IronJimbo Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: 155 18 million -52% mon 18.9 million + 5% tue 15 million -20% wen 16.5 million +10% thur 23 million +40% fri 14 million -40% sat?!?!?! 29.5 million +110% sun?!?!? 31 million + 6% MON? 20.5 million -33% Total after 27th: 341 million I think that is rather reasonable no? It would be around 440 million by Jan 2nd... ehhhh? Did I do something wrong? Yeah! edit: o... christmas day. continue Edited December 20, 2016 by IronJimbo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 (edited) Iron 26 this is a holiday here in Canada and for many Americans as X-mas is on a Sunday. I think it is the biggest box office day of the year in Canada. You can look back 10 years and films have performed even Better than X-mas on the 26th... Edited December 20, 2016 by Lordmandeep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 if 2011 is any guide, Monday the 26th should be slightly larger than Sunday the 25th. All but 2 movies in the Top 15 went up on Monday. The 26th is a Federal Holiday in the US this year (due to X-Mas on the 25th) and almost all big businesses will give their employees the day off as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 55% of 937 is 515. That RO could drop 45-50% from TFA as a spin-off (and without the long long wait/anticipation), is not surprising. That it would not drop more than that is not surprising either going by TFA's good will, RO's marketing, Darth Vader and competition. 500 has always been reasonable for RO if you look at the predictions on the forums. Only off late did things get more conservative...probably after the reshoots saga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langer Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 54 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I appreciate the insights, but I'm not sure I'm being ultra-conservative here. I mean, if the issue is "will R1 reach $420m DOM?", two other action movies, BVS and CA, also opened at over $150m this year, and neither reached that mark. So being in doubt about whether R1 will doesn't seem too far-right to me. You must be new to December boxoffice. You are forgiven. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I am expecting it to follow Game of Shadows's drops over the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 45 minutes ago, bladels said: RO needs to be over $420M by Dec 31st for Disney to reach $3B DOM Something close to that. Disney was at 2,700.5B as of Sunday night, so it needs basically 300MM between December 19-31. Moana and DS should provide about 40MM during that time frame so that means it needs about 260-265 from R1 - which would mean 415-420 total as of Dec 31st. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 17.7M according to Deadline http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-monday-box-office-records-disney-1201873817/ 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 (edited) 17 minutes ago, CJohn said: I am expecting it to follow Game of Shadows's drops over the holidays. CJohn and Tele agree on something? Edited December 20, 2016 by redfirebird2008 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Serious question: why do you guys expect a 20-25% Wed drop when most of you give it a big increase on Tuesday and, aside from Wed being Wed, there will be 3 new wide openers? Isn't a 30%+ drop all but guaranteed? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 3 minutes ago, James said: Serious question: why do you guys expect a 20-25% Wed drop when most of you give it a big increase on Tuesday and, aside from Wed being Wed, there will be 3 new wide openers? Isn't a 30%+ drop all but guaranteed? More kids out of school should help soften the Wednesday drop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 hours ago, SteveJaros said: Just intuitively, $18m seems like a very solid number for Monday, and bodes well for R1's chances to surpass $400m DOM and challenge CA and Dory for DOM film of the year. lololololololol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 (edited) 24 minutes ago, CJohn said: I am expecting it to follow Game of Shadows's drops over the holidays. Just for reference, this is about what it would look like if it would follow the exact same drops, using an 18m Monday (was too lazy to do the math again after seeing the 17.7m figure, and it's not the final one anyway): Mon: 18m -52%, total: 183.1 Tue: 18.9m +4.8%, total: 212 Wed: 15.7m -17%, total: 227.7 Thu: 17.3m +10.8%, total: 245 Fri: 24.7m +42.4%, total: 269.7 Sat: 14.3m -42.3%, total: 284 Sun: 35.2m +146.7%, total: 319.2 ----- this is were it gets a bit crazy perhaps Mon: 39.6m +12.6%, total: 358.8 Tue: 26.8m -32.4%, total: 385.6 Wed: 23.8m -11%, total: 409.4 Thu: 23.2m -2.8%, total: 432.6 Fri: 27.9m +20.5%, total: 460.5 Sat: 23.4m -16.4, total: 483.9 ----- passing