Christmas Eve Awakens: SW 27.5-28.5m (Rth) So this is how Avatar dies, with thunderous applause

[Jessie]

On 07/12/2015, 14:49:07, Jessie said:

50m midnights

70m fri

82m Sat

61m Sun           263m OW

40m mon

38m tue

37m wed

24m thu

51m fri

53m sat

36m sun          140 m 2nd weekend

28m mon

27m tue

27m wed

18m thu

37m fri

37m sat

23m sun          97m 3rd weekend 739m total

 

final total - 950m ish

 

......................... surely fucking not

 

 Going by this 140m will be the absolute lowest it makes next weekend. Dafuq, can't believe I actually underpredicted this 

[POTUS 2020]

I have been more optimistic than the average here.  I was certain it would hold better than avatar on 24th and maybe -25% at that.and hoping it would be over 30m. Mite be a little short. Movies skewing older hold better and I'm sure some of the older crowd that avoided the weekend and finally had a day off took it in.

 

I may be falling below the average this weekend however. I don't see as many shows listed as the first this weekend. Nor as many sellouts. With 5 new openers they wont be able to add more show on other screens. the hateful 8 will have some large screens.  I think it starts to deviate from avatar a bit. Avatar was on just half the screens and had a snow storm OW. With the demand building it was an easier feat to increase like many movies do. The demand is still there but with 48m tix sold the the fatigue will start to show at some point. I doubt it can match any of the days from last weekend with all the extra shows and hype and hold avatars holding pattern. I still think it gets over 150m but not the 170-190m some are saying like Bom and many here. 

Xmas is a big day but not for the early shows.

50m 

58m

51m 

159m

Still a fantastic number

 

[CJohn]

This will slow down over the weekend. It has to. Logic says so.

 

170M-190M 2nd weekend? Nah.

[baumer]

159 mill shows fatigue?

Yep. People must be getting tired of Star Wars already. I'm just playing around prisoners. I understand what you are saying but that number is just an unspeakable ungodly massively ridiculously huge number for an opening weekend let alone a second weekend lol

[SteveJaros]

3 hours ago, Baumer Fett said:

That's not showing, that's throwing out arbitrary numbers.  I can do that too.  It'll make 300 mill over the weekend, here's how:

 

Friday:  90

Sat: 110

Sun 100

 

See how that works?

 

When I say show us how it only gets to 120, I mean show me a model to which you base it on.  So far it has been following Avatar to a tee, so if you say after 7 days it will not follow Avatar, then what film will it follow?

 

So tell me what model you are using to have it make 120?

 

 

I thought my "model" was implicit in the numbers I posted, and your failure to see it doesn't make it "arbitrary", but OK. Some around here have said things like "forget what you've learned" and "there are no precedents for this" and the like, and that's basically what I believe. Existing models and past precedents haven't really fit, and I don't think they will fit going forward. So my "model" is that the audience for the film has been very front-loaded in the first week, perhaps at an unprecedented level, so the next weekend's drop-off will fit what I described above.

 

Basically, the big bulk of the audience rushed to see it before Christmas. IMO. We shall see. 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by SteveJaros

[Noctis]

That number is fucking crazy. 

[LinksterAC]

26 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I have been more optimistic than the average here.  I was certain it would hold better than avatar on 24th and maybe -25% at that.and hoping it would be over 30m. Mite be a little short. Movies skewing older hold better and I'm sure some of the older crowd that avoided the weekend and finally had a day off took it in.

 

I may be falling below the average this weekend however. I don't see as many shows listed as the first this weekend. Nor as many sellouts. With 5 new openers they wont be able to add more show on other screens. the hateful 8 will have some large screens.  I think it starts to deviate from avatar a bit. Avatar was on just half the screens and had a snow storm OW. With the demand building it was an easier feat to increase like many movies do. The demand is still there but with 48m tix sold the the fatigue will start to show at some point. I doubt it can match any of the days from last weekend with all the extra shows and hype and hold avatars holding pattern. I still think it gets over 150m but not the 170-190m some are saying like Bom and many here. 

Xmas is a big day but not for the early shows.

50m 

58m

51m 

159m

Still a fantastic number

 

 

On gut instinct, I think I'm right there with you.  

 

The one thing I can't reconcile is why it hasn't shown any signs of burning off demand during the week.  Indicators like its Sunday to Wednesday drop are essentially equal to Avatar's.  It's Sunday to Christmas Eve Thursday drop is even stronger than Avatar's, and Avatar was more of an adult-skewing film than SW7.  

 

That Christmas Eve hold suggests an explosion of business today.  It's actually the best indicator to me so far that the this movie has sustained demand from the past weekend.  The Wednesday increase is also another sign that this movie is perhaps doing business at some theoretical market limit for each one of these days.  

 

I think $160M is a reasonable number for this weekend, but with this movie, we can't really predict anything until credible evidence starts rolling in later today. 

Edited December 25, 2015 by LinksterAC

[baumer]

So stevejaros.... you just pulled numbers out of your rear end. Just like I did for it getting to 300. It has already shown that it is anything but front-loaded. And it has been following avatars trajectory. So unless you have some kind of other film to compare this to and use those numbers then perhaps the best thing to do is just stay quiet and let the big boys do the extrapolations.

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, Baumer Fett said:

And do you think Friday has a chance to top 50 mill?

I hope so. It would mark my first crazy club that is actually a sucess.

[Ethan Hunt]

That number is damn crazy....

