The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Seriously, I just really hope Argylle does well enough for Apple to justify putting more of their films in theaters. Movies like this flopping will just make streamers forego theatrical releases, which is bad for all of us.

They already have the Johansson/Tatum romcom directed by Greg Berlanti and the Clooney/Pitt thriller from Jon Watts set for theatrical release, both through Sony, later this year.

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

They already have the Johansson/Tatum romcom directed by Greg Berlanti and the Clooney/Pitt thriller from Jon Watts set for theatrical release, both through Sony, later this year.

I know, but the hits need to keep coming (not that there has been a bona fide hit yet) to justify these releases. Napoleon doing over 200M WW despite pretty bad WOM is a good start. Argylle matching it’s numbers would be nice to see.

[emoviefan]

28 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I know, but the hits need to keep coming (not that there has been a bona fide hit yet) to justify these releases. Napoleon doing over 200M WW despite pretty bad WOM is a good start. Argylle matching it’s numbers would be nice to see.

They just need a Mainstream well reviewed crowdpleaser to come out. KOTFM was to dark and depressing to hit big, Napeleon was not received well by critics or audiences and Argyle the jury is out but not looking great right now for anything more than a mixed reaction. 

Edited January 31 by emoviefan

[titanic2187]

 

strange choice for valentine day like pearl and lighthouse. 

 

[filmlover]

 

[Manny G]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

They just need a Mainstream well reviewed crowdpleaser to come out. KOTFM was to dark and depressing to hit big, Napeleon was not received well by critics or audiences and Argyle the jury is out but not looking great right now for anything more than a mixed reaction. 

You know what will have been great? if Apple were the ones to buyout the Knives out franchise

Edited January 31 by Manny G

[Pinacolada]

33 minutes ago, Manny G said:

You know what will have been great? if Apple were the ones to buyout the Knives out franchise

Yeah I've thought about this a lot. If Apple or even Amazon had bought the Knives Out rights, we'd be thriving right now. Rian Johnson really sold out to the worst case scenario streamer

Edited January 31 by Pinacolada

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

They already have the Johansson/Tatum romcom directed by Greg Berlanti and the Clooney/Pitt thriller from Jon Watts set for theatrical release, both through Sony, later this year.

I'm curious how expensive these are. A Scarjo/Tatum romcom sounds incredible on paper, but this is a space race movie isn't it? I'm pretty sure that's the backdrop at least. Could they be astronauts? That would mean it'd be like a $100m+ movie.

 

Wolfs with Clooney and Pitt should be a slamdunk. But can Apple keep that budget to idk $50m? It's literally just them two and the next most famous person is Amy Ryan. I'm sure Pitt, Clooney and Jon Watts all got $10m+... I'd bet at least a $60m package/budget for that...

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I'm curious how expensive these are. A Scarjo/Tatum romcom sounds incredible on paper, but this is a space race movie isn't it? I'm pretty sure that's the backdrop at least. Could they be astronauts? That would mean it'd be like a $100m+ movie.

 

Wolfs with Clooney and Pitt should be a slamdunk. But can Apple keep that budget to idk $50m? It's literally just them two and the next most famous person is Amy Ryan. I'm sure Pitt, Clooney and Jon Watts all got $10m+... I'd bet at least a $60m package/budget for that...

Pitt and Clooney for 10 million each?????  
 

No way they would accept that for 10 million. Jenifer Lawrence to make No Hard Feelings last summer charged Sony  25 million

[filmlover]

30 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I'm curious how expensive these are. A Scarjo/Tatum romcom sounds incredible on paper, but this is a space race movie isn't it? I'm pretty sure that's the backdrop at least. Could they be astronauts? That would mean it'd be like a $100m+ movie.

 

Wolfs with Clooney and Pitt should be a slamdunk. But can Apple keep that budget to idk $50m? It's literally just them two and the next most famous person is Amy Ryan. I'm sure Pitt, Clooney and Jon Watts all got $10m+... I'd bet at least a $60m package/budget for that...

Given that all these movies were given the green light as Apple exclusives when they were made, I'd be shocked if those titles also didn't carry massive budgets.

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

They just need a Mainstream well reviewed crowdpleaser to come out. KOTFM was to dark and depressing to hit big, Napeleon was not received well by critics or audiences and Argyle the jury is out but not looking great right now for anything more than a mixed reaction. 

And evidently, that is not Argylle

 

Gotta say I’m not terribly surprised, it looked really bad (Ghosted tier)

 

But damn, sales pace could really hit a wall near the end 

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Bob Marley: One Love T-14: 46.52%

Drive-Away Dolls T-23: 18.5%

Unsung Hero T-86: 12.08%

IF T-107: 24.16%

The Watchers T-128: 25.56%

Terrifer 3 T-268: 26.36%

 

Argylle T-2: 34.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-30: 48.58% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 95% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 59% chance of 40M, 36% chance of 50M, 32% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M

 

Cabrini T-37: 17.05% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-37: 56.88% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 70M

[Pinacolada]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given that all these movies were given the green light as Apple exclusives when they were made, I'd be shocked if those titles also didn't carry massive budgets.

I agree. Hence, why I think Apple's gonna be waiting a little bit longer to have their first true theatrical hit. I think both of those 2 upcoming films have legit potential, but they're spending way too much on these package deals. 

 

They both should be substantially lower than KotFM, Napoleon, and Argylle though

[Bob Train]

4 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I agree. Hence, why I think Apple's gonna be waiting a little bit longer to have their first true theatrical hit. I think both of those 2 upcoming films have legit potential, but they're spending way too much on these package deals. 

