RED SPARROW | 03.02.18 | Fox | Jennifer Lawrence

[BXT]

21 minutes ago, Jeriosnal said:

That's the problem though, she hasn't really.  O. Russell is easily the greatest director she's worked with and, lo and behold, he's the one most responsible for her career success.  Aronofsky has always been erratic and was coming off of the lousy Noah.  Ross and F. Lawrence are just journeymen capable of nothing great.  Tyldum is a hack, despite IG getting Oscar noms.  etc.  If J-Law actually got the Spielberg movie happening and a QT film, her career would look very different right now to the average person despite her very limited talent.  

How many good directors have Meryl Streep, Angelina Jolie, Julia Roberts or any other A-list actresses have worked with ? We keep having this discussion every few months but the fact is that good directors make movies with mostly male lead actors. Why should JLaw go for supporting roles just so she can work with them ?

[trifle]

16 hours ago, Alli said:

 Rebecca as the lead in a spy movie would kill all competition!!

 

I have not watched red Sparrow yet, but sorry, Lawrence can never be as good as Rebecca was in Rogue Nation

 

That's more Atomic Blonde - ish though.  This is supposed to be much grittier.

4 hours ago, XO21 said:

She had two underperformers and two flops which are mother! and Red Sparrow (being realistic here, with $70m budget ain’t go anywhere near a profit). I don’t count Apocalypse.

 

She’s 27 and received so many accolades (with 4 oscar nominations in her bag) and her next streak of movies are all indies, she gonna be alright lmao.

She'll be fine.  I think Red Sparrow will as well, because of overseas tickets, at minimum.  Elsewhere critics seem to like it a lot more.

2 hours ago, HesAPooka said:

She's worked with good directors and yet every time a new movie comes out the complaint is she doesn't suit the role. Other than Winters Bone, Hunger Games, and Silver Lining she's stuck out in her films in a negative way. Not a good thing.

Seriously?  She's been almost universally praised in every one, even where the film wasn't praised.  The RT consensus for Red Sparrow, for example, is:

 

Quote

Critics Consensus: Red Sparrow's tense, character-driven story -- elevated by outstanding work from Jennifer Lawrence -- help this topical spy thriller overcome its somewhat uneven narrative.

 

[StevenG]

31 minutes ago, BXT said:

This is a ridiculous post. Angelina Jolie was one of the biggest draws until she stopped acting in movies even though she never did any romcoms. Melissa McCarthy never did any romcoms and is a bigger draw domestically than pretty much any male actor other than maybe The Rock.

Tomb Raider's posts tend to be...odd.

[TombRaider]

1 hour ago, BXT said:

This is a ridiculous post. Angelina Jolie was one of the biggest draws until she stopped acting in movies even though she never did any romcoms. Melissa McCarthy never did any romcoms and is a bigger draw domestically than pretty much any male actor other than maybe The Rock.

wow 2 exceptions (and angelina was a box office bomb before pitt), what i meant is that in the late 90- 00s there were a lot of female bo draws that had big hits with rom coms like meg ryan, julia roberts, kate hudson, katherine heigl, reese, jennifer aniston, maybe even jlo...

 

 

[Ozymandias]

Hollywood seriously needs to stop trying to have their actors put on Russian accents in movies, it just doesn't work.  Its such a distinctive accent and its been parodied so much that when you see famous faces genuinely trying to sound like real Russians its just comes across comically awkward and distracting as fuck.  

[ddddeeee]

I'm late to the party, but J-Law is getting some seriously good ink for this.

 

Shame X-Men is coming to spoil this interesting career turn.

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

I'm late to the party, but J-Law is getting some seriously good ink for this.

 

Shame X-Men is coming to spoil this interesting career turn.

Is it?  

[marveldcfox]

16 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

I'm late to the party, but J-Law is getting some seriously good ink for this.

 

Shame X-Men is coming to spoil this interesting career turn.

Well she keeps coming back for the money.

[Krissykins]

Net production budget $69m.

 

Ouch, that’ll take some big grosses to recoup for a film like this. 

[Alli]

46 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Net production budget $69m.

 

Ouch, that’ll take some big grosses to recoup for a film like this. 

