Christmas and Boxing Day are looking in comparison. Given that this weekend in particular is expected to be depressed because of where the holiday falls, is there a possibility their presales are more backloaded than expected? 

[vafrow]

On 12/4/2023 at 6:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Wonka, T-11, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 26

New Sales since last update: 0

Growth: 0%

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Comps

0.197x of HG:BoSS for $1.1M

 

First zero sales day in a little bit.

 

Wonka, T-10, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 36

New Sales since last update: 10

Growth: 36%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 2/4

Early Evening: 27/8

Late Evening: 7/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 14/6

VIP: 10/4

IMAX: 12/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.243x of HG:BoSS for $1.4M

 

Two interesting developments. One, it was a good sales day, likely driven by the review embargo dropping. Sales all came from small groups of 2-3 tickets and spread pretty evenly throughout.

 

The other development is the dropping of a late show. That's the theatre closest to me dropping the late show, which means they're not going to keep the theatre open late on weeknights, which indicates just how pessimistic they are.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Super said:

I have an odd request and I’m not sure if anyone can facilítate it. I know a lot of time and effort goes into this and people get busy around this time so quite understandable if the answer is no.

 

How are Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom and Migration’s presales shaping up past the traditional weekend? Looking at TCP’s numbers has me intrigued to see how their Christmas and Boxing Day are looking in comparison. Given that this weekend in particular is expected to be depressed because of where the holiday falls, is there a possibility their presales are more backloaded than expected? 

Had a bit of time, so looked at the busiest location (AMC Veterans 24) in Tampa for XMAS Day

 

Title = Tickets Sold (Shows)

• Color Purple = 205 (7)
• Wonka = 75 (4) !!!
• Aquaman = 6 (9)
• Migration = 11 (7)
• Ferrari = 7 (4)
• Boys in Boat = 0 (4)
• Iron Claw = 2 (4)
• Poor Things = 1 (4)

Spot-checking the rest of the market, TCP is actually undervalued in this sample, as they gave it the Dolby but this audience doesn't seem to care (only 69 tickets sold), and the other screen is small and nearly sold out. Those TCP sales are are ridiculous across the market for 3 weeks from release; the limiting factor is not enough screens & seats, as more are needed.

On the other end, Wonka is a relative high outlier at this location, but still by far the second strongest title for pre-sales across the market, which frankly I did not expect given the earlier release date. Migration and Aquaman are roughly even, fluctuating depending on location (and natural variability in smaller numbers)

 

Christmas Day Box Office Early Projection

1. TCP (by a LOT)

2. Wonka (by a good margin)

3. Aquaman (helped by PLF/ATP)

4. Migration (might be 3rd)

5. who knows?

 

To answer the initial question, while both Aquaman and Migration should be backloaded from XMas day onward, there isn't much in the way of sales just yet, but we're still far from release, so we'll see

 

@keysersoze123 or @rehpyc, something maybe y'all want to take a look at on a larger scale when you have a chance?

[JonathanMB]

I don't have any official counts or comparison, but I will say I was looking at presales for Boy and the Heron in my area (the Chicago suburbs) and was initially disappointed by how light the Thursday previews seemed, but looking ahead at Friday and Saturday it seems like there are actually a lot more tickets sold so far for those dates than the previews? I know anime releases are typically frontloaded to previews, but it seems like since this isn't part of an ongoing series people might be more willing to wait until the weekend to catch it? Or maybe my area is an outlier.

 

Either way, that's really annoying that GKids apparently wants to roll the NY/LA release into its "opening" weekend. Just take the win of a couple massive PTAs, come on.

[el sid]

Wonka, counted yesterday for Thursday, December 14. 10 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 77 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 75 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 180 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 197 (9 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 547.

Up ok 60% since my last counting 9 days ago.
Comps (always counted for Thursday): Haunted Mansion (3.1M) had with 12 days left 194 sold tickets = ca. 8.7M for Wonka (but Wonka is a well-known name/brand).
Uncharted (3.7M) had with 15 days left 454 sold tickets.
 

The Little Mermaid (10.3M) had on Monday of the release week (= 7 days left for Wonka to come closer) 1.505 sold tickets,
Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M) had on the same day 724 sold tickets
and Dolittle (925k) had also on Monday of the release week 156 sold tickets.
My guess is that Wonka will have at least 700 sold tickets next Monday. With that number Wonka would get 4.2M (compared to Dolittle), 4M (Dungeons & Dragons) and 4.85M (compared to TLM) from previews.
Not bad at all.

[Columbo]

As far as I'm concerned, the goal for The Boy and The Heron should be a $20 million final gross. The Secret World of Arrietty holds the record for the highest-grossing original anime film in the US, and I feel that with how much Ghibli, and especially Miyazaki's, name has grown in the US, anything less than that would be a bit of a disappointment IMO. I also wonder how many markets don't have PLF up yet; my market doesn't have IMAX up yet despite how much the marketing for the film has hammered in PLFs like IMAX and Dolby Cinema.

 

EDIT: I created my acc awhile back but never used it until right now, I don't know why my location is set to LA, that's not where I'm at lol!

Edited December 5, 2023 by Columbo
correction.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Christmas Day Box Office Early Projection

1. TCP (by a LOT)

2. Wonka (by a good margin)

3. Aquaman (helped by PLF/ATP)

4. Migration (might be 3rd)

5. who knows?

I can see Aquaman topping if Wonka don't go crazy and TCP is low double digits.

Edited December 5, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[TwoMisfits]

FYI on this weekend sets...unlike the last few weeks, my Cinemarks are not setting early.  That could be b/c they had Animal and Godzilla last weekend, and are now deciding what to do, since one or both is planning to open Boy with the Heron, a 2nd foreign hit, and a return of Die Hard on a full screen with Waitress on a half screen...so while it seems like nothing is opening this weekend, things are opening and screens are getting tight again...even before the Christmas onslaught...

[ThomasNicole]