 

They both should be substantially lower than KotFM, Napoleon, and Argylle though

Apple lures the auteurs by allowing massive budgets and theatrical releases. If they stop offering the big budgets, the Ridley Scotts of the world will instead go to Netflix, Amazon, etc.

[Tinalera]

Argylle 

Thurs Feb 1 fri Feb 2 (T-1 Thurs T-2 Fri)

Toronto and Vancouver Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	12	65	3143	3208	0.0202
Fri	4	25	82	7928	8010	0.0102
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	1	2	10	583	593	0.0168
Fri	3	9	15	3180	3195	0.0046

 

 

Montreal seems to only have 1 Theatre Thurs now, added a 3rd theatre for Friday. Some removal and shuffling. I mean Canada not looking big at opening, but might just be close to dead in Montreal unless theres a huge change. 

[Tinalera]

Madame Web 

Thurs Feb 15 Fri Feb 16 (am not doing Tues or Wed counts) (T-15/T-16)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	10	4	2802	2806	0.0014
Fri	3	18	3	5408	5411	0.0005
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	2	9	5	3207	3212	0.0015
Fri	2	10	9	3239	3248	0.0027

 

 

Cant speak for the numbers in the US, but here in Canada.....yea really quiet in the early going...VERY. (Interestingly enough Montreal Forum put of 2 500 seat showings, which it hasnt done for Argylle.

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Madame Web 

Thurs Feb 15 Fri Feb 16 (am not doing Tues or Wed counts) (T-15/T-16)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	10	4	2802	2806	0.0014
Fri	3	18	3	5408	5411	0.0005
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	2	9	5	3207	3212	0.0015
Fri	2	10	9	3239	3248	0.0027

 

 

Cant speak for the numbers in the US, but here in Canada.....yea really quiet in the early going...VERY. (Interestingly enough Montreal Forum put of 2 500 seat showings, which it hasnt done for Argylle.

why are you looking at thursday instead of Valentine's day(wednesday). Thursday is day 2 and is a normal winter weekday. its not going to sell that much for thursday. 

[vafrow]

36 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Madame Web 

Thurs Feb 15 Fri Feb 16 (am not doing Tues or Wed counts) (T-15/T-16)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	10	4	2802	2806	0.0014
Fri	3	18	3	5408	5411	0.0005
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	2	9	5	3207	3212	0.0015
Fri	2	10	9	3239	3248	0.0027

 

 

Cant speak for the numbers in the US, but here in Canada.....yea really quiet in the early going...VERY. (Interestingly enough Montreal Forum put of 2 500 seat showings, which it hasnt done for Argylle.

 

I'm seeing 2.0 tickets per showtime for my zone, and the quick count last night had <1 per showtime for my Friday pull, so numbers look pretty consistent just off first blush for the Canadian markets.

 

I've been wondering what multiplier effect we may get here. Things really look to be leaning towards a front load. The problem is, there aren't a lot of Valentine's Day debuts on a Wednesday. The most recent one i can find is 2007 Music and Lyrics. Madame Web isn't going to perform exactly like a Valentine's Day RomCom, but, if it does, M&L did $19.1M off of a $4.2M opening day. Seeing the drop off from Wednesday so far is making me wonder how close to that type of performance we might see, and how big a Wednesday we need to keep $30M for the five day in play. If $4M couldn't land $20M, it's hard to see how it could land $30M for MW. 

 

Valentine's Day is such a unique holiday though. I'm not sure of the more analytical types like @M37 have thoughts.

[Tinalera]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

why are you looking at thursday instead of Valentine's day(wednesday). Thursday is day 2 and is a normal winter weekday. its not going to sell that much for thursday. 

Ask and you shall receive

 

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Wed	3	10	41	2775	2816	0.0145
Thurs	3	10	4	2802	2806	0.0014
Fri	3	18	3	5408	5411	0.0005
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Wed	2	9	39	2924	2963	0.0131
Thurs	2	9	5	3207	3212	0.0015
Fri	2	10	9	3239	3248	0.0027

 

 

Its a fair point that Wed selling a little bit more. I think I get so used to Thurs opening, and was had short amount of time, didnt really think about it. But I can add the Wed for MW going forward

 

[Tinalera]

12 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm seeing 2.0 tickets per showtime for my zone, and the quick count last night had <1 per showtime for my Friday pull, so numbers look pretty consistent just off first blush for the Canadian markets.

 

I've been wondering what multiplier effect we may get here. Things really look to be leaning towards a front load. The problem is, there aren't a lot of Valentine's Day debuts on a Wednesday. The most recent one i can find is 2007 Music and Lyrics. Madame Web isn't going to perform exactly like a Valentine's Day RomCom, but, if it does, M&L did $19.1M off of a $4.2M opening day. Seeing the drop off from Wednesday so far is making me wonder how close to that type of performance we might see, and how big a Wednesday we need to keep $30M for the five day in play. If $4M couldn't land $20M, it's hard to see how it could land $30M for MW. 

 

Valentine's Day is such a unique holiday though. I'm not sure of the more analytical types like @M37 have thoughts.

That would be interesting if in fact Valentines day even in Canada we are seeing the slightly more sales-female demo buying tickets for a female featured cast. That drop from Wed to Thurs Fri is certainly interesting. As you say its not a rom com. Have to see how the days go forward, Gotta wonder if the Wed is going to almost be an early WOM as people ask about it as they make their Thurs/Fri/Sat plans.