DMan7 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 A 75M 2nd weekend is still possible. Fri - 25M Sat - 30M Sun - 20M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 (edited) Doubt it I think 70 max unless it pulls off A Spider Man 3 recovery. Anyways it should be over 650 million overseas this weekend. Anyways It would nice to see 400 million because there is only one film that has a good chance this year and that is CF... It has a good chance but it not certain. Considering we had 3 films over 400 million, not having one this year would be a let down. Edited May 10, 2013 by Lordmandeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 It's not as big domestically as some thought when it opened to 174M last weekend. But we kind of knew that beforehand. The domestic market has been mature for decades, unlike a lot of these rapidly growing markets overseas. The first two Iron Man films were already VERY BIG in the domestic market, meaning a big increase in ticket sales would be harder here than other places. Other than the Avengers reaching a bigger audience, the only thing this film has on its side compared to the first two is 3D. But some of the 3D/Avengers bump is probably canceled out by mediocre WOM for IM2. I feel like Thor has the biggest potential for increase because TA showed a lot of people (including me) that it's an interesting character. Before I saw TA, I had zero interest in Thor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pensivepenguin Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 It is somewhat fascinating how well it seems to be holding up overseas in general (ex. likely #1 again for the third time in South Korea this weekend). I mean, it's a very "talky" film and its humor is American but it seems to have translated fine regardless of cultural differences. On the other hand its US run, notwithstanding that opening, has been very mediocre so far. This weekend is the litmus test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 A 75M 2nd weekend is still possible. Fri - 25M Sat - 30M Sun - 20M These numbers are illogical, sorry, no offense. That's about a 250% jump on Friday and then a tiny 25% jump on Saturday. Find me another May blockbuster, in the last 25 years, that has done that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 (edited) It is somewhat fascinating how well it seems to be holding up overseas in general (ex. likely #1 again for the third time in South Korea this weekend). I mean, it's a very "talky" film and its humor is American but it seems to have translated fine regardless of cultural differences. On the other hand its US run, notwithstanding that opening, has been very mediocre so far. This weekend is the litmus test. yeah even in Germany and Japan its heaing for really good totals for a superhero movie, there is not a market where it has flopped at all. Pretty much no denying that TA 2 will become one of the biggest overseas hits ever Edited May 10, 2013 by Lordmandeep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 IM3 is not missing $400m. It should hit it on its own, but if not, no way Disney doesn't give it that extra push after the #2 ow of all time. I figure it finishes around $405-410m, give or take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 It should be around 280m after this weekend. With the long holiday weekend coming up, I don't see it ending below 400m, even with the competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squaremaster316 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 A 75M 2nd weekend is still possible. Fri - 25M Sat - 30M Sun - 20M The weekend is possible, if rather slim, but those dailies are way off. Fri: 21-22M Sat: 30-32M Sun: 20-22M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 These numbers are illogical, sorry, no offense. That's about a 250% jump on Friday and then a tiny 25% jump on Saturday. Find me another May blockbuster, in the last 25 years, that has done that. He is right that $75m is possible, but he is wrong about the jumps. It can nearly get there with SM3 percentages. Fri - $22m (+190%) Sat - $32.27m (+46.7%)Sun - $20.33m (-37%) That would be a $74.6m weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pensivepenguin Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 (edited) yeah even in Germany and Japan its heaing for really good totals for a superhero movie, there is not a market where it has flopped at all. Yeah. In many markets, it earned in its OW what IM2 did in its entire run, or it's just a step behind The Avengers, or even beating The Avengers. If anything, I would've expected it to not do as well overseas compared to the US since the first two films did better domestically. I wouldn't fault anyone for at one point thinking that its OS performance could've been a harbinger of things to come with regards to its US run; I kinda did, cautiously so. But it's clearly looking like it's not. Having said all that, to come close to basically doubling IM2's WW performance is nothing short of astounding. LOL, I guess RDJ touring the world to promote IM3 did wonders. Edited May 10, 2013 by pensivepenguin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMan7 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I just provided rounded out figures but you get the point. This should make 75M 2nd weekend or very close to it. 400M + DOM possible and my 1.3B WW prediction is still on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Yeah. In many markets, it earned in its OW what IM2 did in its entire run, or it's just a step behind The Avengers, or even beating The Avengers. If anything, I would've expected it to not do as well overseas compared to the US since the first two films did better domestically. I wouldn't fault anyone for at one point thinking that its OS performance could've been a harbinger of things to come with regards to its US run; I kinda did, cautiously so. But it's clearly looking like it's not. Having said all that, to come close to basically doubling IM2's WW performance is nothing short of astounding. LOL, I guess RDJ touring the world to promote IM3 did wonders. Even domestically the 3D and increase in domestic gross will likely have IM3 sell as many tickets as IM1 and likely a bit more. So Im3 likely will become the most attended Iron Man movie domestically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Even domestically the 3D and increase in domestic gross will likely have IM3 sell as many tickets as IM1 and likely a bit more. So Im3 likely will become the most attended Iron Man movie domestically. Yep, first Iron Man is around $385-390m adjusted for inflation and 3D. IM3 should finish ahead of that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Still a better Monday-Thursday drop than Avengers. Hope ain't lost yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 (edited) LOL So how much would IM3 have opened had the Avengers not been made? It's weird thinking about right now. I know random. I am anxious for Gatsby's midnight numbers. Edited May 10, 2013 by ECSTASY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 I'm sure it'll get to 400m, I can't believe WOM is so moderate it can't get above a 2.3 multiplier. Unless competition is far bigger than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Considering the 3D share was only 45% I imagine its way less now so its likely selling a lot more tickets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Well above 7m not quite 8m, about ballpark of what we expected really. No alarms. I certainly don't think you'll see many fanboys going to this again and again like they did with The Avengers. I have a friend in from out of state and he hasn't seen IM3, so I am going for my THIRD viewing with him. That'll likely top me out as I admit if he werent' in town for a comic show I can see twice having been sufficient for me. People watched TA 2-5 times, I watched it once but 8 times on Blue Ray Well more like 1 in theaters, twice fully and 6 times the ending battle... I saw Avengers SEVEN times in the theater, only one was 3-D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlipsLikeAPancake Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Optimistic numbers for weekendFriday 18.5Sat 28.5Sun 2067 mill -62% I know Iron Man 2 only had a 135% increase on its first Friday, so I get why you think that a 143% increase would be optimistic...but Spider-Man 3 had a 190% jump. So personally I don't see your weekend numbers as optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
