The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/8/2024 at 5:51 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mean Girls (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	48	125	456	7637	5.97
Wednesday Jan 10 EA: 6 theaters	6	47	371	1325	28
TOTALS:	54	172	827	8962	9.23

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		183	65	40.13
MTC1:		204	52	44.74
Marcus:		60	23	13.16
Alamo:		34	9	7.46
Other chains:		158	41	34.65

*Chart for Thursday preview tickets only

 

Thursday comps:

1.05x Wonka: $3.67 Million

0.37x Hunger Games BoSS: $2.11 Million

0.0894x Barbie: $1.89 Million

0.82x Don't Worry Darling: $2.53 Million

 

Average: $2.55 Million

 

EA comps:

0.45x Trolls EA: $525k

1.55x Wish EA: $775k

0.6x MI7 EA: $1.19 Million

 

Average: $830K

 

REALLY good day for Thursday previews, Wednesday EA pace is worse but there are starting to be real constraint issues in a couple of the higher selling theaters so not too surprising. Again, huge regional variance for EA tracking so I don't trust my numbers a ton without knowing how the number of showings compares to other regions. Really positive growth for previews though!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mean Girls (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	78	177	633	11563	5.47
Wednesday Jan 10 EA: 6 theaters	6	63	434	1325	32.75
TOTALS:	84	240	1067	12888	8.28

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		253	70	39.97
MTC1:		284	80	44.87
Marcus:		71	11	11.22
Alamo:		44	10	6.95
Other chains:		234	76	36.97

*Chart for Thursday preview tickets only

 

Thursday comps:

1.24x Wonka: $4.34 Million

0.44x Hunger Games BoSS: $2.51 Million

0.1x Barbie: $2.18 Million

0.95x Don't Worry Darling: $2.94 Million

 

Average: $2.99 Million

 

EA comps:

0.44x Trolls EA: $520k

1.54x Wish EA: $770k

0.58x MI7 EA: $1.16 Million

 

Average: $815K

 

Heads up, my numbers for this and the Beekeeper were counted 2/3 hours later than usual, so there will be some artificial inflation (and deflation in tomorrow's numbers, it all cancels out). Even still, awesome late growth, feeling pretty good about at least $3 million for Thursday previews for now.

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/8/2024 at 5:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	62	23	122	9974	1.22

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		61	12	50
MTC1:		93	15	76.23
Marcus:		12	4	9.84
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		17	4	13.93

 

Comps:

0.83x The Equalizer 3: $3.15 Million

1.53x Expend4bles: $1.14 Million

0.24x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $1.09 Million

 

Average: $1.79 Million

 

Added the Aquaman comp since this seems to be targeting a somewhat similar audience of over-25 males. Meh pace for sure, and it's overindexing a ton at MTC1 compared to something like Aquaman.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	86	40	162	13163	1.23

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		61	0	37.65
MTC1:		124	31	76.54
Marcus:		17	5	10.49
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		21	4	12.96

 

Comps:

0.68x The Equalizer 3: $2.6 Million

1.72x Expend4bles: $1.29 Million

0.28x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $1.24 Million

 

Average: $1.71 Million

 

Looks like these comps will be converging at $1.3-1.5 Million for Thursday for now.

[dallas]

The Beekeeper

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

33 tickets sold (+33)

 

(0.170x) of Aquaman 2 - $765,000

 

Still seeing steady growth. I still feel confident in my $1.2M +/- $0.3M prediction. 

 

No update on Mean Girls, unfortunately. I stopped tracking Wonka after T-3 for some reason so I don't have any available comps. $3M previews sounds about right though.

[filmlover]

55 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Universal also has an Untitled Monster movie staring Melissa Berrara currently slated for 4/19. That might be moving up to 4/12 or getting pushed back. 

That just finished filming a few weeks ago (it was one of the productions on pause during the strike), since it still doesn't even have a title it's reasonable to assume that's getting delayed by quite a bit.

[keysersoze123]

On 1/7/2024 at 10:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Beekeeper MTC1

Previews - 6833/303790 112514.81 1736 shows

Friday - 5526/380152 88964.62 2147 shows

 

Meh pace. still under 1K per day.  

