Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[Issac Newton]

Universal/Monkeypaw’s Dev Patel action movie Monkey Man and 20th Century Studios’ First Omen are both projected to do north of $12M, but the former had the edge over the latter on Thursday night in previews, $1.4M to $725K.

[Krissykins]

I wouldn’t be surprised with mid teens for Civil War, single digits for both Abigail & Ungentlemanly Warfare and high teens for Challengers. 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Universal/Monkeypaw’s Dev Patel action movie Monkey Man and 20th Century Studios’ First Omen are both projected to do north of $12M, but the former had the edge over the latter on Thursday night in previews, $1.4M to $725K.

Why would the trades project $12m from $725k lol, a 16.6x from previews?

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

Universal/Monkeypaw’s Dev Patel action movie Monkey Man and 20th Century Studios’ First Omen are both projected to do north of $12M, but the former had the edge over the latter on Thursday night in previews, $1.4M to $725K.

 

Any particular reason they think Omen  is going to do a 16.5+ multi?

 

[cookie]

Monkey Man was acquired by Uni for just $10m, so if it opens to like $15m it should still be in the black before long, and should have a solid life on streaming.

 

I do wish it could’ve done more but if casual moviegoing is a thing of the past like @Cmasterclay and @reddevil19 said then fwiw it’s not a bad result for something like this under current circumstances.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Why would the trades project $12m from $725k lol, a 16.6x from previews?

 

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Any particular reason they think Omen  is going to do a 16.5+ multi?

 

Something tells me that "projection" is just the prediction form before the previews came out...

[CoolioD1]

i was thinking of going to see Monkey Man but hearing mixed things about the shaky cam fight scenes has put me off it. Will try to check out Evil Does Not Exist this week instead.

[JimmyB]

Disappointing numbers but not surprising.  Night Swim is the only horror movie get over 30m domestic.  The First Omen preview number is half of Night Swim.  

[kayumanggi]

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

The fact that Monkey Man overindexed somewhat significantly at MTC1 has me wondering if this was pretty much just gonna be a metro play after all. An opening close to the original John Wick honestly isn’t bad all things considered, but there’s something to be said about no longer being in an era where it would have done more.

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

. I still think theatrical is 100% the way to go, as any box office is better than nothing, with streaming just adding to it rather than being the end goal, but we have to accept that in 2023/2024, the first John Wick would also have been a streaming movie...

 

Well put. Allow me a counter-argument:

 

 

Edited April 5 by Arlborn

[M37]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Again, totally fair enough. But I think we all want some mid-sized adult hits. Which ones am I allowed to be down on if they flop, then? Civil War? Horizon? The ScarJo/Channing space movie? Wolfs? I just want to know whether everything is going to have an excuse or we are just gonna admit these movies don't have it anymore.

They don’t have it, because they’re too close to the kind of content people can watch on the streaming services they already pay for

 

Movies that have something extra - big action/PLF, WOM, whatever - or become a cultural hit before release, are the only ones being successful 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

become a cultural hit before release,

Does this refer to Barbenheimer? Or something else?

[grim22]

2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

I really don't see how it reaches 50 million off a 12 million opening even in a barren April. If there was a chance of a break out, it would have been OW. The reception doesn't seem to be that enthusiastic - to put it another way, it would need to play like the first John Wick. I don't see that happening. Dev is not Keanu and with consumer behaviour being what it is, audiences are less likely to give this kind a movie a try in cinemas.

 

This is the very definition of a streaming movie in a post-pandemic world. There just isn't a hook, a "must-see in cinemas" angle with it. And post-COVID, movies need that hook to succeed theatrically. I still think theatrical is 100% the way to go, as any box office is better than nothing, with streaming just adding to it rather than being the end goal, but we have to accept that in 2023/2024, the first John Wick would also have been a streaming movie...

 

We tend to forget this now after 4 movies and an entire extended universe, but the first John Wick was not exactly a box office phenomenon. It was supposed to be a direct to DVD movie rushed to theaters with a lead time of 1 month because the studio felt they had something special. John Wick and Monkey Man have that in common.

 

The box office was considered "meh" at the time and not enough to even get into most OS territories, but it kept building an audience through word of mouth on home video and became the box office juggernaut it is now.

[vafrow]

It's interesting how the MM performance feels disappointing, but by almost all metrics, it should be considered a win.

 

I think there's still a belief that good reviews should translate to better results. I think we're seeing for a film like this, there's limits.

 

The challenge with this film, even with it likely turning a profit for Universal, is that there's probably not a lot of opportunities to pick up a film like this at this price.

 

They bought it cheap from Netflix. At the $30M Netflix paid, this would be a bigger challenge.

 

 

[reddevil19]

14 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

Well put. Allow me a counter-argument:

 

 

Fair enough, haha. I still can't believe that movie is real - theatrical or streaming, the fact that it starts with phone scammers and goes to the places it goes is insane. But I suppose that in a way goes to my point as well: the insanity of the plot, coupled with decently-shot and edited action scenes, with Statham in the lead, do present enough of a hook for it to do well in January. 

Mind you, I only saw it on streaming a few weeks back. Think it was on NOW TV here in the UK in like late Feb or something?

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

We tend to forget this now after 4 movies and an entire extended universe, but the first John Wick was not exactly a box office phenomenon. It was supposed to be a direct to DVD movie rushed to theaters with a lead time of 1 month because the studio felt they had something special. John Wick and Monkey Man have that in common.

 

The box office was considered "meh" at the time and not enough to even get into most OS territories, but it kept building an audience through word of mouth on home video and became the box office juggernaut it is now.

Sure, 100% - but audiences back then (Jeez, sounds like an age ago) were also far more willing to give that kind of a movie a go and streaming wasn't a threat (or a promise, depending on your point of view) within 30 days...

I am a proponent for theatrical runs even for smaller movies because it gives them the chance to build a bit of buzz before hitting streaming and developing from there (as with John Wick). But the window of opportunity in theatrical for such releases is smaller and smaller imo.

[Krissykins]

Monkey Man was made for $10m, bought by Netflix for $30m and then bought again by Universal for $10m.

 

So I’m assuming the real winners are the producers and the losers are Netflix. 

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Monkey Man was made for $10m, bought by Netflix for $30m and then bought again by Universal for $10m.

 

So I’m assuming the real winners are the producers and the losers are Netflix. 

Not sure but may be Netflix has kept streaming rights and sold just theatrical rights. In that case no losers there.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not sure but may be Netflix has kept streaming rights and sold just theatrical rights. In that case no losers there.

Haven’t seen that mentioned anywhere. So who knows.