The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 Early Shows MTC1 - 14972/55434 311345.00 181 shows

This is bad. Should be selling much better in just IMAX shows.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

BOP's Long Range Forecast posted last night:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/25/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/1/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3	$7,000,000 – $11,000,000		$11,000,000 – $18,000,000	Fathom Events
2/2/2024	Argylle	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000		$65,000,000 – $95,000,000	Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films
2/2/2024	Scrambled	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000		$4,500,000 – $14,000,000	Lionsgate

...

2/9/2024

Lisa Frankenstein

$9,000,000 – $14,000,000

$23,000,000 – $46,000,000

Focus Features

...

2/14/2024	Bob Marley: One Love	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$41,000,000 – $77,000,000	Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024	Madame Web	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000		$56,000,000 – $101,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	$6,000,000 – $10,000,000		$9,000,000 – $16,000,000	Fathom Events

 

Shawn's article and complete chart at

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-to-the-hashira-training-and-ordinary-angels/

 

Edited January 26 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

That sounds more like Apple and Universal know they're sitting on a dud and are trying to slow down the inevitably bad word of mouth as much as they can. I don't buy that "spoiler" excuse in the slightest. This isn't a Marvel movie.

Yeah not sure. Most likely but everything about the marketing has been strange about this. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Dune sales rollout is odd. Times are up but still not available in at least several markets just from a quick eyeball look this morning.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Dune sales rollout is odd. Times are up but still not available in at least several markets just from a quick eyeball look this morning.

Believe it goes live at 12/11 EST/CST

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

BOP's Long Range Forecast posted last night:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/25/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
2/1/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3	$7,000,000 – $11,000,000		$11,000,000 – $18,000,000	Fathom Events
2/2/2024	Argylle	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000		$65,000,000 – $95,000,000	Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films
2/2/2024	Scrambled	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000		$4,500,000 – $14,000,000	Lionsgate

...

2/9/2024

Lisa Frankenstein

$9,000,000 – $14,000,000

$23,000,000 – $46,000,000

Focus Features

...

2/14/2024	Bob Marley: One Love	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$41,000,000 – $77,000,000	Paramount Pictures
2/14/2024	Madame Web	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000		$56,000,000 – $101,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
2/15/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	$6,000,000 – $10,000,000		$9,000,000 – $16,000,000	Fathom Events

 

Shawn's article and complete chart at

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-to-the-hashira-training-and-ordinary-angels/

 

Kind of surprised with the Argyle numbers considering the presales not being all that great and the marketing not being all that. Still hoping it surprises both critically and financially but not holding my breath.

[Old Spice]

Dune tix are live.

[Tomswelling]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Kind of surprised with the Argyle numbers considering the presales not being all that great and the marketing not being all that. Still hoping it surprises both critically and financially but not holding my breath.

I can see it making 15 million on opening weekend and over 75 domestic and another 100 million worldwide for 175 or even 200 million worldwide if people like it. It’s Vaughn so I imagine polarizing reviews. 52 on rotten tomatoes. 🍅 Vaughn has really become a crappy director in the past five years. Guy sucks now. 

 

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This is bad. Should be selling much better in just IMAX shows.

Big markets are doing great. Smaller markets dont start that fast. It takes time. No different from even something like Maverick. I think the numbers are great considering there has been no marketing push as well. Now they are pushing the tickets in their social media account as well. I will update OD PS EOD. Already looking at lincoln Sq, prime time Imax show has sold majority of tickets for both Thu and Fri. 

[Tinalera]

Will probably start tracking Dune after weekend.

[whatsupdoc]

The Quorum

6 Weeks Out Film Tracking Report

 

Opening weekend projects. All numbers are for the FSS period even for films opening on Wednesday or extending to Monday.

 

ARGYLLE: $15M - $18M (flat from last week)

LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $6M - $8M (up)

BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $20M - $23M (up)

MADAME WEB: $20M - $25MM (up)

DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $4M - $6M (flat)

ORDINARY ANGELS: $6M - $9M (down)

DUNE: PART TWO: $46M - $53M (up)

KUNG FU PANDA 4: $46M - $53M (NEW)

IMAGINARY: $18M - $22M (NEW)

 

FULL REPORT HERE: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/6WOFTR-01.26.24.pdf

 

 

[joselowe]

I'm glad One Love predictions are up!

[JonathanMB]

Seeing a lot of reports on Twitter of the AMC app going on the fritz when people were trying to get their tickets today; wonder if that'll slow sales down a bit.

[keysersoze123]

Lincoln sq is not working at all. Some reason its acting up a bit. it was showing up initially when I checked at 9AM where tons of Imax tickets were sold. Now its just greyed out. Both through Fandango and through the app. It will take some time for everything to go to normal. I think start is solid as expected. If they can build the hype as I expect, I am hoping for 10m previews. 

 

Based on my data check Lincoln Sq sold 379/480 for its prime time imax. Other 2 shows have more than 100 tickets sold but otherwise nothing. With the theater being flaky, sales would be impacted. 

Edited January 26 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

Initial run of Dune Part 2 Denver without EA showings is 402 sold.

 

Dune Part 1 was at 434 sold after about 8 hours. Seems good especially with some initial demand burnt off with the EA showings. Full post, along with Emagine and Drafthouse, later tonight.

[keysersoze123]

There is huge demand for Imax 70mm. Did DV even shoot it on Imax Film like Nolan. I guess Oppenheimer has sparked this demand to see this in highest resolution possible. 

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is huge demand for Imax 70mm. Did DV even shoot it on Imax Film like Nolan. I guess Oppenheimer has sparked this demand to see this in highest resolution possible. 

No. Digital cameras. I believe the movie got transferred to IMAX film though and cinemas capable of projecting it will show it in IMAX film.

[SchumacherFTW]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

No. Digital cameras. I believe the movie got transferred to IMAX film though and cinemas capable of projecting it will show it in IMAX film.

This is pretty much how it used to work before IMAX digital was widespread

[Maggie]

35 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Initial run of Dune Part 2 Denver without EA showings is 402 sold.

 

Dune Part 1 was at 434 sold after about 8 hours. Seems good especially with some initial demand burnt off with the EA showings. Full post, along with Emagine and Drafthouse, later tonight.

That doesn't seem too good, does it? DUNE 1 OW was 41M. We have hopes for somthing close to 100M for Dune 2

[iEnri]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

That doesn't seem too good, does it? DUNE 1 OW was 41M. We have hopes for somthing close to 100M for Dune 2

100M is too high but regardless this is just one block chain

Edited January 26 by iEnri