The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL Local (THUR/5pm)

Screens have expanded from 2 to 4 for previews and from 2 to 7 for the w/e

 

Terrifier:  304/1007 (Thur) / 274/1781 (Fri)

 

 

COMPS

Joker 2: $6.56m
Trap: $7.44m
Longlegs: $3.64m
Freddys: $8.36m
Saw X: $5.07m
Boogeyman: $6.621m

 

With theater and screen counts and the rating I'm rather sure that these comps are not good.  Longlegs is probably the best of the bunch

Edited 4 hours ago by TalismanRing

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

If Moana 2 managed to negotiate plf screens when the film wasn't even on the calendar to start the year, then that's some ridiculous leverage they have on theatre chains even coming off that disastrous 2023.

 

We'll see who ends up with what soon enough, but I'm guessing there may be some interesting stories about jockeying for screens among the studios.

 

Like I've said in my updates, MTC4 is taking a very odd approach, with limited showings in general. It feels like the approach being taken is to allocate out screens minimally from now, and see who earns them closer to release date. 

 

 

Its really gotten worse that way. MTC4 always has been that weird thing with screens, but this year seems really, unless its a massive tentpole type, its kind of all over the place, depending on geography and demos. Earning towards release date is a good way to see it. Depending on Promotion, popularity, what movie is in the "buzz", its really hard to tell. I mean current financial situation for people isnt helping obviously as prices go up.  But it is kind of weird in seeing the presales and what inventory they release over time

[AniNate]

I will say I wouldn't be surprised if Glicked keep most of the Tuesday evening PLF. It's typically just the Thursday and Friday most schools have off and kids movies always have soft school night previews, and it's still early enough in the other movies' runs to make them more viable picks. Might be something that deflates the Moana Tuesday relative to comps

 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by AniNate

[filmpalace]

On 10/9/2024 at 11:44 PM, filmpalace said:

Terrifier 3 T-1

 

Tickets sold: 223 (+29)

Growth: 15%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

2,14x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 2,8M

9,23x The Substance (T-1) – 2,5M

10,14x Never Let Go (T-1) – 3,7M

 

Average: 3M

 

Curious to see what the final day will look like. Still plenty of tickets left for the additional showtimes over here, so there’s room for growth.

Terrifier 3 T-0

 

Tickets sold: 299 (+76)

Growth: 34%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

1,85x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 2,4M

5,07x The Substance (T-0) – 1,7M

7,66x Never Let Go (T-0) – 2,8M

 

Average: 2,3M

 

Dropped against all comps, but I wouldn't say this had a bad final day. Will predict 2M (+/- 0.2M) for it. Very curious to see how this will perform during the weekend.

Edited 3 hours ago by filmpalace

[keysersoze123]

 

 

Impressive it has beaten Dune 2 which had a strong fan driven start. I wish we had MTC1 and Sacramento data. 

[Grand Cine]

I think Dune 2 was the second best OD presales of the year. So i saw this and i found this.

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 17836/55434 367009.32 181 shows

Previews - 23147/506712 481460.73 2523 shows

Friday -  16956/784960 350817.96 3945 shows

 

So Wicked is ahead of Dune 2 and this numbers so i would like to see OD of Barbie

 

Barbie MTC1 :

Early Shows - 13791/20804 298911.09 109 shows

Previews - 14658/286235 260622.60 1715 shows

 

So clearly Wicked started very strong , much better than Barbie which is insane.

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Dune 2 was the second best OD presales of the year. So i saw this and i found this.

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 17836/55434 367009.32 181 shows

Previews - 23147/506712 481460.73 2523 shows

Friday -  16956/784960 350817.96 3945 shows

 

So Wicked is ahead of Dune 2 and this numbers so i would like to see OD of Barbie

 

Barbie MTC1 :

Early Shows - 13791/20804 298911.09 109 shows

Previews - 14658/286235 260622.60 1715 shows

 

So clearly Wicked started very strong , much better than Barbie which is insane.

 

I would be hesitant to draw that conclusion just yet. I think the tweet said presales, which covers the full weekend. I'm not certain if Dune or Wicked would be more preview/EA heavy.

 

I didn't track Barbie over a larger area, but I recall it having a much more tangible level of momentum. It might have been the surprise factor, as the community didn't see it coming, but it felt a bit different from what we saw this week.

 

But still, good pull. Trying to piece together the information we have is going to be key if we lose the ability to see MTC1 data directly.

 

It might be true, but I feel "significantly bigger than Barbie" is a pretty big piece of news. Some outlet will run with that based on studio data soon enough if it's the case.

[leoh]

36 minutes ago, filmpalace said:

Terrifier 3 T-0

 

Tickets sold: 299 (+76)

Growth: 34%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

1,85x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 2,4M

5,07x The Substance (T-0) – 1,7M

7,66x Never Let Go (T-0) – 2,8M

 

Average: 2,3M

 

Dropped against all comps, but I wouldn't say this had a bad final day. Will predict 2M (+/- 0.2M) for it. Very curious to see how this will perform during the weekend.

which city (or cities) do you track? How many theaters?

 

just curiosity 😄

[Ryan C]

I know this will probably age poorly in about a month, but it would genuinely be shocking if the highest opening for a movie this decade that's not a comic-book movie is Wicked. 

