The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

Some good signs for Twisters. That's why we should not doom it yet.

[excel1]

I am really curious as to what Trap is going to do, its trailer views are s strong 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 13829/68767 291546.29 304 shows +1162

Previews(T-5) - 28803/561900 550984.94  2775 shows +2575

Friday -  26976/783532 501725.00 3843 shows +3106

 

Pace is still anemic. I am thinking thursday previews is targeting 5m ish. Early shows probably another million or so. OW in low 50s with good walkups. Both Thursday/Friday are well below Apes at the moment. Pace for equivalent day is lower as well. At least preview pace is impacted by early shows just a day earlier. But Friday pace being just 60% of Apes is bad. Apes had huge run in the final week and so matching that wont be easy. 

 

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 15286/68767 321257.86 304 shows +1457

Previews(T-4) - 32354/562206 614958.55 2778 shows +3551 

Friday - 31494/785606 582219.24 3852 shows +4518

 

1st ignore my comps with Apes. That was not correct. I was looking at Zilla data instead. There is some acceleration today for sure. Let us see how the final week goes. I am still hoping for 50m+ OW. 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/13/2024 at 6:16 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-12) - 234816/1290467 4272283.08 7937 shows +4313

 

This is 24 hours of data. Compared to Thor its high teens % higher but pace is lower. It wont finish that high. I am sticking low 30s previews. Expect gap to lower to around +10% by T-7 which will  be my final report for this movie. I think only comps with 2022 will be from @Porthos, @katnisscinnaplex, @charlie Jatinder and of course @rehpyc has also promised comp for TC. I hope things go crazy in the final week. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-11) - 239300/1289971 4350030.42 7929 shows +4484

MTC1 Friday -129586/1500178 2400682.63 8348 shows

MTC2 Previews - 113332/664580 1707248.65 5148 shows 

 

This is couple of hours more than yesterday but at this point that is not relevant. 

 

[filmlover]

29 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I am really curious as to what Trap is going to do, its trailer views are s strong 

When it has to settle for second place that weekend:

 

[Porthos]

On 7/14/2024 at 3:03 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29793	37168	7375	19.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

167

 

T-12 Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.06		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	34.92%		24.50m
L&T	105.63		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	43.48%		30.63m
BP2	99.45		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	43.90%		27.85m
AM3	147.06		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	70.41%		25.74m
GOTG3	195.52		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	68.60%		34.22m
Bats	170.01		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	62.73%		36.72m
Ava 2	235.32		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	82.07%		40.00m
Dune 2	303.50		90	2430		0/174	22757/25187	9.65%		6001	122.90%		36.42m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1705/13029  [13.09% sold]
Matinee:    479/4466  [10.73% | 6.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:             863/7745  [11.14% | 11.70% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3453/11729  [29.44% | 46.82% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     161 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     163 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63352x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [39.79m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29645	37168	7523	20.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

148

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.24		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	35.63%		24.56m
L&T	104.72		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	44.35%		30.37m
BP2	98.78		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	44.78%		27.66m
AM3	145.32		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	71.82%		25.43m
GOTG3	193.74		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	69.98%		33.90m
Bats	168.38		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	63.99%		36.37m
Ava 2	227.21		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	83.72%		38.63m
Dune 2	300.92		70	2500		0/174	22687/25187	9.93%		6001	125.36%		36.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1726/13029  [13.25% sold]
Matinee:    493/4466  [11.04% | 6.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:             876/7745  [11.31% | 11.64% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3496/11729  [29.81% | 46.47% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     138 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     139 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63452x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [39.82m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

Edited July 15 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

nvm

Edited July 15 by JustLurking

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-5 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 40

New Sales : 6

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 90

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 37/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 22/8

IMAX: 10/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Previews Comps

1.600x Fall Guy for $5.0M

0.400x KOTPOTA for $2.0M

0.615x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.6M

0.161x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.360x Furiosa for $1.3M

 

EA Comp

1.667x Fall Guy for $1.3M

 

I decided to drop posting comps with EA rolled into the totals. I figure that is a harder leap to make as we get closer. With EA still doubling previews, it still distorting things, but not to that extent, IMO.

 

I still say Fall Guy is the best comp, which is pointing to $6.3M for previews plus EA.