I'm sure there will be no problem making back it budget. I believe it will do better than many here think

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

I'm sure there will be no problem making back it budget. I believe it will do better than many here think

But $180m+ worldwide? I don’t see it. 

[Alli]

Just now, Krissykins said:

But $180m+ worldwide? I don’t see it. 

Why 180M if the budget is 69M?  Is it not supposed to be double the budget for break even?

[JB33]

Seeing this in T minus 9 and a half hours. Really looking forward to it!

[a2k]

58 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Net production budget $69m.

 

Ouch, that’ll take some big grosses to recoup for a film like this. 

apt!

[Barnack]

Just now, Krissykins said:

But $180m+ worldwide? I don’t see it. 

Missing some market (China and probably Russia) make it not easy.

 

With a 35 dbo/65 intl split, need to do around 60-65m domestic to achieve that number (target easy to miss if it open around 18m, considering the anti-crowd pleasing nature of the movie according to the reviews).

 

Those Hungary production nice price tag give it a chance too (that what saved Inferno not so long ago).

 

 

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, Alli said:

Why 180M if the budget is 69M?  Is it not supposed to be double the budget for break even?

2.5x is a good indicator. gives 173 with 69 prod budget. i think red sparrow has a good chance at 200 ww.

 

edit:

it's still fresh on RT. Not that RT is a great indicator but I feel if critics tend to be harsher than the GA for movies like these. To them it's oscar bait type grown up movie while GA wants an entertainer. Wouldn't rule out low 20s ow and 3x multi. If this does 60+ dom, it has great shot at 2.5x the prod budget globally.

Edited March 1, 2018 by a2knet

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, Alli said:

Why 180M if the budget is 69M?  Is it not supposed to be double the budget for break even?

 

There is not really any hard rules apply to all, from all the world release movie by Sony from 2006-2014, doubling your budget + participation bonus at the break even point was almost certain to make you break even, but it could be much lower than that (some movie break even at 1.6x time their budget) or much higher.

 

It depend of were the money come from (market wise, different return by average bo), depend of the talent/producer deal, depend of the market that were pre-sold, year of release (movie released during the 2006-2010 dvd bubble peak could break even making 1.45 time their budget at the box office), world P&A expense relative to the budget, success on Home video (Den of Thieves/Jason Statham type of movie expect to make a larger proportion of their overall revenues after theatrical than the 3D must see in theater affair for example), etc...

 

And from the studio point of view, the co-financier deal they had change that point quite a bit also (they often take bigger risk than the studio that pay itself first more, a bit like in that Blade Runner example).

 

No really a strict rules and the rules of thumbs to use are still more complex than that, but yes many movie break even around double the budget, some take much more, when they have 90s actor/director used too and still getting first dollar gross point.

 

Using 22 Jump street for a recent 70m net budget movie break even point example (budget up at 76m with the participation bonus at that point), in the Sony leaked accounting they expected to break even at 121m WW on 22 Jump Street, 1.75 time it's budget, 1.58 times it's budget + bonus, but with a very domestic heavy split of 74mdbo/47m intl), but I am sure I could find a 70m movie needing 150m with a different expected split/bonus structure.

 

Each movie is a bit of is own story.

 

For Allied (other recent spy movie with an expected 70m net budget), Sony thought that he needed to do: $167 WWBO ($67 DBO / $100M IBO) for the movie to make sense for them, with a $100M DBO / $130M IBO wished target.

 

 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Barnack

[Alli]

12 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Missing some market (China and probably Russia) make it not easy.

 

With a 35 dbo/65 intl split, need to do around 60-65m domestic to achieve that number (target easy to miss if it open around 18m, considering the anti-crowd pleasing nature of the movie according to the reviews).

 

Those Hungary production nice price tag give it a chance too (that what saved Inferno not so long ago).

 

 

It will not be released in China?

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Alli said:

It will not be released in China?

If it does, it'll be a heavily butchered version. Fox is releasing The Shape of Water there with significant edits, as was the case with Logan and Alien last year

Edited March 1, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

If it does, it'll be a heavily butchered version. Fox is releasing The Shape of Water there with significant edits, as was the case with Logan and Alien last year

 

Yea, in China, you can boil dogs live, but you can't show a movie where a woman has sex with a fish.