Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread (12/26-28)

[belblazer]

 

[abracadabra1998]

19 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great end to Universal’s year having two animated features, including an original film and a sequel to a pandemic release, cross $100M. Undoubtedly the winner studio of the year

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, Dreadnought said:

 

I think I will go see this after all since it's obviously aimed at generic Mandys like myself. Thanks for the recommendation. 

I really think you'll enjoy it.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Aftersun certainly did what it was aiming to do, though. $8m in cinemas, its budget was made up of grants. 85 award wins including BIFA’s and BAFTAs and an Oscar nomination. 
 

It clearly found its audience somewhere and it dominated year end lists. Small hits like Aftersun can add up. They don’t need Mainstream Mandy, Generic Joe and their offspring to show up. 

Yeah but only $1.6 million was from the USA+Canada.

[MovieMan89]

9 hours ago, baumer said:

 

It's not that musicals are bad, it's that people were misled by the marketing. If I went to a horror movie assuming in the trailers I was in for a regular normal gorefest or a supernatural fright fest or however it was that they advertise it and then Jason voorhees starts singing and his victims start dancing I'd be livid and I would tell people not to go see the movie no matter how good it was.

 

I think if you're disingenuous to the audience that you're seeking and you're too afraid to market your moving the way it's supposed to be marketed then don't make it that way. Or what they should have done in the first place is let everyone know that these movies are musicals. Then at least people know what they're getting themselves into and they're not shocked when they sit down in theater and see something they werent expecting to see.

 

Completely anecdotal here, I realize this, but my brother and  four nieces saw Wonka and when I asked my brother about it he said it was good but he had no idea it was a musical and if he knew that it was he probably wouldn't have gone.

 

Maybe this is the kind of word of mouth that is spreading right now.

I mean normally I’d agree that misleading marketing is very bad. I just think with the musical situation, so many people are just stubborn. It’s like the anecdote you talked about yourself. He admitted that it was good and then turned around and said he wouldn’t go if he realized it’s a musical. But why? Why is it that big of a deal unless we’re talking Les Mis style where the dialogue is mostly sung. Thats a much different thing though I think.
 

But while some may be irked Wonka is a musical, I think it’s still possible more people like your brother are going than would have if MUSICAL!! was blasted in the marketing. So I’m torn as to whether or not I disagree with kind of misleading marketing about musicals. Think it really depends on the movie itself and how prominent and integral the music is to it. In a case like Wonka, I totally can see why WB would want to just push it as a feel-good family holiday film and leave it at that. 

[Eric Prime]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I thought the worst parts were real life.

I think that's just true of everything.

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean normally I’d agree that misleading marketing is very bad. I just think with the musical situation, so many people are just stubborn. It’s like the anecdote you talked about yourself. He admitted that it was good and then turned around and said he wouldn’t go if he realized it’s a musical. But why? Why is it that big of a deal unless we’re talking Les Mis style where the dialogue is mostly sung. Thats a much different thing though I think.
 

But while some may be irked Wonka is a musical, I think it’s still possible more people like your brother are going than would have if MUSICAL!! was blasted in the marketing. So I’m torn as to whether or not I disagree with kind of misleading marketing about musicals. Think it really depends on the movie itself and how prominent and integral the music is to it. In a case like Wonka, I totally can see why WB would want to just push it as a feel-good family holiday film and leave it at that. 

 

I think if the musical part were better, they'd have hyped it.  But most on these boards have said the music is either a weakness or a non-event for the film...thus, why it got hidden...

[MovieMan89]

Since I will not believe Dune can be a 200 grosser DOM until proven otherwise, I think Wonka may be it between any release from August 2023 to June 2024. Godzilla x Kong, Apes, and Furiosa are wild cards but I doubt it. 300+ is where it really gets interesting since while IO2, DP3, and maybe Beetlejuice I think are likely, I can see scenarios where all miss as well based on reception. I guess you could argue the same for Joker as well. Nothing on the holiday slate is any kind of “lock” for that mark.
 

