The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Hadn’t ever heard of Reagan until today when I seen it in BOR’s forecast on X. 

Even the name of its studio (Showbiz Direct) makes it give off a "fake movie" vibe all over lmfao.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

I think it makes sense since the rt% often gets viral posts as soon as it appears even at very low number of reviews where it is VERY, very subject to change.

 

Not that 40 reviews is all that stable either but compared to, say, 10, it's a more solid indicator.

Yeh those accounts like Discussing Film etc  jump to post “[insert film] is 100% on RT”

 

Without mentioning it’s from 6 reviews. 
 

Just click/engagement bait. 

Edited August 30 by Krissykins

[Boxofficerules]

I think what Blumhouse and Universal should do is keep playing the Speak No Evil trailer in cinemas even after it's been released, then say they'll only remove the trailer when the movie makes $100 million domestically.

[AniNate]

4 hours ago, cubek said:

RT recently updated its criteria for tomatometer visibility, along with its popcorn meter update, see below link:

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/audience-score-update/

 

By the new standard, a movie like Beetlejuice, which is projected to make 120M+ lifetime gross, will now need 40+ reviews to have its tomatometer visible, and it currently stands at 35. The popcorn meter sees a similar tightened standard for visibility.

 

For blockbusters in the future, RT score will likely see a substantial lag compared to MTC.

 

 

Thanks for bringing attention to this. 

 

I still think it's silly to tie the tomatometer to box office projections but at least they're being transparent about it

[keysersoze123]

On 8/26/2024 at 9:25 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 23376/93317 494931.70 391 shows +2784

Previews(T-11) - 48456/707020 890067.99 3589 shows +5369

Friday - 43358/1070339 778918.51 5362 shows +7261

 

As of yesterday night. +3 days of pace. I think it will accelerate this week. Expecting previews to be at 60K ish by T-7 and then the final surge should take it what I expected earlier(12m+ true thursday). 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 28134/98041 592652.34 412 shows

Previews(T-7) - 60146/721997 1095957.07 3686 shows

 

Getting this data was not easy. So no Friday and definitely no daily updates. That said its going for whatever I predicted earlier(2.5m+ early shows and 12m+ thursday only). 

[Shawn Robbins]

Pinpoint forecasts in the BOT website and Substack reports.

 

Have a safe holiday weekend for those celebrating!

[James]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Pinpoint forecasts in the BOT website and Substack reports.

 

Have a safe holiday weekend for those celebrating!

My bet right now is 165m OW. Can’t wait to see how the presales look like.

[filmlover]

15 hours ago, Eric Ripley said:

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-where-are-gladiator-ii-and-venom-the-last-dance/

 

Pretty funny to see this list being dominated by Disney movies except for the one from Universal. If IEWU could manage a $50M OW thanks almost entirely to female audiences (the demo breakdowns showed that the attempt at courting the Deadpool & Wolverine geek community into seeing it was greeted with a "thanks but no thanks") I don't think $60M+ would be that crazy for Wicked, especially since it should easily play more broadly as an IP + VFX-driven extravaganza.

Edited August 30 by filmlover

[AniNate]

IEWU was also doing pretty lousy in quorum not long before it released. So a much bigger level of silent hype may very well reveal itself closer to Wicked's opening.

[jeffthehat]

On 8/26/2024 at 6:45 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-10

Sales	Seats	Shows
1896	38470	208

TC=28, pulled 12PM EST

Comps

2.19x Ghostbusters FE = $10.3m

1.41x Dune 2 = $14.1m

2.18x Godzilla x Kong = $21.8m

 

AVG = $15.4m

 

Doin really good here too

 

Indiana

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-6

Sales	Seats	Shows
2346	38095	203

TC=28, counted 12PM EST

True Thursday Comps

2.31x Ghostbusters FE = $10.9m

1.39x Dune 2 = $13.9m

2.04x Godzilla x Kong NE = $20.4m

 

AVG = $15.05m

 

Five shows disappeared, not sure if they're sellouts or if they've been removed. Still doing very well 

Edited August 30 by jeffthehat

[Grand Cine]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 28134/98041 592652.34 412 shows

Previews(T-7) - 60146/721997 1095957.07 3686 shows

 

Getting this data was not easy. So no Friday and definitely no daily updates. That said its going for whatever I predicted earlier(2.5m+ early shows and 12m+ thursday only). 

 

Comparaison :

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 37886/55706 741067.76 182 shows

Previews(T-7) - 73605/549587 1431062.97 2772 shows

 

GXK MTC1

Previews(T-7) -  37023/566012 717972.07 2968 shows

 

EA for Dune was earlier than Beetlejuice so i expect 2-2,5M for EA as @keysersoze123, same for Thursday previews (the average is at 11,4M at this point. With the labor weekend , the boost for final week will be Tuesday , the jump will be big . Expect always 100-110M OW.