 

 

Twisters, T-4 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales : 16

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 115

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 51/7

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 29/8

IMAX: 19/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Previews Comps

1.931x Fall Guy for $4.5M*

0.500x KOTPOTA for $2.5M

0.675x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.0M

0.191x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.452x Furiosa for $1.6M

 

EA Comp

1.983x Fall Guy for $1.6M

 

First off, I had an error for my Fall Guy comp, where I used the reported Thursday gross instead of netting out the EA. I've adjusted now, which is why it's dropped.

 

Other than that, a very positive day, with growth against all comps, and EA doing well as well.

 

Another interesting observation is that right now, 90% of sales for previews are for early evening shows. You expect that to be the biggest seller, but that's pretty extreme. I'd say it's a bit of a signal that this is ultimately casual viewing. No one is going out of their way to see this.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/13/2024 at 9:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-5	Jax	5	57	6	168	9,841	1.71%
		Phx	7	36	0	142	6,843	2.08%
		Ral	8	45	12	164	6,354	2.58%
	Total		20	138	18	474	23,038	2.06%
Twisters (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	11	32	281	2,391	11.75%
		Phx	1	2	2	25	618	4.05%
		Ral	2	2	6	55	412	13.35%
	Total		8	15	40	361	3,421	10.55%

 

Twisters (Total) T-5 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 3.09x (9.74m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .846x (7.63m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.191x (7.86m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.486x (6.54m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .626x (5.51m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .183x (3.61m)

 - Furiosa - 2.072x (7.25m)

 - Bad Boys (Total) - 1.483x (8.71m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - 1.773x (8.35m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.73m

 

Twisters (Thu) T-5 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 2.91x (6.83m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .48x (4.33m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.142x (5.71m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .843x (3.71m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .579x (3.7m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .153x (2.31m)

 - Furiosa - 1.176x (4.12m)

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - .924x (5.36m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.415x (4.85m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.66m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-3	Jax	5	57	100	268	9,841	2.72%
		Phx	7	36	59	201	6,843	2.94%
		Ral	8	45	57	221	6,354	3.48%
	Total		20	138	216	690	23,038	3.00%
Twisters (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	11	96	377	2,391	15.77%
		Phx	1	2	12	37	618	5.99%
		Ral	2	2	7	62	412	15.05%
	Total		8	15	115	476	3,421	13.91%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Twisters (Total) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 3.22x (10.15m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .912x (8.23m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.333x (8.79m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.582x (6.96m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .647x (5.7m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .206x (4.075m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Total) - 1.561x (9.17m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - 1.869x (8.8m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.19m

 

Twisters (Thu) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.209x (7.54m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .54x (4.87m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.261x (6.307m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .936x (4.12m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .62x (3.97m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .174x (2.62m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - 1.021x (5.92m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.59x (5.45m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.1m

[titanic2187]

14 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Australias opening doesn't exactly scream breakout for Twisters either, so at this point, i'dreally be surprised by the movie reaching the 75m-predictions.

That Australia 2.5m is meh no doubt but considering Apes and the Rock' San Andreas also opened to range (2.6m), maybe that is still hope this can do 50m+?

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-4 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales : 16

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 115

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 51/7

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 29/8

IMAX: 19/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Previews Comps

1.931x Fall Guy for $4.5M*

0.500x KOTPOTA for $2.5M

0.675x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.0M

0.191x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.452x Furiosa for $1.6M

 

EA Comp

1.983x Fall Guy for $1.6M

 

First off, I had an error for my Fall Guy comp, where I used the reported Thursday gross instead of netting out the EA. I've adjusted now, which is why it's dropped.

 

Other than that, a very positive day, with growth against all comps, and EA doing well as well.

 

Another interesting observation is that right now, 90% of sales for previews are for early evening shows. You expect that to be the biggest seller, but that's pretty extreme. I'd say it's a bit of a signal that this is ultimately casual viewing. No one is going out of their way to see this.

Which means this will live or die based on Walkups. This screams casual audience movie.  

[wildphantom]

A brief look at the sales for Twisters in my city in the UK doesn’t paint a pretty picture. This is going to be all about the walk-ups. 

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

A brief look at the sales for Twisters in my city in the UK doesn’t paint a pretty picture. This is going to be all about the walk-ups. 

