The Disney Thread | Iger will be with us until 2026

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yep Marvel has so many sub franchises going on that they almost need at least 4 spots per year to keep them coming. I don't think they'll want to wait more than 4 years for sequels. 

 

With Disney+ though alot of the potential new heroes that may have been candidates for new movies have been taken up now so will be interesting to see which is the next hero to get a first standalone film (not counting reboots like Blade, F4 or X-Men). 

Edited September 11, 2021 by Darth Lehnsherr

[exomassey]

I can’t wait for the X-Men’s arrival in the MCU. I need them now! lol

[charlie Jatinder]

Why is Dr Strange 2 releasing in March end, just 41 days away from Thor 4. I thought it may be Good Friday, but no. Better release would have been Mid Feb.

[AJG]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Why is Dr Strange 2 releasing in March end, just 41 days away from Thor 4. I thought it may be Good Friday, but no. Better release would have been Mid Feb.

Because Thor’s release will help promote the D+ release of Strange 2.

 

It’s all connected.

[exomassey]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why is Dr Strange 2 releasing in March end, just 41 days away from Thor 4. I thought it may be Good Friday, but no. Better release would have been Mid Feb.

Yeah it’s ridiculous.

 

COVID really messed up the schedule and they can’t move it forward because the movie probably needs that time in post.

[Lion Roar]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why is Dr Strange 2 releasing in March end, just 41 days away from Thor 4. I thought it may be Good Friday, but no. Better release would have been Mid Feb.

Because The Batman is releasing on March 5 need at least three weeks in between. Good Friday next year is Apr 15. 

[Mojoguy]

I find the 45 day window that Quiet Place 2 had before going to streaming to be best compromise.

 

Movies get some time in theaters, then after a few weeks studios can use the movies to push their streaming services.

[wildphantom]

21 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Pretty much explained in my post above Home Entertainment is not what it used to be, there is likely still physical collectors that will still buy no matter when it is released (even with a Disney+ option) but Home Entertainment makes up less than 20% of the studio revenue for Disney and is not growing unlike SVOD.

 

If Home Entertainment was still bringing in around 40% of revenue (much higher than theatrical at the time) like it was in 2010-2011 where it was around $2.5B of the ~$6.5B then sure they should window that but in 2021 that is big diminishing returns. 

less than 20% is hardly chump change. 
 

Like I said, home video revenue is not going to take anything away from streaming revenue. 
 

Disney’s properties have fans. Its Marvel fans will be much more likely to buy Shang Chi if it’s the only way they can see it, before it goes on Disney+. It’s extra money.  Why would they throw away so much money. 
You might see under 20% of revenue as worth losing overnight, but you can bet Disney doesn’t. 
 

Take me for example. I’m a big MCU fan and Disney+ subscriber. I will pay for Shang Chi digital/physical, having already seen it in theaters. Why would they not want that digital/physical money from me by putting it on tv immediately? 
 

Shifting digital/physical copies of their movies is going to take zero revenue away from Disney+. Only add to it. 

[Jamiem]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

less than 20% is hardly chump change. 

As I said the problem is that it is shrinking though, if it was growing or flat that would fine but it will continue to shrink in significance over time. 

 

Here look at 2010 vs. 2019 

 

2010 Studio Revenue - $6.70B

• Theatrical - $2.05B
• Home Entertainment - $2.67B
• SVOD, TV and Other - $1.96B

2010 Operating Income - $693m

 

2019 Studio Revenue - $11.13B

• Theatrical - $4.73B
• Home Entertainment - $1.73B
• SVOD, TV and Other - $4.67B

2019 Operating income - $2.68B

 

Can see that Theatrical and SVOD have both grown a bunch whereas Home Entertainment has fallen away. 

 

12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Like I said, home video revenue is not going to take anything away from streaming revenue. 