Very weird to have a whole year where nothing could be a blockbuster if we ended up getting meh films after just coming off an entire half a year where nothing was a blockbuster (even getting some well liked films). 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Dreadnought said:

 

I think I will go see this after all since it's obviously aimed at generic Mandys like myself. Thanks for the recommendation. 

I really enjoyed Anyone But You too  

 

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Yeah but only $1.6 million was from the USA+Canada.

It was never released in more than 97 cinemas there though? 

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Since I will not believe Dune can be a 200 grosser DOM until proven otherwise, I think Wonka may be it between any release from August 2023 to June 2024. Godzilla x Kong, Apes, and Furiosa are wild cards but I doubt it. 300+ is where it really gets interesting since while IO2, DP3, and maybe Beetlejuice I think are likely, I can see scenarios where all miss as well based on reception. I guess you could argue the same for Joker as well. Nothing on the holiday slate is any kind of “lock” for that mark.
 

Very weird to have a whole year where nothing could be a blockbuster if we ended up getting meh films after just coming off an entire half a year where nothing was a blockbuster (even getting some well liked films). 

Huhh. I don`t even have Beetlejuice over 75 mill DOM… 

 

DP3 really has to suck not to hit 300 mill

Most hyped movie for me since Endgame

[emoviefan]

Just now, fmpro said:

Huhh. I don`t even have Beetlejuice over 75 mill DOM… 

 

DP3 really has to suck not to hit 300 mill

Most hyped movie for me since Endgame

Beetlejuice would really have to suck to not do at least 75 and it's going way above that.

[M37]

54 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

300+ is where it really gets interesting since while IO2, DP3, and maybe Beetlejuice I think are likely

As much as there appears to be hype for Bettlejuice, the release date gives me great pause in considering really dreaming of reaching the $300M+ level; there just isn't a whole lot of potential beyond the weekends, which are also limited by the power of the NFL

 

Top Grossing Sept & Oct Releases, all time:

1. Joker $335M

2. IT $327M

3. Gravity $274M

4. The Martian $228M

5. Shang-Chi $224M

6. Star is Born $218M

7. Venom 2 $213M

8. Venom $213M

TIL that the two Venom films finished only $35K apart in total gross!

9. IT Chapter 2 $211M

10. Swift ERAS $179M

 

Only 2 have ever gotten to $300M, and you then get the higher grossing leggy October releases (Gravity, Martian, Star, and including Joker) which were strong enough to play well all the way through Thanksgiving [and for Gravity, through December and awards season]. The only two on that list to open in true September (not Labor Day) were the two IT films, and only 4 films in the last 35 years have even reached $150M (Hotel Transylvania 2 is the 4th) from a September start date.

 

The ceiling is just much lower in the Fall: to even dream of $300M, will take a $90M+ opening with fantastic legs (a la Joker) in one of the weakest months of the year, or blowing up to $110M+ (IT) with average legs. Even a Venom/IT2 $90M OW with decent legs only gets to $210M or so. So either Beetlejuice is redux of IT and just goes absolutely crazy, or its best case is sliding over $200M, not 3

[Noiret Jak]

Final DOM for HGBOSS ? 165/170m$ ?

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

As much as there appears to be hype for Bettlejuice, the release date gives me great pause in considering really dreaming of reaching the $300M+ level; there just isn't a whole lot of potential beyond the weekends, which are also limited by the power of the NFL

 

Top Grossing Sept & Oct Releases, all time:

1. Joker $335M

2. IT $327M

3. Gravity $274M

 

 

It shouldn't. Top 3 have something in common with Beetlejuice - they are all WB movies. WB is the king of the fall. Beetlejuice is gonna smash. Jenna + nostalgia + WB in the fall. Perfect storm incoming.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Valonqar

[YM!]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Since I will not believe Dune can be a 200 grosser DOM until proven otherwise, I think Wonka may be it between any release from August 2023 to June 2024. Godzilla x Kong, Apes, and Furiosa are wild cards but I doubt it. 300+ is where it really gets interesting since while IO2, DP3, and maybe Beetlejuice I think are likely, I can see scenarios where all miss as well based on reception. I guess you could argue the same for Joker as well. Nothing on the holiday slate is any kind of “lock” for that mark.
 

