Transformers: The Last Knight | 6/21/2017 | Big Budget, Weak OW?

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

Even if this drops from TF4, I think it can still do around F8 numbers

 

That would require significant reversal from previous decline. There is barely a buzz and it has to drop. I think comparable movie would be TASM2 to TASM kind of drop. TASM had dropped quite a bit from SM3.

[baumer]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Considering last one grossed 245m, are you saying its going to stay flat. The buzz is well below last one.

 

Even if it grosses 201 million dollars that's closer to 250 than it is to 150.

[a2k]

28 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

Even if this drops from TF4, I think it can still do around F8 numbers

 

Do you mean WW? I think F8 numbers (1.2b) would be nearly impossible.

At max can see,

225 D + 400 Ch + 450 OS-Ch = 1075 WW [125 away from F8. Unless in China TF5 is set to give Mermaid a run for it's money, difficult to make up 125.]

At min,

175 D + 300 Ch + 350 OS-Ch = 825 WW

Splitting the diff,

200 D + 350 Ch + 400 OS-Ch = 950 WW

 

I think the summer global crown is gonna be a contest between TF5 and DM3.

[SM:HC next in the line, followed by POTC5 and GOTG2.]

 

Edit: btw, isn't 'SM:HC' far less annoying than 'SMH'...Hate that acronym.

Edited May 18, 2017 by a2knet

[Captain Craig]

After some disappointment with TF:4 I'm actually rooting for this to do well. 

It seems like a downward slide is inevitable though but I don't expect the buzz to kick up for a few weeks yet. 

It's target audience is still in school and several other Blockbusters will be fighting for ad slots so why get lost in the shuffle. 

[cookie]

TF4 went down OS minus China. Unless China breaks out big I don't see it hitting $1b.

[Jandrew]

I got a new trailer with Alien that I hadnt seen before. I thought it was King Arthur at first. Has it not been posted? It actually wasnt bad.

[John Marston]

On 5/18/2017 at 0:50 PM, cookie said:

TF4 went down OS minus China. Unless China breaks out big I don't see it hitting $1b.

 

 

Latin America was big as well

[Noodlebug]

I don't think this will drop too terribly. Despite the decline of this franchise, I think there's still a floor for these. Somewhere between 200M and TF4's 245M is where I see it landing, although 180-190M isn't completely out of the question, either.

[Jessie]

I see a 70m OW woth a 180m finish. 

[Jessie]

6 hours ago, Noodlebug said:

I don't think this will drop too terribly. Despite the decline of this franchise, I think there's still a floor for these. Somewhere between 200M and TF4's 245M is where I see it landing, although 180-190M isn't completely out of the question, either.

 

I used to think that too until spiderman made under 200m (or there abouts)

[vc2002]

On 2017/5/19 at 0:50 AM, cookie said:

TF4 went down OS minus China. Unless China breaks out big I don't see it hitting $1b.

 

I think TF5 will drop from 4 in China. 4 had Chinese actors and actresses and locations in China. And also I think Chinese are getting a little tired of TF like the rest of world already did.

Edited May 21, 2017 by vc2002

[Mockingjay Raphael]

I've been claiming this since last year. This is going to have a IA4 > IA5 kind of drop OS. The fourth one already decreased everywhere but China and LA, China will stay flat at best, while LA is dropping hard thanks to terrible ER. I can see it missing $900m WW, let alone $1B. And if Paramount really start releasing a new movie every single year, I can see this franchise dying before 2019.

[baumer]

8 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

I think TF5 will drop from 4 in China. 4 had Chinese actors and actresses and locations in China. And also I think Chinese are getting a little tired of TF like the rest of world already did.

 

What makes you think they are getting tired of it?

[vc2002]

5 hours ago, baumer said:

 

What makes you think they are getting tired of it?

 

I think people get tired of a franchise like this at some point, and I think this one could be it.

 

 

[drdungbeetle]

Paramount Pictures won't be alive long enough for them to put out 3 more Transformers movies, let alone 14. I'm REALLY not feeling a 1 bil worldwide from this thing-very little buzz and doesn't look like it has new sellable characters. If Bay had built the bots as characters rather than just excuses as VFX things could've gone differently, but it's been 10 years and Marvel has shown what happens when you bother developing for character rather than just PEW PEW PEW.

[The Futurist]

I love my Pew Pew Pew alright...

[kowhite]

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

I love my Pew Pew Pew alright...

 

Quoted for TRUTH.

 

Still, this is making less.

[John Rambo]

On 5/18/2017 at 4:12 PM, a2knet said:

 

180-190 could happen.

Wonder if China could do 2x Dom (say, 175/350). That would be insane. Needs a club.

DOM yes. China might breakout big like TF4 but (Doubt its content) i dunno why im expecting a decrease everywhere including china over the previous one. 10-20% drop in china not getting good vibe over this. I might be wrong as well

[Captain H]

2 hours ago, John Rambo said:

DOM yes. China might breakout big like TF4 but (Doubt its content) i dunno why im expecting a decrease everywhere including china over the previous one. 10-20% drop in china not getting good vibe over this. I might be wrong as well

That's actually a very realistic prediction imo. I'm thinking $200 million (A bit of fudging to get there) DOM, $850 milllion WW  with China coming in at $280 million (-20% from TF4). Maybe a bit lower, around low 800s/high 700s WW.

[a2k]

180 Dom + 310 Ch + 370 OS-Ch = 860 WW

 

Apart from DM3 I find it tough to see 900+ movies this summer.

(Thinking 850 for HOMEC and 825 for POTC5)

 

Edited May 22, 2017 by a2knet