 

 

 

[Ryan C]

On 10/9/2024 at 7:03 PM, Ryan C said:

 

Terrifier 3

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 1,308 Seats Sold (10.8% Increase From Last Time)

From 13 Theaters

 

Taken as of 6:55 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A little bit less of a bump than I expected, but that could also be due to the fact that I'm tracking this one a little earlier than I did last night. Should sell a few more tickets between now and the time I tracked it last night. 

 

Also, though I understand why showtimes are starting at 8:00, that will definitely limit Thursday previews from going too high. Based on what I'm seeing right now (unless it's massively over-indexing in other markets), I would definitely expect a Thursday preview number between $1M-$2M.

 

With more showtimes being added throughout Friday-Sunday, that should keep the film in the reign of its current $10M-$15M projections. Still not seeing $20M, but that could absolutely happen if pace picks up over the weekend. 

 

Terrifier 3

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 1,977 Seats Sold (51.1% Increase From Last Time)

From 13 Theaters

 

Taken as of 7:20 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Wow! I was expecting a decent bump, but not one that was above 50%. 

 

This bodes very well for walk-up business throughout the weekend and I should note that at some of these theaters, a lot more showtimes were being added to keep up with demand. Don't know why it happened on the day that previews started and not a bit earlier, but it doesn't really matter as this is great indicator of demand being really strong for this threequel. 

 

There's always the possibility of this being front-loaded, but I'm upping my Thursday preview prediction to $1.5M at the low end and $2.5M at the high end. If it stays within that range, then it will absolutely hit $10M for the weekend and should go a bit higher than that. I think $20M is a bridge too far, but after this strong update I certainly wouldn't consider it impossible. 

 

Overall, it looks like Art the Clown might just take the #1 spot this weekend. I never thought that would be a sentence that I would unironically say, but here we are. 

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

I know this will probably age poorly in about a month, but it would genuinely be shocking if the highest opening for a movie this decade that's not a comic-book movie is Wicked. 

 

 

 

Bigger than Barbie? That is a bridge too far. 

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bigger than Barbie? That is a bridge too far. 

 

It is a bridge too far, but I was just saying that in reference to @Grand Cine posting that Wicked had a stronger first-day in pre-sales than Barbie. I didn't mean to say that it would literally be 100% bigger than Barbie. 

 

Still, it doesn't really matter if Wicked is bigger than Barbie or not. Regardless of the outcome, it's gonna be a hit in it's own right. Though like Barbie, no one really saw a massive debut for this coming. 

[leoh]

Outstanding walk ups to ‘Saturday Night’ in NY and LA.

 

Industry projections currently put its opening weekend on par with Afraid and Megalopolis opening weekend, some see it even lower. Fortunately I tracked both of them. Ain’t no way.

 

‘Saturday Night’ at the very least will make twice as much the current industry projections if it keeps this level of walk ups during the weekend. Shawn second projection will likely be proven to be accurate.

 

Certified Fresh with 80% on rotten tomatoes may be helping.

Edited 1 hour ago by leoh

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

It is a bridge too far, but I was just saying that in reference to @Grand Cine posting that Wicked had a stronger first-day in pre-sales than Barbie. I didn't mean to say that it would literally be 100% bigger than Barbie. 

 

Still, it doesn't really matter if Wicked is bigger than Barbie or not. Regardless of the outcome, it's gonna be a hit in it's own right. Though like Barbie, no one really saw a massive debut for this coming. 

We dont have as robust tracking as we had during Barbie. So I would be careful extrapolating anything at this point. 

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, leoh said:

Outstanding walk ups to ‘Saturday Night’ in NY and LA.

 

Industry projections currently put its opening weekend on part with Afraid and Megalopolis opening weekend, some see it even lower. Fortunately I tracked both of them. Ain’t no way.

 

‘Saturday Night’ at the very least will make twice as much the current industry projections if it keeps this level of walk ups during the weekend. Shawn second projection will likely be proven to be accurate.

 

Certified Fresh with 80% on rotten tomatoes may be helping.

Good to hear. Fingers crossed  this can surprise, Would be nice to have a mid budget non tentpole exceed expectations even if  still modest result.

[narniadis]

I've been out of pocket most of the last few months. Did Porthos hang up his tracking shoes? Noticed references to him and MTC1 being unavailable the last couple of weeks but didn't find anything in a search lol. Just being nosy at this point. Appreciate this thread. 

[AniNate]

I think he's typically only here for big tentpoles he's interested in

[charlie Jatinder]

Think Fandango missed one film with PG rating that was higher than Wicked, Super Mario Bros.

 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

Outstanding walk ups to ‘Saturday Night’ in NY and LA.

 

Industry projections currently put its opening weekend on part with Afraid and Megalopolis opening weekend, some see it even lower. Fortunately I tracked both of them. Ain’t no way.

 

‘Saturday Night’ at the very least will make twice as much the current industry projections if it keeps this level of walk ups during the weekend. Shawn second projection will likely be proven to be accurate.

 

Certified Fresh with 80% on rotten tomatoes may be helping.

 

47 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Good to hear. Fingers crossed  this can surprise, Would be nice to have a mid budget non tentpole exceed expectations even if  still modest result.

 

I'm hoping SN can surprise as well. I'd love to be underestimating. Can't wait to see it personally, probably in my top 2 or 3 for the remainder of the year. Trailers remind me of a lot of things I loved about The Social Network and Argo when they came out this time of year. (Steve Jobs as well, but that obviously did not have near the same commercial or award presence as the other two.)

 

Sorry, slightly off topic. 😄