The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

THE FALL GUY

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
503	2952	101725	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

849

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

COMPS

T-1

(1.539x) of Civil War $2.46M

(0.957x) of Challengers $2.78M

Comps average: $2.62M

 

The best day so far. Very good recovery i would say. Bodes well for walkups tomorrow. 

Things are looking up!

[ThomasNicole]

37 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

This might be a walkup heavy movie?  Why has nobody said that was a possibility..... Having said that it could just be that area.  At least a positive sign. I will take it.

This is tracking thread, is an extrapolation based on actual data, i don’t think is needed to say that once the movie opens the sales can go either way depending on walkups (or the lack of them).
 

This is truth for pretty much every movie imo, Fall Guy doesn’t need different treatment just because the presales so far are bad. Everyone knows it can surprise in the next days.

[DAJK]

Fall Guy did like half of Civil War in ticket sales for EA at comparable theaters in my area.

 

Lowering my prediction to 20-22M.

Edited May 2 by DAJK

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Fall Guy:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 11 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $1.54M

Argylle: $2.21M

The Beekeeper: $1.34M

Gran Turismo: $.79M

Bullet Train: $1.81M

 

Bad. Very bad. Not a single sale anywhere. Closer to $1.5M-$2.5M.

 

Friday Comps:: 

 

Theater 1: 8 Tickets

Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $6.87M

Argylle: $10.77M

The Beekeeper: $5.36M

Gran Turismo: $16.02M

Bullet Train: $13.09M

 

Bit of wide range. Feeling just around $10M for now

The Fall Guy:

 

Thursday Comps:: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 14 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $1.79M

Argylle: $2.63M

The Beekeeper: $.96M

Gran Turismo: $.74M

Bullet Train: $1.24M

 

Still not great. Banking heavily on walk-ups, but for now $1.5M. 

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets

Theater 2: 23 Tickets

 

TMoUW: $4.20M

Argylle: $6.07M

The Beekeeper: $5.14M

Gran Turismo: $6.52M

Bullet Train: $10.46M

 

Okay, I'm heading way down on this. $6M unless it acts like the under-indexed Bullet Train in my area. 

 

At this rate $2+$6+$8+$5 =$21M

Edited May 2 by crazymoviekid

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Tarot:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets

Theater 2: 4 Tickets

 

Abigail: $1.14M

Imaginary: $.41M

Night Swim: $1.29M

Thanksgiving: $.73M

Firestarter: $.38M

 

Decent day. Leveling off at $1M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 0 Tickets

 

Abigail: $1.52M

Imaginary: $2.17M

Night Swim: $1.27M

Thanksgiving: $1.21M

Firestarter: $.56M

 

Not great start. Looking around $1.5M-$2M

Tarot:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets

Theater 2: 4 Tickets

 

Abigail: $.64M

Imaginary: $.50M

Night Swim: $1.00M

Thanksgiving: $.64M

Firestarter: $.28M

 

Dropping off. Closer to $.5M-$.6M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets
Theater 2: 3 Tickets

 

Abigail: $2.02M
Imaginary: $1.24M
Night Swim: $1.63M
Thanksgiving: $1.70M
Firestarter: $1.17M

 

More consistent with Thursday. Looking around $1.5M.

Edited May 2 by crazymoviekid

[Flopped]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

This did like half of Civil War in ticket sales for EA at comparable theaters in my area.

 

Lowering my prediction to 20-22M.

 

This = Fall Guy? 

[emoviefan]

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/30/2024 at 10:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	96	52	362	16676	2.17
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	54	369	5129	7.19
TOTALS:	119	106	731	21805	3.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		269	36	74.31
MTC1:		248	34	68.51
Alamo:		29	5	8.01
Other chains:		85	13	23.48

 

Thursday Comps:

1.16x Monkey Man: $1.62 Million

0.58x Civil War: $1.68 Million

0.35x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.65 Million (17 theaters)

0.45x Madame Web (OD):  $2.7 Million (17 theaters)

0.63x Wonka: $2.22 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.5 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.06 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.34x Challengers: $735k

1x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $605k

0.81x Mean Girls: $525k

0.48x MI7: $955k

 

Average: $705k

 

I will try to do a T-1 hour update for EA tomorrow but we shall see if that happens. EA maybe around $700-800k from my numbers, Thursday continues to look anemic.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	99	154	516	16881	3.06
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	131	500	5129	9.75
TOTALS:	122	285	1016	22010	4.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		360	91	69.77
MTC1:		300	52	58.14
Alamo:		38	9	7.36
Other chains:		178	93	34.5

 

Thursday Comps:

1.27x Monkey Man: $1.78 Million

0.62x Civil War: $1.8 Million

0.43x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $2 Million (17 theaters)

0.45x Madame Web (OD):  $2.72 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x Wonka: $2.53 Million (17 theaters)

0.62x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.8 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.27 Million

 

EA T-1 Hour Comps:

1.45x Challengers: $795k

0.45x Dune Part 2: $895k

0.85x Mean Girls: $550k

0.51x MI7: $1.03 Million

 

Average: $815k

 

Pretty good day, for both the EA and Thursday previews. Comps are a bit all over the place but I would probably put the EA at around $750-850k. I believe I will be able to give a T-1 hour update tomorrow so I'll wait on a final prediction until then, but for now I will just say this is a promising update after a disappointing final week!

