WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[Eric is Quiet]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Ok, I get that being ridiculously pessimistic is your shtick, but a 3x multiplier in december for a family-friendly musical? Really?

I’m more baffled at him saying Americans aren’t into British stuff. Like…we love their stuff more than we love our stuff 🤣 

[SchumacherFTW]

4 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

I’m more baffled at him saying Americans aren’t into British stuff. Like…we love their stuff more than we love our stuff 🤣 

They love our stuff more than we love our stuff 😅

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

They love our stuff more than we love our stuff 😅

Blimey! I didn't know you wankers weren't into crumpets and David Beckham.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

America is fascinated with Britain, a 40m ow is far bigger than you expected and there's already plenty of data in the tracking thread to tell us Christmas is going to do well. Stop being a constant negative Nancy. 

 

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Ok, I get that being ridiculously pessimistic is your shtick, but a 3x multiplier in december for a family-friendly musical? Really?

Eh, I'd like to be proven wrong and go see Little Timmy kick everyone's ass, and it's not a far fetched possibility to see that happen. But I wasn't here for the likes of The Greatest Showman and Jumanji, and admittedly nearly every musical either underperforming or outright bombing during my time on this forum and more closely looking at the box office has tainted my view. So my opinion is pretty amateurish. As I said earlier in the thread, it's a really great movie and I'm rooting for it to make lots of money.

[4815162342]

39 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

They love our stuff more than we love our stuff 😅

 

Sounds like since we like your place more than you do you should let us run it

[SchumacherFTW]

14 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Sounds like since we like your place more than you do you should let us run it

Or is it that you want to be back under our rule? 

[Super]

I don’t expect Wonka to have that high of a Saturday bump where it’ll do $40M this weekend, but maybe I’m being pessimistic. 

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Sounds like since we like your place more than you do you should let us run it

 

I dont think the US - considering all its internal struggles right now - would want to govern the UK on top of that.

 

7 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Or is it that you want to be back under our rule? 

 

I dont think the UK - considering all its internal struggles right now - would want to govern the US on top of that.

[4815162342]

24 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Or is it that you want to be back under our rule? 

 

The age of the Queen is over. The time of the eagle has come.

[Valonqar]

9 hours ago, DAJK said:

Wonka insane walkups. Very busy all around BC tonight, wouldn’t be surprised with 11M true Friday.

 

Also deadline is very wrong about either Godzilla or Heron (probably Godzilla). It’s 300 tix above Heron at a certain Canadian theater chain today, and considering Heron was far higher than it last weekend, that’s excellent. 

 

After the flops that were Keaton and Vellani walkups, it's so good to see that Chalamet walkups are real. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

As I already said, 

Chalamet has a built in fanbase of females aged 15-34, but it's a rather small one that doesn't translate into big box office revenues. 

He has a long list of flops as the lead post CBYN:

- Beautiful boy

- A rainy day in New York

- The King

- The French dispatch (he wasn't the main lead there, but arguably the face of the promotional tour).

- Bones and All

 

One might argue that these were "auteur" movies, but they still performed worse than their comps (A rainy day in new york was one of Allen's biggest flop,  The French Dispatch was Anderson's biggest misfire so far etc...)

 

Now Wonka has a built-in fanbase (much like Dune) and is a perfect fit for the Christmas season, but I don't think that Chalemet is being a key factor here at the B.O., especially considering that the movie's audience is split at about 50/50 male/female, despite musicals skewing more female usually. That is to say, Timothee is not a real draw at all for the GP despite what the internet loves to think.

Edited December 16, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[CoolioD1]

stuff like The Crown or Downton Abbey generally got more praise and awards from the US compared to the UK. that's the kind of stuff that's for whatever the British version of a weeb is. Anglophiles.

[Johnny Tran]

9 hours ago, Mulder said:

WB's December would be great without Aquaman. 

 

Well this is the last of the "leftovers" from the previous regime so at least it's over now.   

[Arlborn]

10 hours ago, Last Man Standing said:

 

 

Charlie seems optimistic.

Oh man, all my 300M club needs is for Charlie to be right on his upper prediction? I’m liking my chances.

 

 

Also, I was able to get a chance to see Wonka tonight, I can’t wait! Hopefully it’s as good as people are saying.

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm not really surprised that a distinctly British third adaptation of a British literary character isn't really breaking out in America. It's not like the same director's Paddington movies made all that much there either. Today's youth potentially not being familiar with Wonka as a character is another hurdle. Still, a $120M domestic total is not bad at all, especially in a genre that hasn't seen a real hit in years, and its overseas revenue should make up for any American shortcomings. I do think The Colour Purple, a movie with a story far more appealing to Americans, is going to steal its thunder and win December overall in America.

If you look at a simple "average gross by release month" calculation, december films average slightly over 5 with other months averaging slightly over 3 (with OW controlled for). That would imply a gross around 200M as a baseline not 120M but I could easily be missing more specific aspects of film runs.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Oh man, all my 300M club needs is for Charlie to be right on his upper prediction? I’m liking my chances.

 

 

Also, I was able to get a chance to see Wonka tonight, I can’t wait! Hopefully it’s as good as people are saying.

There's no modern precedent for a $300M total from this level of OW gross on this release week, and even $250M is not "likely". A $40M OW would mean a $50M+ first week, and put $200M+ in play (4x), but topping out around ~$225M (interesting...) even with say a Jumanji TNL trajectory

 

Even the best preforming holiday films - including Avatar - converge around 3.3x their OWeek by the end of the 4th (post-New Year's) week (so 1/11 for Wonka), which would be approx $180M in the bank, and so would need to add another $120M after that, off like a $25M week. Following Avatar 2 from last year again gets to just over $200M (depending actual numbers for weekend and weekdays)

 

The necessary caveat is that a lack of competition could lead to an outlier result, but that's more a question of degrees than leaps and bounds outside normal range

[JonathanMB]

The A- Cinemascore is also the same as Burton's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (which still managed a 3.68 multiplier off its massive $56.2M opening) and the two recent Jumanji movies, which opened at a similar time of the month and still managed strong legs. Not sure I'd go as high as $250-300M+ yet, but $200M is very possible. This is the first holiday season since 2011 that we don't have one obvious juggernaut that will make $150-600M more than the second biggest holiday release, so it should be fun to see how much Wonka can benefit from that void.

 

 

Pretty good first day for a movie dealing with an extremely dark subject and is suppose to be very "arty" even by A24 standards. I wonder how far it can get over the next month or two, especially if it continues to do well with awards bodies.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

@Brainbug So I've finally caught up with Monarch, and yeah, episodes 4 and 5 really are that bad. The 50s storyline is gone, and in its place we have more infuriating drama with the Randa kids. Some of the most boring television I've watched in a while. Both Goji and Monarch feel like afterthoughts in a series that was marketed around them. I'd forgive that if the main kids were compelling, but they just aren't. The ladies especially are pretty unlikable and rather one-note.

 

Thankfully Episode 6 is a major turnaround, and might be my favourite so far. The 50s storyline returns in full force and is as great as ever. And even the modern-day portion is far better than in previous episodes, mostly because the annoying kids are an afterthought while Kurt Russell takes charge, and there's just far more suspense and excitement here.

Spoiler

Finally seeing Goji again was the biggest treat of all.

It definitely restored a lot of the interest I had lost. Hopefully this momentum continues to the finish line.

[Cookson]

Definitely taking the kids to Wonka and Migration this holiday season