[baumer]

Sorry stevejaros.... I didn't mean to be a dick there. I should not have told you to be quiet my bad. There is a model that it has been following though and that is avatar. When we say that you must unlearn what you have learned and all that stuff it's just a quote Star Wars and have fun. But it definitely has been following a model very consistently and because of that we can with relative ease predict the next 10 days. If it had not been following avatar very closely then maybe you could say that we can just post arbitrary predictions. But I don't think there are predictions anymore it's more of an extrapolation based on historical data.

[Clef Ment]

21 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

I thought my "model" was implicit in the numbers I posted, and your failure to see it doesn't make it "arbitrary", but OK. Some around here have said things like "forget what you've learned" and "there are no precedents for this" and the like, and that's basically what I believe. Existing models and past precedents haven't really fit, and I don't think they will fit going forward. So my "model" is that the audience for the film has been very front-loaded in the first week, perhaps at an unprecedented level, so the next weekend's drop-off will fit what I described above.

 

Basically, the big bulk of the audience rushed to see it before Christmas. IMO. We shall see. 

 

 

 

How could it be frontloaded? Look at the weekdays numbers.

 

On an other note, I am more excited for the second week-end numbers than for the OW. 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Clef Ment

[LinksterAC]

8 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

So stevejaros.... you just pulled numbers out of your rear end. Just like I did for it getting to 300. It has already shown that it is anything but front-loaded. And it has been following avatars trajectory. So unless you have some kind of other film to compare this to and use those numbers then perhaps the best thing to do is just stay quiet and let the big boys do the extrapolations.

 

I think the mental stop we all have is that, if it continues to hold and drop like Avatar, this weekend--TFA's SECOND weekend--would basically be the fifth best OPENING weekend of all time.  

 

It's hard to say that and feel like you aren't joking. 

[RamblinRed]

Merry Christmas to everyone hope everyone has a great day!

I was going to be thrilled with anything over 25. That number is nuts. It's almost as much as JW's second Friday and Avatar's second Saturday.

So after 7 days TFA has made 51% of Avatar's total run and 60% of JW's total run.

 

I keep revising my conservative number up. On Tuesday I had it just below 140. After Wed it was just below 150. Now I have a hard time coming up with a number below 150 unless it simply starts to slow down considerably. Even if you assume a little smaller jump (say 90%) and a relatively flat Saturday (assuming that the high pre-sales for Xmas burn off some demand) and then maybe a 15% drop on a holiday Sunday, you still get right at 150. I'm wishing for a 160+ weekend so it will top 550 in 10 days. But we will see. 

 

[Lordmandeep]

Look I think 900 million is assured, 1 billion depends on this weekend.

 

However I was looking at presales and perhaps today will be boosted more by walk ups but I dont see how it can do 60 million today.

 

I think the goal is 50 million, like it looks busier then any of the weekdays here but not 50% busier.

 

However Canada would be skewed as I think Boxing day  i the is bigger movie watching day. With Monday a Holiday here this should play well over 4-days. 

 

It also can be the film is playing in so many showtimes, that its the 2nd weekend, it does not have to be full to be like huge numbers. 

[terrestrial]

14 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

 

On gut instinct, I think I'm right there with you.  

 

The one thing I can't reconcile is why it hasn't shown any signs of burning off demand during the week.  Indicators like its Sunday to Wednesday drop are essentially equal to Avatar's.  It's Sunday to Christmas Eve Thursday drop is even stronger than Avatar's, and Avatar was more of an adult-skewing film than SW7.  

 

That Christmas Eve hold suggests an explosion of business today.  It's actually the best indicator to me so far that the this movie has sustained demand from the past weekend.  The Wednesday increase is also another sign that this movie is perhaps doing business at some theoretical market limit for each one of these days.  

 

I think $160M is a reasonable number for this weekend, but with this movie, we can't really predict anything until credible evidence starts rolling in later today. 

 

A 3rd time repeat post (not meant as flooding')

 

BO.com had added yesterday this to their (part-) release of the actuals:

Please note that some studios are closed for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Grosses for Wednesday, Dec. 23 are a mix of estimates and actuals.

 

For some studios I's be not surprised to learn the actuals only at Monday

[Rman823]

After 3 family gatherings today it will be nice to sit down and watch the original films for the first time. Hoping to have them finished by Sunday before my 2nd viewing of TFA with some family members . 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Rman823

[FTF]

3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Look I think 900 million is assured, 1 billion depends on this weekend.

 

However I was looking at presales and perhaps today will be boosted more by walk ups but I dont see how it can do 60 million today.

 

I think the goal is 50 million, like it looks busier then any of the weekdays here but not 50% busier.

 

However Canada would be skewed as I think Boxing day  i the is bigger movie watching day. With Monday a Holiday here this should play well over 4-days. 

 

It also can be the film is playing in so many showtimes, that its the 2nd weekend, it does not have to be full to be like huge numbers. 

 

Yes, I'll be happy with any # for today that starts with a 5.

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by FTF

[FilmBuff]

Just like to say I predicted 850 million, and that was way fucking under what this movie will make.

[Infernus]

So, now that we almost have the numbers for all its first 7 days and since we all like ranking things so much, how would you guys rank its first 7 days in their incredibleness keeping in mind the complete context (for example that thursday was christmas eve or that wednesday actually increased from tuesday)? People may include explanations too. Here's my rankings -

 

1. Monday 

2. Wednesday

3. Friday

4. Sunday 

5. Thursday

6. Saturday and Tuesday tied for me

Edited December 25, 2015 by Infernus