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WrathOfHan

Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Magnificent 7 35M | Storks 21.8M | Sully 13.8M | Bridget Jones 4.5M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Solid opening for Magnificent Seven. Not sure much more could've been expected.

 

WB better hope Storks takes advantage of the barren kid market until Trolls.

 

Open Season had a 3.7 multiplier so a similar if not higher multi would get it to $80-81m a 4 multi which is unlikely would get to $87m.

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Webslinger Box Office Gold

Webslinger

Posted
Posted

The Magnificent Seven is off to a reasonably solid start. It's admittedly at the low end of where I expected it to land heading into the weekend (35-40), but I never really got the big $45+ million predictions. Irrespective of the star power at hand, the western is such an antiquated genre that it's a tough sell for today's audiences (even Cowboys & Aliens, which had the added sci-fi appeal, a great cast, advertising that began eight months in advance, and a plum summer release date, opened in about the same range). Word of mouth seems to be kind, so it should ultimately top $100 million domestically.

 

Storks was softer than I expected it would be, but it's still off to an okay start. It could have broken out further amid the dearth of competition for families, but it should still be able to translate the lack of competition in the coming weeks into a very leggy run.

 

Sully is still performing quite well, even with losing IMAX and sharing audience overlap with Magnificent Seven. 

 

I'm a little surprised that Bridget Jones's Baby dropped so hard. Sure, it's a sequel, but the audience I saw it with last Friday gobbled it up. I guess most viewers outside of the core fan base really just aren't interested in catching up with these characters after such a long absence from the screen (probably due in no small part to Zellweger's years-long hiatus and the dozen-year gap with the poorly received first sequel). On the other hand, I'm not at all surprised to see Blair Witch's audience dry up in the second go-around.

 

Don't Breathe has had excellent legs for its genre. It's pretty astonishing to consider that it could push close to $90 million off of a $26 million opening weekend.

 

Suicide Squad has also had surprisingly great late legs. With how grim things were looking after its second weekend hold, it's impressive that the film is going to land fairly close to Batman v. Superman's domestic total.

 

I'm kinda surprised that Disney didn't just go wide right away with The Queen of Katwe. It's going to be a small performer no matter what (despite the number of TV ads they've run), so platforming it for a week is an odd decision.

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Arlborn Global Phenomenon

Arlborn

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, La Binoche said:

 

They're yet to truly prove their power. Even Passengers is based on a combo of their drawing power.

 

We do know that Pratt added nothing to the typical Denzel opening this weekend, contrary to what many were expecting (some prognosticators were saying $60m+ lololol). 

I see the excuses of the no-drawing-power crowd if that movie does really well are already prepared.

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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

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Posted

Having finally watched Revenant last night I wouldn't put it in the Western category myself but I could see why some might. Generally speaking most "westerns" are post civil war / pre WW1 and have more to do with the settling of the West etc. Unless you consider having Indians in it enough to be a western then the Revenant would count. 

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, La Binoche said:
 1 minute ago

MAGNIFICENT SEVEN a "hit" @ $35M? Ummm ... not on a $100 budget and a shaky int'l prospects. Break-even with downstream upside mebbe

 

Denzel Washington movies are always expensive to make, he always gets $20m a film, and they usually make between $90 and $120m domestically. Studios must make a ton of money in all kinds of other mediums when it comes to Denzel Washington movies. How else to explain the budgets and his salary 4 Films that don't make that much domestically?

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Maxmoser3 Blockbuster

Maxmoser3

Posted
Posted

Magnificent Seven shoots up to the top spot on not so Magnifcent September weekend.                            Overall the top 12 was at $95.8 million which was down nearly   30% from last year and quiet for this timeframe.                                       Magnificent Seven shoots up with an estimated $35 million, that debut is one of the top live-action debuts for the month of September. It is also one of Denzel's bigger debuts and director Antione Fuqua's best debut on-par with The Equalizer 2 years ago. It is also the second best debut for a western behind Cowboys & Aliens($36.3 million). Also just like Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington has been an actor over 60 years old to bring in a film with Fences and Equalizer 2 coming out Christmas later this year and next fall Denzel isn't going anywhere! With alright word of mouth, Magnificent Seven should hold up just fine. Look for Magnificent Seven to end its run around $105 million domestic total.             Warner Bros Animated film Storks underperformed with an estimated $21.8 million that debut is well below September family films like Hotel Transylvania, and other comparable titles. The film didnt have the greatest marketing campaign and no star power or interesting concept to trigger families to the theater. Overall Storks should hold up fine since there isn't any family completion until November, so look for Storks to make north of $60 million domestic.                                     Sully has shown some strong holding power this weekend(even with Magnificent Seven), and with the crowded adult oriented marketplace coming up in October. Sully has grossed solid numbers overall, and make over $120 million domestic.                                             Bridget Jones's Baby had an alright hold but nothing that amazing considering it's decent word of mouth. Overseas should still save Bridget Jones but still be the lowest grossing of the franchise. Look for Bridget Jones to make $25 million domestic.                                             Snowden had a so-so drop with adult competition. Snowden should make around $25 million domestic as well.                                               Blair Witch crashed with a drop near 60%, and with bad word of mouth Blair Witch should vanish quickly and make around $20 million domestic.                             Don't Breathe still holding up strong, and should make $90 million domestic. Suicide Squad holding up solid and should make $325 million. Kubo and When The Bough Breaks saw steeper declines this weekend. When The Bough Breaks should make $30 million. Kubo should make $50 million.

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Maxmoser3 Blockbuster

Maxmoser3

Posted
Posted

September 2016 is on track to be the least-attended since 2009. That's harsh it's doing just a hair better than 2014 but still a very boring month. Hopefully October could shape things up with Girl On The Train, The Accountant, and Inferno among others in a crowded slate. 

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, cannastop said:

This is a big year for animated features. Where do you think it ranks?

Good question. I never saw Kung Fu Panda 3, Ratchet and Clank, or Wild Life, and while Sausage Party and Jungle Book were both excellent, theyre both so different (in wildly different ways) from everything else I wont include them either.

 

Of the rest, Id rank them:

 

1. Kubo and the Two Strings

2. Zootopia

3. Storks

4. Angry Birds

5. Secret Life of Pets

6. Finding Dory

7. Ice Age

 

Which isnt intended as a slight to anything on the list (except Ice Age which was bad, but at least not genuinely awful in an Alvin and the Chipmunks kind of way). In an average summer, SLOP or Dory probably would have been in the best 2 or 3.

 

Imo, 1 and 2 were very close, then a gap, then 3, then a small gap, then 4, 5, and 6 were very close, then a gigantic gap down to 7.

 

Edited by Wrath
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