The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 3/16/2024 at 6:08 AM, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-6, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 68

New Sales: 3

Growth: 5%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/1

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 58/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/10
IMAX:9/5
VIP: 13/5

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

0.298x HG:BoSS for $1.7M

0.347x Madame Web for $2.1M 

0.624x Aquaman 2 for $2.8M

0.104x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.149x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.283x Wonka for $4.5M

Average: $2.2M

 

Further backslide against comps. Not drastically today, but it needs to reverse the trend soon.

 

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-6, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 76

New Sales: 8

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/1

Late Afternoon: 5/6

Early Evening: 66/8

Late Evening: 4/8

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 52/10
IMAX:9/5
VIP: 13/5

4DX: 2/3

 

Comps

0.305x HG:BoSS for $1.8M

0.328x Madame Web for $2.0M 

0.628x Aquaman 2 for $2.8M

0.107x Dune 2 for $1.1M

0.156x The Marvels for $1.0M

1.357x Wonka for $4.8M

Average: $2.2M

 

Still low. I've been trying to think about why this would under index to this degree here, and outside the specific calendar situation here with it between March break and Easter, I struggle to come up with a good theory. 

 

Ghostbusters should be a franchise that resonates well here. It's always had a strong Canadian connection (the Reitmans, Akroyd, etc.). @Tinalera showed similar struggles in their pull. I don't recall if @DAJK has a track on it.

 

To be fair, Friday numbers are pretty good. Sales are currently around 3x what Thursday is showing.

 

The one piece of optimism id have around this is that it does seem like it's very family focused, amd with that, it's likely very price sensitive. MTC4 isn't playing this in any regular theatres for Thursday previews.

 

While it's not relevant here, the T-Mobile deal will probably be a big factor that will lift this in the states. While here, I wouldn't be surprised if this legs out better once GxK bumps it off premium screens for the Easter weekend. But in general, I don't think it's going to do great business here on opening weekend from what I'm seeing.

 

 

[Eric Quinn]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weird coming on Saturday because generally Saturday drops from Friday and then rise on SUN. Was there anything special yday?

Every day is special, because life is a special thing.

[vafrow]

On 3/16/2024 at 6:14 AM, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-13, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 127

New Sales: 14

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 25/3

Early Evening: 72/7

Late Evening: 30/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 58/6
VIP: 20/4

4DX: 18/3

IMAX: 29/3

 

Comps (switched to T minus)

1.323x HG: BoSS for $7.6M

2.822x  Madame Web for $17.1M

5.773x Aquaman 2 for $26.0M

2.822x GB:FE for ???

Average: $17.5M

 

It's settling in a bit, but still doing well. Comps switched to T minus, but seems to have stayed consistent even with that.

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-12, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 157

New Sales: 30

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 29/3

Early Evening: 91/7

Late Evening: 37/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 2/1

Dolby 3D: 74/6
VIP: 26/4

4DX: 22/3

IMAX: 33/3

 

Comps (switched to T minus)

1.331x HG: BoSS for $7.7M

2.661x Madame Web for $16.1M

5.414x Aquaman 2 for $24.4M

3.271x GB:FE for ???

Average: $16.0M

 

Another strong day, even though comps are actually dropping a bit, but that's more just coming down to earth a bit.

 

In contrast to GB:FE, where that film seems to struggle with the premium formats, this has people preferring the more expensive formats. It's also more front loaded, but will have that long weekend that will help walk ups.

[vafrow]

On 3/14/2024 at 4:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D3, T-22, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 8

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 2

Showtimes: 4

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 4/2

Late Evening: 4/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 8/2
Regular: 0/2

 

Zero sales day. 

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-19, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales: 1

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 2

Showtimes: 4

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 5/2

Late Evening: 4/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 9/2
Regular: 0/2

 

Nothing much happening. Next update will probably be Wednesday or so once new showtimes are up that might help boost things a bit.

Edited March 17 by vafrow

[vafrow]

On 3/14/2024 at 4:45 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D2, T-50, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 2/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 0

Showtimes: 5

Theatres: 4

 

D2 Comps (against previews+EA)

0.137x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $1.3M

4.00x Wonka for $14M

 

Still not dealing with numbers big enough to be useful. I combined the EA and previews for comps. At this stage, it's not really useful to separate it.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D4, T-48, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 2/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 2/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 4

Showtimes: 5

Theatres: 4

 

D4 Comps (against previews+EA)

0.400x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $1.5M

6.00x Wonka for $21M

 

This is as about as far as I'll bother with comps until I'm under 20-25 days to release. I'll aim to do weekly updates just to track growth, whatever that looks like.