Beekeeper MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 10786/352592 177106.90 2007 shows

Friday - 10524/457952 168343.84 2600 shows

 

probably looking at 1m ish previews(minus early shows) or around 2m with early shows plus low double digits OW. 

Edited January 10 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

On 1/8/2024 at 10:14 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 14143/22821 303907.57 125 shows +1251

Previews(T-3) - 19692/270811 320234.64 1560 shows +4193

Friday - 31868/466819 505350.28 2591 shows +7573

 

I would say it was a good day. It should hit 3m previews without taking into account whatever it will do on Wednesday. 

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 14948/22633 319735.52 125 shows +805

Previews(T-2) - 23814/322707 388605.86 1909 shows +4122

Friday - 41627/576539 660782.13 3326 shows +9759

 

I will update Friday in the morning(its running now). That said weird day. Previews pace is flattish from yesterday. Let us see how rest of presales goes. Preview show count is still low while Friday is way higher at this point. 

 

Edit: Updated with Friday data. 

Edited January 10 by keysersoze123

[dallas]

Argylle is doing decent so far near me. Won't have any comps for a week or so but I wouldn't be surprised by a $20M opening

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Mean Girls, T-3, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 118

New Sales since last update: na

Growth: na

Showtimes: 12

Radius 19km

Theatres tracked MTC4

 

Early Access (T-2)

Theatres/Showtimes: 2

Total Sales: 85

Increase: na

Growth: na

 

Thursday Previews comps

2.26x The Color Purple

1.31x Wonka for $4.6M

 

I thought I'd track the final days of Mean Girls as it's doing a lot better than I thought. I lack good comps, but it's doing much better than The Color Purple, which didn't do well up here at all. It's doubling sales with a Thursday preview vs a Christmas Day opening, while also having almost robust early access sales. I didn't bother putting a dollar figure there due to how unrealistic it is. Wonka is at least a number you can wrap your head around, even if also unrealistic.

 

It's worth noting that sales are uneven among theatres. Small sample is probably skewing data, with a lot of tickets seeming to be somewhat larger group sales.

 

 

Mean Girls, T-2, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 136

New Sales since last update: 18

Growth: 15%

Showtimes: 12

Radius 19km

Theatres tracked MTC4

 

Early Access (T-2)

Theatres/Showtimes: 2

Total Sales: 110

Increase: 25

Growth: 29%

 

Thursday Previews comps

1.86x The Color Purple

1.14x Wonka for $4.0M

 

While the numbers are still good, growth is actual fairly low. I didn't track the whole run, so not sure how front loaded it's been.

 

But it might signal how much it's playing to core fans.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Mean Girls Sacramento Report [T-3]

1032/10596 (9.74% sold) [+155 tickets] 72 showtimes [EA: 494 | Stan: 538] [+48 | +107] 

 

EA: 494/1017        [48.57% sold]

Stan: 538/9579   [5.62% sold]

 

078899x BOSS at T-3       [4.54m] 
1.19444x Wonka at T-3     [4.18m]
0.15701x Barbie at T-3      [3.50m]

 

In a bit of a hurry tonight so only the three comps.  Not in love with using Barbie as a comp for myriad reasons, but threw it in at the last second since the other two were pretty high.  Probably have a few others I could pull but I'll think it over before tomorrow's report.  Maybe.

 

Either way, doing really well here locally.  Time will tell if it's a case of over-performance or not.

 

NB:::  Locally MTC2 is pretty much going ALL IN with Mean Girls and its PLF screens (as opposed to others going with the Beekeeper), so take that for what one will. 

 

Quick and Dirty Mean Girls Sacramento Report [T-2]

1224/12214 (10.02% sold) [+192 tickets] 86 showtimes [EA: 531 | Stan: 693] [+37 | +155] 

 

EA:      531/1017      [52.21% sold]

Stan: 538/11197     [6.19% sold]

 

0.30816x TLM at T-2        [3.17m]
0.22654x AtSV at T-2       [3.93m]
0.48921x RotB at T-2       [4.31m]
0.16071x Barbie at T-2      [3.58m]
1.11985x  HM at T-2          [3.47m]
0.77813x BOSS at T-2      [4.47m]
1.19648x Wonka at T-2    [4.19m]

 

=======

 

Decided to throw some spaghetti at the wall, with a mix of over and under performers locally.  Still think Wonka and Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes are the best comps, but wanted to put some variety into the mix.  Interestingly enough, neither one of those comps moved all that much.