Very weird to have a whole year where nothing could be a blockbuster if we ended up getting meh films after just coming off an entire half a year where nothing was a blockbuster (even getting some well liked films). 

Think it’s quite possible Dune 2, KFP4 or Garfield does a small breakout and get to the 200m range domestically.

[Wandavisionlover0924]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

As much as there appears to be hype for Bettlejuice, the release date gives me great pause in considering really dreaming of reaching the $300M+ level; there just isn't a whole lot of potential beyond the weekends, which are also limited by the power of the NFL

 

Top Grossing Sept & Oct Releases, all time:

1. Joker $335M

2. IT $327M

3. Gravity $274M

4. The Martian $228M

5. Shang-Chi $224M

6. Star is Born $218M

7. Venom 2 $213M

8. Venom $213M

TIL that the two Venom films finished only $35K apart in total gross!

9. IT Chapter 2 $211M

10. Swift ERAS $179M

 

Only 2 have ever gotten to $300M, and you then get the higher grossing leggy October releases (Gravity, Martian, Star, and including Joker) which were strong enough to play well all the way through Thanksgiving [and for Gravity, through December and awards season]. The only two on that list to open in true September (not Labor Day) were the two IT films, and only 4 films in the last 35 years have even reached $150M (Hotel Transylvania 2 is the 4th) from a September start date.

 

The ceiling is just much lower in the Fall: to even dream of $300M, will take a $90M+ opening with fantastic legs (a la Joker) in one of the weakest months of the year, or blowing up to $110M+ (IT) with average legs. Even a Venom/IT2 $90M OW with decent legs only gets to $210M or so. So either Beetlejuice is redux of IT and just goes absolutely crazy, or its best case is sliding over $200M, not 3

I'm shocked the domestic total for IT chapter 2is not significantly less. Didn't the entire total of n umber 1 do like 800M ? Iirc double the sequel

[dallas]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Since I will not believe Dune can be a 200 grosser DOM until proven otherwise, I think Wonka may be it between any release from August 2023 to June 2024. Godzilla x Kong, Apes, and Furiosa are wild cards but I doubt it. 300+ is where it really gets interesting since while IO2, DP3, and maybe Beetlejuice I think are likely, I can see scenarios where all miss as well based on reception. I guess you could argue the same for Joker as well. Nothing on the holiday slate is any kind of “lock” for that mark.
 

Very weird to have a whole year where nothing could be a blockbuster if we ended up getting meh films after just coming off an entire half a year where nothing was a blockbuster (even getting some well liked films). 

It made $100M while simultaneously released on HBO Max. Since its release, it's gained a ton of hype and fans online. To think it won't do $200M domestic is a bit silly IMO, especially since the void for big sci-fi epics hasn't been filled for a while. 

[dallas]

3 hours ago, fmpro said:

Huhh. I don`t even have Beetlejuice over 75 mill DOM… 

I think it will do well. It's a nostalgia sequel that actually has interest behind it, especially with the success of Wednesday and Jenna Ortega being attached. 

[dallas]

I think another movie being slept on is Twisters. The first Twister adjusted with inflation did nearly $500M domestic and the new one has some decent star power behind it. I also think there has been a void for disaster movies that hasn't been filled for a while. I'm not expecting a billion or anything, but I think $500M WW is doable. 

[MovieMan89]

I said in the Twisters thread and I will stand by Twister being the most “wtf” in the entire all time top 100 adjusted list by a mile. I can’t fathom anyone will care about Twisters. 
 

Beetlejuice has plenty of nostalgia on the other hand.