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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR & Friends,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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vale9001 Box Office Gold

vale9001

Posted
Posted (edited)

the reviews for The fall guy in my country are even better than in the US. Let's see if the audience will really like it and at least can have a surprising WOM with the summer season coming. 

Edited by vale9001
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JonathanMB Indie Sensation

JonathanMB

Posted
Posted
On 4/23/2024 at 7:35 AM, JonathanMB said:

 

I'm out in the western suburbs of Chicago and do unofficial checks in my area to get a vibe on how a movie is selling, and it's pretty low so far at the AMCs near me, but in Chicago itself it's selling stupid-well, with several Thursday and even Friday evening shows already 50%+ full. So it seems like there will be a bit of a divide in those markets for this. Hopefully good WOM spreads and helps give the suburbs a bump at some point?

 

Checked the same theaters again, sales picked up a little bit at each of them for Thursday, but then I decided to check Friday night's showtimes and each theater has already sold 50%+ more tickets for Friday than Thursday; which is rare around here. So hopefully that means a somewhat backloaded preview-to-Friday ratio?

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted

Santikos Tracking

 

Unsung Hero (EA) - 632/1,378

 - Downton (EA) - 3.63x (3.27m)

 - Top Gun (EA) - .46x (2.12m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .507x (1.22m)

 

Unsung Hero (Previews) - 52/2,074

 - Downton - .264x (277k)

 - Crawdads - .139x (278k)

 - Easter Sunday - .945x (473k)

 

Challengers (Previews) - 79/5,541

 - Massive Talent - 1.795x (1.5m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .454x (500k)

 

Don't really have any good comps here

 

Boy Kills World (Previews) - 6/1,488

 - Ambulance - .6x (420k)

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

the reviews for The fall guy in my country are even better in the US. Let's see if the audience will really like it and at least can have a surprising WOM with the summer season coming. 

Honestly if it does not I do not want to hear people saying they don't make good mainstream Hollywood movies anymore it's all CG fests that we are not interested in. You are full of shit people if a movie like this does not do well and you sit on your ass at home and wait for a CG fest you claim you are sick of.

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

Honestly if it does not I do not want to hear people saying they don't make good mainstream Hollywood movies anymore it's all CG fests that we are not interested in. You are full of shit people if a movie like this does not do well and you sit on your ass at home and wait for a CG fest you claim you are sick of.

Denial

Anger

Bargaining

Depression

Acceptance

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

Please forget everything I said about Unsung Hero having weak presales in my theaters.

Yesterday I was stupid enough to look for EA shows but couldn't find them because I counted the Thursday first and then forgot to change the name on Wednesday, to add 'Early Access' 😉.

 

Its sales for today are very good - around 500 sold tickets (without the AMC in NY where it has no shows).

Even status "Almost Full" in the AMC Lincoln Square in NY and my normal AMCs in San Francisco and LA. 

Details later, hopefully with some comps.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
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4 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Honestly if it does not I do not want to hear people saying they don't make good mainstream Hollywood movies anymore it's all CG fests that we are not interested in. You are full of shit people if a movie like this does not do well and you sit on your ass at home and wait for a CG fest you claim you are sick of.

Dude, you need to chill. :lol: The world will not end if The Fall Guy isn't a smash hit.

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Dude, you need to chill. :lol: The world will not end if The Fall Guy isn't a smash hit.

I know. =)It's just frustrating. If this were getting like eh it's fine whatever reviews so be it, I would not care one bit. 

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Flopped Box Office Gold

Flopped

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Honestly if it does not I do not want to hear people saying they don't make good mainstream Hollywood movies anymore it's all CG fests that we are not interested in. You are full of shit people if a movie like this does not do well and you sit on your ass at home and wait for a CG fest you claim you are sick of.

 

Maybe Fall Guy is good (I hope so anyway) but the trailer looks abhorrent and not like the savior of mainstream Hollywood. Maybe that's why pre-sales are soft? 

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vale9001 Box Office Gold

vale9001

Posted
Posted (edited)
Just now, Flopped said:

 

Maybe Fall Guy is good (I hope so anyway) but the trailer looks abhorrent and not like the savior of mainstream Hollywood. Maybe that's why pre-sales are soft? 

 

 

even if true has this ever been a problem?

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

even if true has this ever been a problem?

While not agreeing on the trailer looking abhorrent they are right esp in these post COVID times if the trailer is not clicking for people for whatever reason that would explain the Presales. That's why WOM will be important to this movie. People trust other regular people more than critics  a lot of the times. 

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vale9001 Box Office Gold

vale9001

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

While not agreeing on the trailer looking abhorrent they are right esp in these post COVID times if the trailer is not clicking for people for whatever reason that would explain the Presales. That's why WOM will be important to this movie. People trust other regular people more than critics  a lot of the times. 

 

of course when a trailer doesn't click with people this explains low sales. That's why trailers exist. My point was bad trailers in general clicks a lot with the GP taste 😂

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Speedorito Sleeper Hit

Speedorito

Posted
Posted

I feel like there’s no real point in stressing over pre-sales for The Fall Guy anymore. If it was going to click with people it would’ve by now. I doubt Apes or Furiosa are going to be big enough to fully eclipse The Fall Guy, so it’s better to just cross your fingers and hope for strong legs.

 

If it still doesn’t click people after it opens then…I don’t know I guess.

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted

I think it's too reductive to say that a poor trailer is leading to poor sales. We have very little to evaluate the effectiveness of a trailer other than pointing to impact on sales or subjective assessments. But sales are driven by a lot of factors.

 

Personally, I think the trailer is fine. But it's not an all timer or anything. I don't think you can say the trailer specifically is what's killing this without other evidence.

 

I think we need to look at whether this type of film just has some audience limitations. I know that Bullet Train is the benchmark that's getting used frequently, but, The Lost City strikes me as a good comparison. If the goal is a good date night film, then this feels like its got a lot of overlap. It had marquee stars and was targeting the female demo, but could barely muster above $100M.

 

The story isn't written on this yet, but I do find it extremely disappointing so far. I still had hope it would break out more even a week ago. But doing daily updates where it's just not selling many tickets is pointing to that trend continuing.

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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Back to Black T-23: 24.25%

The Strangers - Chapter 1 T-23: 31.68%

Maxxxine T-72: 16.13%

The Forge T-121: 15.75%

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-135: 50.9%

Transformers One T-149: 34.16%

 

Challengers T-2: 31.69% Awareness

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

 

Unsung Hero T-2: 17.56% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Furiosa T-30: 31.98% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 13% chance of 40M, 10% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 90M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Bikeriders T-58: 15.11%

T-60 Awareness: 30% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 10% chance of 10M

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

Challengers, counted today for tomorrow, had 669 sold tickets. Best sales in San Francisco. 

Up nice 36% since yesterday.

 

Comps (all four movies counted on Wednesday for Thursday): TLC (2.5M from previews) had 520 sold tickets = 3.2M.

Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 359 = 2.05M.

Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 209 = 2.25M.

Argylle (1.7M) had 847 = 1.35M.

(Marry Me (525k) finally had 198 sold tickets = 1.75M plus 1 day left.

And No Hard Feelings (2.15M) finally had 368 sold tickets = 3.9M plus 1 day left.)

 

Average (without MM and No Hard Feelings): 2.2M. With the other two comps included it would look (even) better, so I stick with 2.5M.

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