I agree I'm not calling for them too stop offering physical media as there is clearly a group of people who are still purchasing that, but I think a lot of those physical collectors will still pay even if it is free on Disney+

14 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

You might see under 20% of revenue as worth losing overnight, but you can bet Disney doesn’t. 

Once again not arguing this and they will likely get a boost from SVOD so that 20% will fall further anyway, there is little point in trying to save Home Entertainment if it is already in a secular decline just make what you can out of it particularly if it is bring in only a fraction of their growth revenue driver that they can drive further with a shorter window in SVOD. 

 

If you want to look at it this way, say Home Entertainment shrinks to $1B from $1.5B but SVOD grows from $6B to $7B in 2022 that is better for Disney Studio than Home Entertainment and SVOD staying flat. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

The good news is it seems the launch of Disney had a very little impact on Home Entertainment in terms of the revenue it generates whilst SVOD has skyrocketed

With the acquisiton of Fox being integrated in 2019, does it make looing at years around it a bit hard ? (like looking at warner around At&t shift) ? Or they kept the financing report separated the 2 first year ? Maybe the destruction of home ent would have been more apparement without a giant acquisition bump if their sales became merged post acquisition.

 

Liongates from 2018 to 2021 fiscal year's in the motion picture division it went like this:

 

2018:

Within the Motion Pictures segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 15.4%;

• Home Entertainment, 42.5%;

• Television, 15.3%;

• International, 25.1%; and

• Motion Pictures-Other, 1.7%

 

2019:

Within the Motion Picture segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 14.7%;

• Home Entertainment, 40.4%;

• Television, 18.7%;

• International, 23.3%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 2.8%.

 

2020:

• Theatrical, 21.3%;

• Home Entertainment, 42.2%;

• Television, 14.8%;

• International, 20.4%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 1.3%.

 

2021:

Within the Motion Picture segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 1.1%;

• Home Entertainment, 55.6%;

• Television, 21.3%;

• International, 20.1%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 1.9%.

 

 

The home entertainment split between packaged and not went like this for feature film:

 

2017: $247M packaged vs $192m digital

2018: $213m packaged vs $206m digital

2019: $108m packaged vs $157m digital

2020: $155m packaged vs $276m digital

2021:  $67m packaged vs $241m digital

 

Packaged media went from being 33% of the domestic motion picture business for Liongates has recently than the 2018 fiscal year to (if we exclude others) to being only 15.5% in a year without any theatrical revenues in the 2021 fiscal year and 20% the year before.

 

[Jamiem]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

With the acquisiton of Fox being integrated in 2019, does it make looing at years around it a bit hard ? (like looking at warner around At&t shift) ? Or they kept the financing report separated the 2 first year ? Maybe the destruction of home ent would have been more apparement without a giant acquisition bump if their sales became merged post acquisition.

That is a good point, the 20th Century acquisition would have bumped all of the different aspects of Disney Studio, unfortunately they have changed how they report Studio (it is now included with licensing of TV content) from this year so won't be able to see major changes over time as easily. 

 

Now even with the bump for Home Entertainment from 20th Century it paints an even bleaker picture as Home Entertainment was around $2B from 2014-2016 before they got 20th Century backlog and newer titles. 2016 was the last time Home Entertainment was above $2B for Disney. 

[Jamiem]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

2018:

Within the Motion Pictures segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 15.4%;

• Home Entertainment, 42.5%;

• Television, 15.3%;

• International, 25.1%; and

• Motion Pictures-Other, 1.7%

 

2019:

Within the Motion Picture segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 14.7%;

• Home Entertainment, 40.4%;

• Television, 18.7%;

• International, 23.3%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 2.8%.

 

2020:

• Theatrical, 21.3%;

• Home Entertainment, 42.2%;

• Television, 14.8%;

• International, 20.4%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 1.3%.

 

2021:

Within the Motion Picture segment, revenues were generated from the following:

• Theatrical, 1.1%;

• Home Entertainment, 55.6%;

• Television, 21.3%;

• International, 20.1%;

and • Motion Picture-Other, 1.9%.