 

Still looking like north of 4m combined EA and standard, locally.  Now we wait and see what Tomato Law will bring...

[Krissykins]

Seems decent for both Mean Girls and Beekeper if the former can get to $20m+ and the latter $10m+.

 

especially compared to last January when we had two weekends without a $10m opener and this comparable second weekend only had 1. 

[el sid]

At least so far no buzz at all also in my theaters for I.S.S. It had yesterday 9 sold tickets for Thursday, January 18 (with showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters).

[el sid]

Argylle, counted yesterday for Thursday, February 1. 23 days left:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 25 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 28 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 55 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 125.

That's a nice start. I couldn't find a film with a similar target audience which also had more than 3 weeks left but to give you some impression (all comps counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 20 days left for Argylle to overtake or increase the margin):
The 355 (350k from previews) had 118 sold tickets,
Expend4bles (750k) had 130,
Amsterdam (550k) had 184,
The Menu (1M) had 214,
The Covenant (2.2M OD, 6.3M OW) had 44

and The Beekeeper (?) had 207 sold tickets.

[vafrow]

25 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Seems decent for both Mean Girls and Beekeper if the former can get to $20m+ and the latter $10m+.

 

especially compared to last January when we had two weekends without a $10m opener and this comparable second weekend only had 1. 

 

Do we have any other $10M openers for the rest of the month though? Schedule looks pretty bleak.

 

There were at least a couple of interesting films to follow in the back half of the month last year with Plane and Missing.

 

Missing was a fun one to follow on Reddit, as one of the films producers was popping up on Reddit discussions trying to get a handle on where people thought it wss going to end up with its final gross.

[Krissykins]

40 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Do we have any other $10M openers for the rest of the month though? Schedule looks pretty bleak.

 

There were at least a couple of interesting films to follow in the back half of the month last year with Plane and Missing.

 

Missing was a fun one to follow on Reddit, as one of the films producers was popping up on Reddit discussions trying to get a handle on where people thought it wss going to end up with its final gross.

There is a Crunchyroll film on the schedule for the last weekend in January, not sure if that’s going ahead or not? 
 

I thought Missing was great. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Argylle, counted yesterday for Thursday, February 1. 23 days left:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 25 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 28 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 55 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 125.

That's a nice start. I couldn't find a film with a similar target audience which also had more than 3 weeks left but to give you some impression (all comps counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 20 days left for Argylle to overtake or increase the margin):
The 355 (350k from previews) had 118 sold tickets,
Expend4bles (750k) had 130,
Amsterdam (550k) had 184,
The Menu (1M) had 214,
The Covenant (2.2M OD, 6.3M OW) had 44

and The Beekeeper (?) had 207 sold tickets.

Fingers crossed this movie delivers quality wise. The release schedule is so empty before and after it could open well and have legs. Espicallly if the twists they are supposedly hiding build buzz after release. 

[Tinalera]

*coming out the cave that was Holidays*

 

So....am I really seeing Billie Elish is doing a concert movie now?

 

Edit NVM its a Disney Plus thing I guess. 

 

I Missed out on Mean Girls and Bee Keeper tracking I see lol. 

Edited January 10 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

Was going to take a shot at ISS but very little theatres in Canada even having presales right now, so I might wait a bit. 

[filmlover]

How is the Soul theatrical release selling around everyone else? Cause near me it's sold a grand total of zero tickets. I'm guessing Disney won't even bother reporting numbers for the Pixar re-releases if they're going to be playing to empty auditoriums for the most part (unsurprisingly considering they've been nothing to promote this).

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Argylle T-23: 22.45%

Bob Marley: One Love T-35: 35.84%

Drive-Away Dolls T-44: 17.9%

Inside Out 2 T-156: 50.64%

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-205: 11.83%

Borderlands T-212: 22.5%

 

The Beekeeper T-2: 45.56% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 51% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Medium Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 46% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

The Book of Clarence T-2: 28.39% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Mean Girls T-2: 61.72% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 95% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 79% chance of 50M

Low Awareness: N/A

 

Imaginary T-58: 26.52% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Do the twists in Argylle worth the little marketing ? I mean they only had one trailer that they have attached to everything and not much else.