[AniNate]

Is there any good news for Monkey Man? HSX is only pinning it at $26mil over four weeks right now and that would be pretty disappointing given the trailer buzz and reviews.

 

EDIT: I guess it still spiking upward there so it just might have been under the radar still

 

 

Edited March 17 by AniNate

[M37]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weird coming on Saturday because generally Saturday drops from Friday and then rise on SUN. Was there anything special yday?

Looking through MTC1 data, curiously every single film (for which I have logged the numbers) since ERAS has seen a better MTC1 Sat in terms of raw sales* than Friday: ERAS, FNAF, Marvels, HG:BoSS, Wonka, Aquaman, even Dune II

(*daily growth rate % may be slightly lower even if raw sales are slightly higher)

 

Not sure what - if anything - that means (or maybe even just an artifact of when these data points are pulled), but the typical Sat slump seems to have gone away, at least for this sample

Edited March 17 by M37

[filmlover]

Don't know if this was posted and I missed it but:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/14/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
3/22/2024	Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$31,000,000 – $43,000,000	$85,000,000 – $126,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024	Luca			Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024	Asphalt City			Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024	Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire	$43,000,000 – $56,000,000	$95,000,000 – $157,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures
3/29/2024	In the Land of Saints and Sinners			Samuel Goldwyn Films
4/5/2024	The First Omen	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$20,000,000 – $34,400,000	20th Century Studios
4/5/2024	Monkey Man	$16,000,000 – $25,000,000	$45,000,000 – $75,000,000	Universal Pictures
4/10/2024	SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE			BTS SUGA
4/12/2024	Civil War	$12,000,000 – $18,000,000	$34,000,000 – $65,000,000	A24
4/12/2024	Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead (2024)			Iconic Events Releasing
4/19/2024	The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare	$6,000,000 – $10,000,000	$12,000,000 – $34,000,000	Lionsgate

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: CIVIL WAR and THE MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[leoh]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weird coming on Saturday because generally Saturday drops from Friday and then rise on SUN. Was there anything special yday?

As I said, marketing improved a lot this week, they were in CBS and NBC shows these days, including Jimmy Fallon show, they are viral now on Instagram getting  millions of views with a clip they filmed for Jimmy Fallon show singing Ghostbusters song.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 17 by leoh

[Boxofficerules]

When do tickets go on sale for The First Omen and Abigail?

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Don't know if this was posted and I missed it but:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/14/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
3/22/2024	Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$31,000,000 – $43,000,000	$85,000,000 – $126,000,000	Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024	Luca			Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024	Asphalt City			Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024	Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire	$43,000,000 – $56,000,000	$95,000,000 – $157,000,000	Warner Bros. Pictures
....

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: CIVIL WAR and THE MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Is there some reason  *Immaculate* didn't make the chart at all? After Sydney Sweeney seemed to be everywhere in early 2024, hosting SNL, leading a potential Rom-Comaissance with ABY, etc. (ignoring the Madame Web over in the corner of the room), it feels strange that this horror film with her front & center is flying so far under the radar just days before its release.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

Is there some reason  *Immaculate* didn't make the chart at all? After Sydney Sweeney seemed to be everywhere in early 2024, hosting SNL, leading a potential Rom-Comaissance with ABY, etc. (ignoring the Madame Web over in the corner of the room), it feels strange that this horror film with her front & center is flying so far under the radar just days before its release.

It's a Neon release. They still haven't managed to leave the same footprint as, say, A24 has - their only $20M+ grossers remain Parasite and I Tonya, both of which were obviously largely assisted by awards buzz.

[Boxofficerules]

40 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

Is there some reason  *Immaculate* didn't make the chart at all? After Sydney Sweeney seemed to be everywhere in early 2024, hosting SNL, leading a potential Rom-Comaissance with ABY, etc. (ignoring the Madame Web over in the corner of the room), it feels strange that this horror film with her front & center is flying so far under the radar just days before its release.