[emoviefan]

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/30/2024 at 10:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Tarot (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	73	17	51	6613	0.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		25	3	49.02
Alamo:		5	5	9.8
Other chains:		21	9	41.18

 

Comps:

0.38x Abigail: $385k

0.76x First Oman: $550k

Immaculate: Missed

0.48x Imaginary: $345k

0.44x Last Voyage of Demeter: $320k

 

Average: $400k

 

Probably settle around $400-500k unless this has crazy last-minute growth

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Tarot (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	75	50	101	6757	1.49

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		45	20	44.55
Alamo:		6	1	5.94
Other chains:		50	29	49.5

 

Comps:

0.53x Abigail: $535k

0.82x First Oman: $595k

0.925x Immaculate: $510k

0.7x Imaginary: $510k

0.57x Last Voyage of Demeter: $430k

 

Average: $515k

 

Also a really good jump, maybe indicative of good walk-ups. I'll go with a final prediction of $550k, +/-100

[abracadabra1998]

48 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Fall Guy did like half of Civil War in ticket sales for EA at comparable theaters in my area.

 

Lowering my prediction to 20-22M.

 

I do think Civil War EA was very limited in screenings though (in Minne, for example, only 1 of 25 theaters I track had EA, versus 19 for Fall Guy), so perhaps not the best comparison here

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

I do think Civil War EA was very limited in screenings though (in Minne, for example, only 1 of 25 theaters I track had EA, versus 19 for Fall Guy), so perhaps not the best comparison here

Doesn't that just make the fact Fall Guy has less ticket sales but more screenings sound even worse?

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Doesn't that just make the fact Fall Guy has less ticket sales but more screenings sound even worse?

Same thing I was thinking. Unless they are talking ATP rather than money made.

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Doesn't that just make the fact Fall Guy has less ticket sales but more screenings sound even worse?

Not really, because what was stated was that the comparison was in “comparable theaters” which I am assuming means like-for-like.
 

I think it would actually have the opposite effect. If on the Monday of its EA you wanted to watch Challengers in the twin cities metro, you had to go to the one theater showing it. If you wanted to watch Fall Guy tonight, you had over a dozen options. If I just compare the one theater, Challengers actually beat the fall guy there if I look at the T-1 hour updates; if I compared the metro area ticket sales, Fall Guy had triple the sales.
 

Anyway, more broadly, for these EA grosses, number of screenings is a much more important variable than it would be in a normal Thursday preview

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

The Fall Guy T-2ish

Sales	Seats	Shows
531	19708	112

Comps

0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $1.4m*

0.20x Dune 2 T-2 = $1.8m*

1.43x Challengers T-2 = $2.1m

0.28x GxK NE T-2 = $2.5m*

0.91x Civil War T-2 = $2.7m

*pulled 10-12 hrs earlier, rounded comp down 10% to account

 

AVG = $2.1m

---

Pace hasn't looked encouraging to me in other markets. Challengers finished with meh walkups after good final pace so hopefully the inverse happens here. 

Indiana

The Fall Guy T-1ish*

Sales	Seats	Shows
622	19757	113

*pulled 10PM EST

Comps

0.33x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $1.5m*

0.20x Dune 2 T-1 = $1.8m*

1.33x Challengers T-1 = $2.0m

0.27x GxK NE T-1 = $2.4m*

0.88x Civil War T-1 = $2.6m

*pulled 10-12 hrs earlier, reduced comp 10% to account

 

AVG = 2.06m
---

Not as good of a day here. Slipped a little bit vs. comps. Thinking $2.2m +/- 0.3m true Thursday. 

Edited May 2 by jeffthehat

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 16925/92957 368498.63 378 shows +1441

Previews(T-2) - 19290/379052 392914.54 1919 shows +2576

Friday - 21782/726203 424962.12 3689 shows +3952 

 

not much of an acceleration today. ATP is good and it should play better and so I am expecting 33-35% ratio. Still looking at low 2s pure thursday and around ~3m with early shows. OW could go as low as mid 20s if things dont pick up 😞

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows Final - 21963/92957 468401.07 378 shows +5038

Previews(T-1) - 23429/379932 472393.91 1926 shows +4139 

Friday - 28125/729879 541667.41 3715 shows +6343

 

I expect early shows to over index MTC1 big time. May be 750K for early shows. No update to rest of the weekend predictions. May not hit 3m even with early shows. 