 

 

The home entertainment split between packaged and not went like this for feature film:

 

2017: $247M packaged vs $192m digital

2018: $213m packaged vs $206m digital

2019: $108m packaged vs $157m digital

2020: $155m packaged vs $276m digital

2021:  $67m packaged vs $241m digital

 

Packaged media went from being 33% of the domestic motion picture business for Liongates has recently than the 2018 fiscal year to (if we exclude others) to being only 15.5% in a year without any theatrical revenues in the 2021 fiscal year and 20% the year before.

 

Obviously a much smaller studio but those Home Entertainment % figures are massive but in absolute $ only around $300-400m is still well behind Disney and likely all the other major studios. Maybe it is more of a sign that Lionsgate theatrically have had very little success in the last 4-5 years or so.

[filmlover]

Had a strong feeling they were bound and determined to have Encanto on the streaming service however possible over the holidays. Theaters must be bummed that they're sure to lose out on potential business over the Christmas/New Year's stretch since it'll be for free, but hey, better than seeing no business at all (Mulan, Soul, Luca).

[eddyxx]

8 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

 

Predictions for the Untitled fare (outside of the animated stuff, because who knows what's going on there)...

 

April 8, 2022 - Next Goal Wins

June 10 - See How They Run

August 12 - The Menu

September 23 - Predator 5

December 23 - Rosaline

 

March 10, 2023 - Shrunk

July 14 - Lion King Prequel

July 28 - Fantastic Four

August 11 - Haunted Mansion

September 15 - Planet of the Apes 4

October 6 - Blade

October 20 - ??? (maybe Haunted Mansion replaces the 20th Century film here)

November 10 - Captain America 4

 

February 16, 2024 - Deadpool 3

March 22 - Snow White

May 3 - The Mutants

May 24 - Children of Blood and Bone or Free Guy 2 (probs the latter)

July 5 - Cruella 2

July 26 - Shang-Chi 2

November 8 - Eternals 2

 

December 19, 2025 - Taika's Star Wars

 

December 17, 2027 - Papa Feige's Star Wars

Avatar 5, 19 years after the original...4 billion worldwide o/u?

[EmpireCity]

The irony of Disney for decades being the place where they had a strategy that involved a "vault" and they would horde their movies and hide them away only to release them every 5-10 years and make a huge deal of it is now the company that can't wait to charge you $7 and give you everything as free as soon as possible is funny to me.  

[AJG]

44 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The irony of Disney for decades being the place where they had a strategy that involved a "vault" and they would horde their movies and hide them away only to release them every 5-10 years and make a huge deal of it is now the company that can't wait to charge you $7 and give you everything as free as soon as possible is funny to me.  

 

That Disney Vault shit was insanity. I remember them releasing the Lion King on Blu Ray for £20+ and this was in the year 2012.

I ended up paying £4 for it in the Blockbuster closing down sale a couple weeks later.

[HouseOfTheSun]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

he has literally nothing to do with them going 170+

 

There hasn't been any big surge due to whatever he pushed to digital streaming. 

But I’m guessing he caused a worldwide pandemic that pressed his hand into make tough, but correct decisions for the future of the company….right? 
 

 

[Barnack]

20 hours ago, Jamiem said:

Obviously a much smaller studio but those Home Entertainment % figures are massive but in absolute $ only around $300-400m is still well behind Disney and likely all the other major studios. Maybe it is more of a sign that Lionsgate theatrically have had very little success in the last 4-5 years or so.

It a studio that get home ent distribution deal of many title that they did not distribute in theater themselve, also it is a studio that has a bigger part of their business being domestic than the more international reaching one, a market that is quite distinct on how big home entertainment revenues are by theatrical $.

[Eric Duncan]

 

[AJG]

14 minutes ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

 

I feel as if these lawsuits happen every 4 or 5 years.