ANH Sun: 25m +7%, total: 508.9 ------ passing Finding Dory and the 500m mark Mon: 21.97m -12.3%, total: 530.9 ---- end of holidays passing Dark Knight on Tuesday Probably a bit too optimistic, especially when it comes to the first Sunday/Monday. But up until that point it sounds pretty good. Maybe a slightly different split due to Tuesdays being so important now. Interestingly enough, the Tuesday following the holidays would be bigger than the one TFA had. I guess that won't happen Edited December 20, 2016 by George Parr 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, George Parr said: Just for reference, this is about what it would look like if it would follow the exact same drops, using an 18m Monday (was too lazy to do the math again after seeing the 17.7m figure, and it's not the final one anyway): Mon: 18m -52%, total: 183.1 Tue: 18.9m +4.8%, total: 212 Wed: 15.7m -17%, total: 227.7 Thu: 17.3m +10.8%, total: 245 Fri: 24.7m +42.4%, total: 269.7 Sat: 14.3m -42.3%, total: 284 Sun: 35.2m +146.7%, total: 319.2 ----- this is were it gets a bit crazy perhaps Mon: 39.6m +12.6%, total: 358.8 Tue: 26.8m -32.4%, total: 385.6 Wed: 23.8m -11%, total: 409.4 Thu: 23.2m -2.8%, total: 432.6 Fri: 27.9m +20.5%, total: 460.5 Sat: 23.4m -16.4, total: 483.9 ----- passing ANH Sun: 25m +7%, total: 508.9 ------ passing Finding Dory and the 500m mark Mon: 21.97m -12.3%, total: 530.9 ---- end of holidays passing Dark Knight on Tuesday Probably a bit too optimistic, especially when it comes to the first Sunday/Monday. But up until that point it sounds pretty good. Maybe a slightly different split due to Tuesdays being so important now. Interestingly enough, the Tuesday following the holidays would be bigger than the one TFA had. I guess that won't happen Those numbers would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 The question is, if there even is a right comparison for RO. I doubt, you can compare it to a sub $40m-opener in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 hours ago, AABATTERY said: Should have thrown RDJ somewhere into Rogue One. Maybe push us over the event barrier. The event horizon, if you will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 21 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: More kids out of school should help soften the Wednesday drop. Bigger tuesday increase imo will mean north of 25% drop. Imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 George Parr. Put down the Kool Aid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Thinking the drop this weekend will be in the 60% range. Sunday should be a big rebound day to make up for what's certain to be a rough Saturday-to-Saturday drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 (edited) 43 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: 17.7M according to Deadline http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-monday-box-office-records-disney-1201873817/ out of RamblinRed's link (usually I shorten in a stronger way, but it touches several points someone already brought up) Quote According to early morning industry estimates, Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story grossed $17.7M yesterday, the fourth best for that day of the week in December, and during the post July period. Among the top Mondays of all-time, Force Awakens owns the first two slots — Dec. 21 and 28 — which respectively made $40.1M and $31.3M. The third best Monday in December/post July belongs to Avatar (Dec. 28) with $19.4M. Disney will weigh in with their official figure later this morning. We hear some box office analysts have Rogue One‘s Monday at $18M. With only 37% of K-12 schools off yesterday, along with 76% colleges per ComScore, it was always expected that Rogue One‘s Monday would be off a bit from Sunday, especially with fewer kids on break at this point in time versus a year ago (73% K-12, 87% college). These figures will increase as we get closer to the holiday weekend. Rogue One‘s Monday repped a -53% decline from its $37.67M Sunday. Monday’s take puts the running cume for the Lucasfilm prequel at $172.7M. Many are expecting a dent in this weekend’s three-day business with Christmas Eve falling on a Saturday. However, the B.O. will spike on Christmas Sunday, and into Monday since most people will observe the holiday on that day. On Christmas Eve last year, which fell on a Friday, Force Awakens scored a record $27.4M, which is amazing considering it’s one of the most sluggish days of the year with many theaters closing in the late afternoon. Industry projections at this point in time predict that Rogue One will ease close to -50% in its second weekend from its $155M opening for a FSS of $77.5M. Force Awakens owns the best Christmas weekend three-day ever with $149.2M Edited December 20, 2016 by terrestrial 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
