The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

On 2/5/2024 at 9:48 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 29408/367329 439805.38 2302 shows

Friday - 5531/380822 83653.65 2276 shows

 

Pace over VD is terrific. But data continues to show this is going to be another Color Purple. 

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 40735/439035 611967.47 2802 shows

Friday - 6930/381995 106281.34 2280 shows

 

It sold like 5K 2 days ago and 6.3K yesterday. Pace it which its going, its shooting for high single digits or even low double digits VD and then drop off the cliff.  

[keysersoze123]

On 2/5/2024 at 10:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 16214/551677 273703.56 2661 shows

Friday - 7176/577582 121265.26 2699 shows

 

So its pace is < 40% of Bob Marley for VD and now even Friday pace is below Marley. I dont think its even winning 3 day weekend at this point.

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 19772/592604 330519.28 2925 shows

Friday - 8098/582685 137724.32 2715 shows

 

1st time when I tracked this, its VD was very close to Marley. Now its less than half and pace is now < 30% of Marley's pace. I am not convinced its hitting 20m over the long weekend(6 day). 

Edited February 9 by keysersoze123
fixed error in vd data

[leoh]

6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm honestly kind of surprised they even bothered with a theatrical release. It seems like an uber-nice artpiece that likely would've been dumped on Peacock if it weren't for the strikes depriving exhibitors of content. It being placed on the lethal Super Bowl weekend was, in hindsight, a sign of their lack of faith in it.

Lisa has a small budget, under 15M budget, so its pretty easy it to get a profit.

Edited February 8 by leoh

[leoh]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-8

 

Previews

Total Sales: 149

New Sales: 27

Growth: 22%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 7/4

Early Evening: 101/7

Late Evening: 41/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 80/7

IMAX: 43/6

VIP: 26/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.693x Aquaman 2 for $7.6M

0.710x HG:BoSS for $4.1M

0.378x of The Marvels for $2.5M

Avg: $4.7M

 

A big jump against comps. And with the nature of this being an opening day (and a busy theatre day), I expect the comps to climb, at least until reviews drop.

 

I can see it getting to about $6M in the end. Whether this is an outlier or not, we'll see.

 

[Eric Prime]

 

MAH BOIS

[vafrow]

15 minutes ago, Eric Creed said:

 

MAH BOIS

 

However, some are careful not to comp the Villeneuve sequel to Oppenheimer since that 3-hour Christopher Nolan directed biopic saw its early opening projections of $40M-$50M mushroom to $82.4M, largely due to Barbie halo effect. 

 

They didn't even give the courtesy of referring to "independent tracking services".

[filmlover]

Bob Marley: One Love's reviews are looking to be quite mediocre, which seem unlikely to entice those on the fence. Now it's just a question of how frontloaded it will be.

[leoh]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Bob Marley: One Love's reviews are looking to be quite mediocre, which seem unlikely to entice those on the fence. Now it's just a question of how frontloaded it will be.

was the social embargo lifted?

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, Eric Creed said:

 

MAH BOIS

yeah this matches the OW most of trackers here are projecting to Dune. 

Edited February 8 by leoh

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

was the social embargo lifted?

The review embargo just ended. They're still haven't added a bunch of the trades (which are leaning Rotten just from the headlines).

 

Bob Marley: One Love | Rotten Tomatoes

[TwoMisfits]

Can I just talk one thing about Dune 2 that even the trades seem to be missing when they compare to Oppenheimer.  Everyone is discussing the Barbieheimer "halo" effect, skyrocketing Oppy...BUT NO ONE is discussing the PLF and overall seat/showing hold down that Barbie PUT ON Oppy.

 

I remember, Barbie showings kept growing and growing and growing at my 2 locals over the presale period (1st 10, then 15, then 25, etc).  Then Barbie got Dolby, too.  And XD.  And Oppy had to make due with the scraps of what showings Barbie wasn't giving up OW (where I think my locals went from 11 showings to 14 over the whole period).  So, it ultimately went high that weekend, but it could have been higher...if seats were available.

 

That's NOT gonna be the case for Dune 2.  Not only will Dune 2 get every last PLF showing from pretty much everywhere, Dune 2 may get every dang showing/seat from everywhere...period.  Nothing is gonna be in the opening path.  Nothing.  So, this could be looking at a Dr Strange 2 set, where Dr Strange was routinely getting 6-8 screens at a 12 with all PLF.  Aka, the absolute widest OW runway possible, after having an absolute dry spell for theaters...