[Rorschach]

On 5/1/2024 at 12:09 AM, Rorschach said:

The Fall Guy - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday Early Access:

1 IMAX showing: 8/388

1 XD showing: 16/238

Total: 24/626 (3.8% sold) [+2]

The Fall Guy - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday Early Access (final):

IMAX showing: 10/388

XD showing: 15/238

Total: 25/626 (3.9% sold) [+1]

 

^ These numbers were taken at the start of the first showtime (the 7:00 CST IMAX showing shown above, the XD showing was a half hour later) so probably not too far off from the actual final total. I work late afternoon to evening shifts so I couldn't post this until now. Hoping to use this as a comp for future early access shows. 

[Maaatt]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Same thing I was thinking. Unless they are talking ATP rather than money made.

 

I mean one way to read what they said is comparing the same theaters and if thats the case then you'd expect Civil Wars theaters to be more crowded because there were so much fewer options relative to The Fall Guy where the early access screenings are more widespread so tickets are spread between more screens. For example if i lived in a town with 4 local theaters and when Civil War opened only 1 screen had an early access screening then everyone in town wanting to go to it must got to that 1 screening, but when The Fall Guy opens all 4 local theaters have an early access screening thus allowing tickets to spread to 4 theaters across town instead of just 1, in this case comparing the 1 theater that had early access screenings for both movies isn't necessarily a great comp, given The Fall Guy is also playing in 3 other screens in town.  Thats at least how read it, though I could totally be wrong here. 

[Rorschach]

On 5/1/2024 at 12:09 AM, Rorschach said:

The Fall Guy - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 1/776

2 XD showings: 5/476

4 2D showings: 29/404

Total: 35/1,656 (2.1% sold) [+20]

 

Friday:

5 IMAX showings: 21/1,940

1 XD showing: 1/238

6 2D showings: 33/674

Total: 55/2,852 (1.9% sold) [+25]

 

Thurs + Fri: 90/4,508 (2% sold) [+45]

 

 

Tarot - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 17/489 (3.5% sold) [+5]

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 13/581 (2.2% sold) [+6]

Thurs + Fri combined: 30/1,070 (2.8% sold) [+11]

 

 

The Phantom Menace 25th Anniversary - Tuesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

3 XD showings: 5/714 

9 2D showings: 134/708 

Total: 139/1,422 (9.8% sold) [+14]

 

The Fall Guy - Wednesday Night Outlook 

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 6/776

2 XD showings: 11/476

4 2D showings: 33/404

Total: 50/1,656 (3% sold) [+15]

 

Friday:

5 IMAX showings: 26/1,940

1 XD showing: 1/238

6 2D showings: 58/674

Total: 85/2,852 (2.3% sold) [+12]

Thurs + Fri: 135/4,508 (3% sold) [+45]

 

 

Tarot - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 19/489 (3.9% sold) [+2]

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 20/581 (3.4% sold) [+7]

Thurs + Fri combined: 39/1,070 (3.6% sold) [+9]

 

 

The Phantom Menace 25th Anniversary - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday

3 XD showings: 18/714

9 2D showings: 136/708

Total: 154/1,422 (10.8% sold) [+15]

Edited May 2 by Rorschach

[Porthos]

On 5/1/2024 at 2:57 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-2]

647/18444 (3.51% sold) [+104 tickets] [EA: 176/2921 | Thr: 471/15523] [+25 | +79] 124 showings.

 

0.25859x RotB at T-2        [2.28m]
0.41132x BOSS at T-2        [2.37m]
0.63245x Wonka at T-2     [2.21m]
0.51025x Aqua 2 at T-2     [2.30m]
0.53782x  GB:FE at T-2     [2.53m]

 

=====

 

Meh.  No real movement on comps, though is trending very slightly downwards.

 

...

 

At least it isn't collapsing. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

My bigger worry/concern is that there is very little movement on the Wed EA showings.  Only 25 tickets for a T-1 EA izza nah good.  Not exactly the greatest of omens.  Have to see how it actually goes tomorrow, I suppose.

 

Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-1]

1047/18907 (5.54% sold) [+400 tickets] [EA: 395/2921 | Thr: 652/15523] [+219 | +181] 128 showings.

 

0.30507x   RotB at T-1     [2.68m]
0.53364x  BOSS at T-1    [3.07m]

0.82701x   Wonka at T-1  [2.89m]
0.62545x  Aqua 2 at T-1  [2.81m]
0.69200x GBFE at T-1      [3.25m]

 

====

 

It'd be overselling it to post the Ramsey "Finally some good fucking food" gif, but... Trending in the right direction.  Finally.

 

Now it has to be said, EA put thumb on the scale.  On the other hand, EA was kinda moribund before today, so that there were very nice walkups for it is a decent omen for tomorrow/today.  Also, RotB had an identical EA on its T-1, and this grew about .4m against the comp.

 

Not saying 3m is in the cards.  But it might be in the conversation.  Maybe.  Likely better than the 2.5m it was looking like for a while at least.

 

(still, one market; one day; sample size, yadda yadda)

 

NB:  Next update will be at Final (around 5pm Pacific) as I don't make mid-day updates for Q&Ds.