A Star is Born | 5th October, 2018 | Warner Bros | Bradley Cooper directing, Lady Gaga cast as lead.

[Zakiyyah6]

So judging by tracking, which is low balling the film like it did CRA and The Meg, A Star is Born should open with 35-40mil. Maybe 45mil if all goes right. Dramas don't need to open with 50-60mil because they aren't frontloaded comic book movies. Venom will open huge but will die if it's as awful as it looks.

Edited September 13, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[The Futurist]

Could bomb hard OS, seems very US centric.

[AJG]

7 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Could bomb hard OS, seems very US centric.

 

Should do well in U.K. and Europe. South America and Asia are beyond me.

[KeepItU25071906]

9 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Should do well in U.K. and Europe. 

 

Korea and Japan also should big.

[Scubasteve716]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

Could bomb hard OS, seems very US centric.

What does bomb hard mean?

[AJG]

46 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

What does bomb hard mean?

[lilmac]

Warner Bros is having a great 2nd half of the year. This will break out. 

 

$35m/$117m

[TombRaider]

3 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Could bomb hard OS, seems very US centric.

Nah

 

I can see it doing SPL numbers

 

Domestic:	$132,092,958	55.9%
+ Foreign:	$104,319,495	44.1%
= Worldwide:	$236,412,453

[lilmac]

4 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Could bomb hard OS, seems very US centric.

Won’t matter. It’ll make enough here to get close to break even or a small profit. 

[AndyK]

7 hours ago, AJG said:

 

Should do well in U.K. and Europe. South America and Asia are beyond me.

Hard to tell, its Gaga but its country music and UK seems allergic to country.

[FantasticBeasts]

This will not do well OS. It will only do well in UK,Australia and potentially Japan?!. But who cares it's gonna be hella profitable either way.

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[Barnack]

19 hours ago, lilmac said:

Won’t matter. It’ll make enough here to get close to break even or a small profit. 

Considering the low budget rumors, should be in profits from that domestic alone.

 

Example of domestic revenues for some performance:

 

Box office / movie / domestic revenues

 

191.72m / 22 jump street / 201.96m

138.45m / 21 Jump Street / 184.722m

133.67m / Grown up 2 / 162.903m

107.1m / Captain Philips / 150.05m

 

And that is not considering how much DBO can help and make for nice International TV contract deal.

 

If the budget is 30m and get a 45m domestic release, it can work from domestic alone with a good profit margin no problem.

 

I also see domestic heavy but I can see like @TombRaider, still a 40+% intl happening it got good reception in international festival at least, has some star wattage to at least get distributed a bit everywhere. A la SLP/American Hustle that had Football or American in the title. In this case the studio (WB) is distributing it worldwide instead of being acquisitions also to help.

Edited September 14, 2018 by Barnack

[Ezen Baklattan]

           

 

The GaGa army is coming.

 

$50m opening.

$225m+ total.

$500m+ worldwide.

 

 

[Krissykins]

On 9/14/2018 at 12:55 AM, The Futurist said:

Could bomb hard OS, seems very US centric.

I think it’ll be big here in the UK

[lilmac]

8 hours ago, Barnack said:

Considering the low budget rumors, should be in profits from that domestic alone.

 

Example of domestic revenues for some performance:

 

Box office / movie / domestic revenues

 

191.72m / 22 jump street / 201.96m

138.45m / 21 Jump Street / 184.722m

133.67m / Grown up 2 / 162.903m

107.1m / Captain Philips / 150.05m

 

And that is not considering how much DBO can help and make for nice International TV contract deal.

 

If the budget is 30m and get a 45m domestic release, it can work from domestic alone with a good profit margin no problem.

 

I also see domestic heavy but I can see like @TombRaider, still a 40+% intl happening it got good reception in international festival at least, has some star wattage to at least get distributed a bit everywhere. A la SLP/American Hustle that had Football or American in the title. In this case the studio (WB) is distributing it worldwide instead of being acquisitions also to help.

Thanks as always. My response was more as a reaction to his phrasing which suggested that ‘bombing hard in OS’ was a bad thing. Perfectly ok to have a film just do well in its domestic market, as long as it churns a profit. 

[La Binoche]

Wasnt the talentless Beyonce supposed to be in this? The thought of her writing a song

[Krissykins]

On 9/14/2018 at 8:17 AM, AndyK said:

Hard to tell, its Gaga but its country music and UK seems allergic to country.

 

We do hate country music. 

 

But we like Lady Gaga lol.

 

 

Advertising started here two weeks ago. 

[EliasChristensen]

In my opinion it simply depends on the whole soundtrack and if it has some surefire hits. 

 

GaGa is too much of a pro to let this flop. She will market the hell out of this and "The Greatest Showman" showed us what legs a musical can have it the soundtrack is uber successful. 

 

So I say "The Greatest Showman" is the goal for this. 

[Valonqar]

This is going to smash Showman's boxoffice total in 3-4 weeks. Showman never had even 1/4 of ASIB buzz. It opened low but got good holiday WOM and became yet another movie helped by TLJ underperformance past its OW.