 

This is the exact opposite of Oppy...

 

So, we shouldn't compare it directly to Oppy, not b/c the walk ups might not show, but b/c they might have the runway where they can...week of showing sets might be enormous...

[ViewerAnon]

I think DUNE skews too 'geeky' male to have a major walkup run in normal auditoriums - much of the audience is going to prioritize a great IMAX/PLF experience over just seeing it.

 

We're already seeing that with presales where there's a mad rush for the Early Access shows (all on premium screens, I believe?) and release weekend IMAX seats with a major slowdown when it comes to average screens.

Edited February 8 by ViewerAnon

[Maggie]

65M+ huh. How are the pre sales? Is 100M dead?

[el sid]

Lisa Frankenstein, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 31 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 50 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 161 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 276.

Up mediocre 32% since yesterday.

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): Renfield (900k from previews) had 393 sold tickets = 600k,
Thanksgiving (1M) had 365 = 750k,
Firestarter (375k) had 171 = 600k,
The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 241 = 1.5M,
The Invitation (775k) had 218 = 1M,
Smile (2M) had 476 = 1.2M,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164 = 1.1M,
M3gan (2.75M) had 782 = 0.95M

and The Last Voyage of the Demeter (750k) had 258 sold tickets = 800k.
 

Average: 950k. But because it lost in most comps and because I think that its walk-ups will rather resemble those of Renfield than those of e.g. Smile 700-800k would be my guess.

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

I think DUNE skews too 'geeky' male to have a major walkup run in normal auditoriums - much of the audience is going to prioritize a great IMAX/PLF experience over just seeing it.

 

We're already seeing that with presales where there's a mad rush for the Early Access shows (all on premium screens, I believe?) and release weekend IMAX seats with a major slowdown when it comes to average screens.

Iirc the first film had good walk walkups and that was with HBO Max on top. I feel like people are really overestimating the "geeky" skew or whatever. People who will be watching it in normal screens were always going to be buying tickets pretty late anyways.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, Maggie said:

65M+ huh. How are the pre sales? Is 100M dead?

 

There wasn't much sign of it ever being likely.  That being said, I don't think we'll really have a good idea of Dune: Part Two's ultimate ceiling until reactions start pouring in and response to those reactions. 

 

---

 

FWIW, and to steal a phrase from @M37, to plant my flag, I do think D2 is gonna be at the upper end of the various projections being thrown about here, and I do think I am ultimately more bullish than M37 is.  That being said my cautious/conservative outlook on things is stopping me from issuing any hard and fast predictions, except to say I would be surprised if previews don't come in at double digits now, including EA.  

 

Double digit previews excluding EA?  Won't commit to that yet, but wouldn't surprise me, either.  Just feels like the clouds are gathering for a storm.  But feels and vibes only get one so far, so as I said, not completely ready to commit to a hard number. Nor the size of that storm.

 

Will commit to thinking D2's prospects will be a lot clearer Real Soon Now as in rapid succession we'll get:

 

2/11: Super Bowl promotions

2/15: Social Media Embargo lift/World Premiere

2/21: Review Embargo lift.

 

With four to six days between each event that gives just enough time for distinct waves to be formed, start to subside, only to be relaunched with the next wave of buzz.

 

...

 

If reactions are good and strikes a chord with the GA.   That's the ultimate test and one we'll start to see the signs of in a couple of days.

[keysersoze123]

Dune 2 is still ahead of Oppenheimer. Let us see how things go over final 3 weeks. There is nothing dead at this point. 

[TMP]

1 hour ago, ViewerAnon said:

I think DUNE skews too 'geeky' male to have a major walkup run in normal auditoriums - much of the audience is going to prioritize a great IMAX/PLF experience over just seeing it.

 

We're already seeing that with presales where there's a mad rush for the Early Access shows (all on premium screens, I believe?) and release weekend IMAX seats with a major slowdown when it comes to average screens.

Conversely - it being a Chalamet/Zendaya vehicle surely makes it no more geeky than most blockbusters, no? I feel like it’s broken through into the zeitgeist… we’ll see how it opens! Exciting times! 

[iEnri]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

yeah this matches the OW most of trackers here are projecting to Dune. 

There are trackers here predicting 70M with a possibility of a 80M, so 60M is not the consensus.

[iEnri]

"Dune is too weird for the general audience" is the new "avatar doesn't have cultural inpact" in a smaller scale.