I’ve seen Immaculate and while I thought it was good, I can’t see the GA going for it, even with Sydney Sweeney involved. There are some things that happen in it that would be quite upsetting for your regular film goer.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/16/2024 at 8:15 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-5	Jax	6	61	43	202	9,040	2.23%
		Phx	6	53	15	181	9,018	2.01%
		Ral	8	48	8	179	6,936	2.58%
	Total		20	162	66	562	24,994	2.25%
Immaculate	T-5	Jax	4	6	3	5	578	0.87%
		Phx	4	6	0	2	580	0.34%
		Ral	6	10	0	3	626	0.48%
	Total		14	22	3	10	1,784	0.56%

 

Ghosts T-5 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .967x (3m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.03x (3.49m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.188x (4.87m)

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - .547x (3.06m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .422x (3.71m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Indiana Jones - .497x (3.58m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.72m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .895x (5.73m)

 - Morbius - .628x (3.58m)
 

 

+13.3% on the day!  Tomorrow I'm looking for +11%

 

Immaculate T-5 comps

 - Night House - .667x (173k)

 - Men - .294x (124k)

 - Firestarter - .303x (114k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-4	Jax	6	64	55	257	10,396	2.47%
		Phx	6	53	20	201	9,018	2.23%
		Ral	8	48	35	214	6,936	3.09%
	Total		20	165	110	672	26,350	2.55%
Immaculate	T-4	Jax	4	6	4	9	578	1.56%
		Phx	4	6	0	2	580	0.34%
		Ral	6	10	1	4	626	0.64%
	Total		14	22	5	15	1,784	0.84%

 

Ghosts T-4 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.04x (3.21m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.17x (3.97m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.31x (5.37m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .538x (3.39m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .549x (3.07m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .432x (3.8m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .837x (3.77m)

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Indiana Jones - .536x (3.86m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.99m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .943x (6.03m)

 - Morbius - .684x (3.9m)
 

+20% on the day!  Beat out all of the comps in an excellent day of sales.  I ran a little later than normal, so I may have picked up some Sunday sales, but still a great day.  Keep in mind that I don't include any ATP or inflation adjustments so all of my comps will likely undershoot.

 

Immaculate T-4 comps

 - Night House - .882x (229k)

 - Men - .326x (138k)

 - Firestarter - .3575x (134k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/16/2024 at 8:21 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-12	Jax	5	53	16	160	9,702	1.65%
		Phx	6	39	33	214	7,067	3.03%
		Ral	8	55	15	125	7,740	1.61%
	Total		19	147	64	499	24,509	2.04%

 

T-12 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .206x (3.51m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .917x (5.14m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .611x (5.37m)
 - Venom 2 - .844x (9.79m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.78x (7.31m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .225x (3.94m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .994x (6.21m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.202x (5.41m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.28m

 

(Transformers I started tracking at T-7)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-11	Jax	5	53	11	171	9,702	1.76%
		Phx	6	39	11	225	7,067	3.18%
		Ral	8	55	37	162	7,740	2.09%
	Total		19	147	59	558	24,509	2.28%

 

T-11 comps

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - TMNT (Total) - 1x (5.62m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .653x (5.75m)
 - Venom 2 - .876x (10.16m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.898x (7.78m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - missed

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.06x (6.62m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.27x (5.73m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.74m

 

A good day for this one too.  We'll see tomorrow if it's just because of timing.

 

(Transformers I started tracking at T-7)

[jeffthehat]

On 3/12/2024 at 5:50 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-9

Sales	Seats	Shows
943	26742	146

Comp

0.66x Dune: Part Two T-9 = $6.6m

Indiana

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-4

Sales	Seats	Shows
1250	28360	152

Comp

0.64x Dune: Part Two T-4 = $6.4m

---

Had issues getting sales this week, fixed for now

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-11

Sales	Seats	Shows
776	27393	161

Comps

0.60x Dune 2 T-11 = $6.0m

0.95x Ghostbusters FE T-11 = ??

 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/12/2024 at 6:02 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Indiana

The Fall Guy T-51

Sales	Seats	Shows
179	14563	79

 

Monkey Man T-23

Sales	Seats	Shows
88	6108	41

---

Pulled these this morning. Fall Guy starts about 2x Monkey Man first day in sales and shows. 

 

Indiana

Monkey Man T-18

Sales	Seats	Shows
132	6810	49

Comps

0.13x Dune 2 = $1.3m

0.21x Ghostbusters FE = ??

[leoh]

37 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Monkey Man T-18

Sales	Seats	Shows
132	6810	49

Comps

0.13x Dune 2 = $1.3m

0.21x Ghostbusters FE = ??

the journey to 100M+ OW has just started now 😌

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

I’ve seen Immaculate and while I thought it was good, I can’t see the GA going for it, even with Sydney Sweeney involved. There are some things that happen in it that would be quite upsetting for your regular film goer.

Glad you thought it was good. I seen it on Saturday and got a kick out of those upsetting things lol. So gnarly. 
 

It’s a shame Neon are so small though, because Immaculate, Cuckoo and Longlegs all are/look extremely interesting. But the marketing power just isn’t available to them. 

Edited March 18 by Krissykins