 

[keysersoze123]

Beetlejuice has way more Early shows and will grow more than Dune 2 in the final week.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/26/2024 at 6:56 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
688	7681	143109	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

680

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(1.320x) of Dune 2 $12.27M

(0.304x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $11.70M

Comps AVG: $11.99M

 

Bringing out the big guns since this is performing like a big blockbuster 

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
729	8619	151634	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.240x) of Dune 2 $11.53M

(0.287x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $11.06M

Comps AVG: $11.30M

 

Still looks like $11M+ Thursday to me. Pace has slowed down a bit 

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-7)

 

21 showtimes/292 tix sold (+13)

 

1.27x AQP Day One (T-7) [8.77m]
1.85x Alien: Romulus (T-7) [12.03m]
2.23x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [12.43m]

7.89x Borderlands (T-7) [10.26m]

 

I’m hoping the acceleration hasn’t started yet, it’s slowly slipping against other comps + there hasn’t been a review bump. Previews are probably heading for 12m now, but could end up as low as 10m if pace doesn’t pick up.

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-6)

 

21 showtimes/321 tix sold (+29)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-6) 
1.81x Alien: Romulus (T-6) [11.77m]
2.36x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [13.16m]

8.68x Borderlands (T-6) [11.28m]

 

pace was better today, still think previews should be able to get to 12m.

[charlie Jatinder]

I think more like $3.5-4M early shows.

[vale9001]

15 hours ago, AniNate said:

IEWU was also doing pretty lousy in quorum not long before it released. So a much bigger level of silent hype may very well reveal itself closer to Wicked's opening.

 

it ends with us released a trailer just 2 months and a half before the movie and then nothing happened until 10 days before the movie. Probably also because of all the behind the scenes drama. 

 

Wicked has been more constantetly promoted from Super Bowl to the olympics in the last weeks (the cast in paris, special ads on Nbc dedicated to the movie and sports etc..). I would suppose the "silent hype" for wicked is not IEWU level for this reason. The movie is way more promoted and exposed than IEWU. 

Edited August 31 by vale9001

[AniNate]

Inside Out 2's quorum also underindicated how big it would be, compared unfavorably to all the other summer tentpoles including Despicable Me 4.

[WorkingonaName]

Quorum predicted Barbie would open to $40M, don't know why anyone still uses it.  

[vafrow]

On 8/30/2024 at 7:35 AM, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-7, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 121

New Sales: 16

Growth: 15%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 3.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 98

New sales: 1

Growth: 1%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/11

Early Evening: 79/13

Late Evening: 36/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 6/9

Dolby: 36/9

VIP: 59/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.862x GB:FE for $8.7M

0.535x GxK for $5.4M

 

Average: $7.1M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

3.174x Fall Guy for $10.0M

2.126x Twisters for $22.8M

3.369x GB:FE for $15.8M

0.969x GxK for $9.7M

 

Average: $14.4M

 

First day of double digit growth in a long time. Hopefully first of several.

 

I probably should decouple the Twisters and Fall Guy comps to report separately on previews. I might make the shift this weekend. 

 

 

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 129

New Sales: 8

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 3.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 110

New sales: 12

Growth: 12%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 8/11

Early Evening: 83/13

Late Evening: 38/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 6/9

Dolby: 38/9

VIP: 65/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

5.609x TFG for $13.2M

3.794x Twisters for $30.4M

1.897x GB:FE for $8.9M

0.520x GxK for $5.2M

 

Average: $14.4M

 

Comps - previews

2.000x Fall Guy for $1.6M

1.310x Twisters for $3.5M

 

Average: $2.5M

 

I switched up the comps to separate out previews and EA shows.

Edited August 31 by vafrow

[vafrow]

On 8/30/2024 at 7:41 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, D3, T-21, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 7

New sales: 0

Growth: 0%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 2/4

IMAX: 3/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.333x KFP4 for $1.6M

0.625x IO2 for $8.1M

0.556x DM4 for $15.1M

 

Average: $8.3M

 

Zero sales day. It's brought the crazy end of the comps down.

 

I don't think there's too much that'll happen on this for a while. I will probably only update periodically.

 

Transformers One, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 8

New sales: 1

Growth: 14%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 2/4

IMAX: 3/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.333x KFP4 for $1.6M

0.227x IO2 for $3.0M

0.147x DM4 for $4.0M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

I switched up the comps to T minus, which caused a drop. Will probably update only next weekend.