Yeh Friday and Saturday look busier than Wednesday and Thursday, wonder if people don’t realise it’s out here midweek? 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29645	37168	7523	20.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

148

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.24		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	35.63%		24.56m			36
L&T	104.72		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	44.35%		30.37m			29
BP2	98.78		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	44.78%		27.66m			28
AM3	145.32		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	71.82%		25.43m			17.5
GOTG3	193.74		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	69.98%		33.90m			17.5
Bats	168.38		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	63.99%		36.37m			21.6
Ava 2	227.21		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	83.72%		38.63m			17
Dune 2	300.92		70	2500		0/174	22687/25187	9.93%		6001	125.36%		36.11m			12

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1726/13029  [13.25% sold]
Matinee:    493/4466  [11.04% | 6.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:             876/7745  [11.31% | 11.64% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3496/11729  [29.81% | 46.47% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     138 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     139 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63452x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [39.82m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

sacramento is suggesting sub 30m previews at this point. Not just because of comps but the pace which is still going just eh. Of course in gross I would add a 6% inflation to what ever comps look like for 2022 flicks(based on where ATP is trending at MTC1 at least).

MTC1 pace is also below Thor/Wakanda. This week its going to be well below as those movies had social media reactions boost(as did DS2). 

 

Friday comps vise Deadpool is around 10% better than thor but well below Wakanda whose friday was boosted due to Veteran's day holiday. Of course DS2 presales were in different ballpark across the board. 

 

where is @M37 at the moment.  

[wildphantom]

23 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh Friday and Saturday look busier than Wednesday and Thursday, wonder if people don’t realise it’s out here midweek? 

Could well be right.  
My Wednesday night IMAX is starting to fill up though. 

 

They’ll bundle weds/thurs into the weekend and then just hope WOM can carry it through the rest of the summer. One thing it does have going for it is there’s not masses of movies aimed at this audience on this scale coming out. 
 

Schools are fully out from next week, although it does seem more adult skewered. 

[AniNate]

On 7/13/2024 at 9:26 AM, AniNate said:

 

 

TWISTERS

 

NORTH CANTON

 

Wednesday EA - 127
Thursday - 90
Friday - 149
Saturday - 178
Sunday - 119

 

VALLEY VIEW

 

Wednesday EA - 90
Thursday - 68
Friday - 82
Saturday - 50
Sunday - 18

 

EA sales about doubled at both theaters which might be a sign of that "walkup" crowd starting to make plans. Valley View interest beginning to pick up in general.

 

Just Canton since this is now getting pretty exhausting to count:

 

Wednesday EA 193
Thursday  120
Friday 242
Saturday 210
Sunday 143

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

sacramento is suggesting sub 30m previews at this point. Not just because of comps but the pace which is still going just eh. Of course in gross I would add a 6% inflation to what ever comps look like for 2022 flicks(based on where ATP is trending at MTC1 at least).

MTC1 pace is also below Thor/Wakanda. This week its going to be well below as those movies had social media reactions boost(as did DS2). 

 

Friday comps vise Deadpool is around 10% better than thor but well below Wakanda whose friday was boosted due to Veteran's day holiday. Of course DS2 presales were in different ballpark across the board. 

 

where is @M37 at the moment.  

 

I have a theory that sales might have been depressed the last couple of days Because of Reasons That Should Be Obvious But Are BEST LEFT UNDISCUSSED IN THIS THREAD.

 

Aside from that, there is the GOTG3 comp, which along with ATP adjusting for R/PG13 differences still suggests low 30s in play.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

I have a theory that sales might have been depressed the last couple of days Because of Reasons That Should Be Obvious But Are BEST LEFT UNDISCUSSED IN THIS THREAD.

 

Aside from that, there is the GOTG3 comp, which along with ATP adjusting for R/PG13 differences still suggests low 30s in play.

it needs to be at 1.75x Guardians 3 over next 11 days to keep that in play. Wont be easy as Guardians did finish very strong. I think Thor is ultimately the best comp as we hit the release date as that was a July release and did 29m previews. 

 

That said impact of events yesterday is definitely a factor. We will know if its one off or not today. We need to look at relative pace as well apart from comps. As I said in my last post this week we saw spikes for 2022 movies due to early reactions. Guardians in fact pulled its reviews forward and that boosted its PS later this week. 

 

I said suggested sub 30m based on overall trend rather than 1 day pace. 

[Cmasterclay]

Sales for Twisters are absolutely diabolically bad around me. Florida not showing out.

[filmlover]

I wouldn't be surprised if Twisters ends up with a similar run to Nope at this point tbh.