Terminator: Dark Fate | Nov 1 2019 | Estimated to lose 122.6M

[Deuce66]

17 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I'm seeing no marketing effort from Paramount, it's like they're not even trying.

 

I've seen ZERO tv ads for this movie in Canada or even on US Networks. Not a good sign at all. I saw no shortage of Gemini Man ads for at least a month prior to its release. 

 

 

 

 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

I saw an ad during an NBA game last week. Opening night I think (Raptors vs Pelicans). 

[HalloFromGermany]

Looks like the studio spends some money for promotion:

https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/terminator-dark-fate-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203386704/?yptr=yahoo

[Zakiyyah6]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

It's decent. 

I agree that the critical reception is decent but enough to persuade leery reviewers? I don't know about that.

Edited October 30, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[sfran43]

 

[reddevil19]

Jesus Christ, that would be pathetic for China. I was kidding earlier, but now I'm starting to think Dark Phoenix over Dark Fate is very possible.

[Deuce66]

20 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Jesus Christ, that would be pathetic for China. I was kidding earlier, but now I'm starting to think Dark Phoenix over Dark Fate is very possible.

Opening in China for DP was $31.8 million with a final of $59.3. I'm extremely negative towards Dark Fate based on these early results, with that massive production/promo budget this movie is going to bleed "RED" in massive quantities and might be in the running for $$ bomb of the year. 

 

 

 

 

[John Marston]

38 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Might not make 300m WW then

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Might not make 300m WW then

Given its performance in European markets and now signs for Asia, especially China...yeah, it would need an over-performance domestically (relative to what latest entries have done) and I don't even see how the mid-to-high-40's being touted is possible, to even give it a shot at 100M, let alone more.

 

Men in Black International / Dark Phoenix are the targets to beat to avoid being the disaster of the year.

[John Marston]

54 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Given its performance in European markets and now signs for Asia, especially China...yeah, it would need an over-performance domestically (relative to what latest entries have done) and I don't even see how the mid-to-high-40's being touted is possible, to even give it a shot at 100M, let alone more.

 

Men in Black International / Dark Phoenix are the targets to beat to avoid being the disaster of the year.

 

 

it costs more than MIB International so automatically it will be worse than that. It's between this and Dark Phoenix

[cdsacken]

Holy crap Dark Phoenix and this will combine for over 300 million in net losses. Incredible.

[Napoleon]

It didn't even open yet. Excellent word of mouth could turn things around for this movie.

[cdsacken]

Just now, Napoleon said:

It didn't even open yet. Excellent word of mouth could turn things around for this movie.

Flop is guaranteed. How big a flop is the question. It's losing shows fast because it's sales are Gemini man bad.

[John2015]

The final version was co-edited and approved by James Cameron.  (The rough cut was  2 hr 50 minutes)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Terminator/comments/dp71kj/james_cameron_deleted_42_minutes_from_tim_millers/

 

So after the film flops, Cameron can't distance himself from the failure. 

 

(Anyway, Cameron will get back the franchise rights in 2020; the rights will be useless then....)

[Chucky]

I was wrong about this movie, I thought it would be panned, surprised to see a fairly positive critic response 

[John2015]

3 minutes ago, Chucky said:

I was wrong about this movie, I thought it would be panned, surprised to see a fairly positive critic response 

 

After 100 reviews, the film still have fresh tomatoes at RT.    I guess it is safe to say that the film won't get rotten at RT.

 

But still, after Terminator Genisys , many people will not give this franchise a chance anymore, no matter how good the reviews are.

Edited October 30, 2019 by John2015

[a2k]

Dom and China can still do ~200 combined can't it? China is unpredictable to say the least and LH's return will mean something more dom IMO. Her absence meant less OS it seems and OS gross shouldn't be used to judge Dom like with Genisys.

 

90-110 Dom and China each wouldn't surprise me.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Dom and China can still do ~200 combined can't it? China is unpredictable to say the least and LH's return will mean something more dom IMO. Her absence meant less OS it seems and OS gross shouldn't be used to judge Dom like with Genisys.

 

90-110 Dom and China each wouldn't surprise me.

More like 110 mil total from both. 50 mil from China, 60 mil DOM.

[John2015]

The film is also doing very bad at US pre-sales.  (Although there are some hints that the film may do better walk up business. )

Edited October 30, 2019 by John2015

[Chucky]

18 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

It didn't even open yet. Excellent word of mouth could turn things around for this movie.

The problem with Terminator is the same problem with the Alien and Predator franchises. They were big hits a different generation ago, but not big enough to properly transcend the generations imo. Prometheus had the right idea by linking itself in whilst doing it's own thing and it worked to an extend from a marketing point until WOM got around.

 

With terminator they keep trying to make sequels or heavy tie ins and I dont think enough people now are interested in watching the older stories progress. It didnt work with Superman Returns, hasnt worked with predator/alien and it won't work with this. They should have a reboot, start a fresh concept with new ideas and ditch the past, ditch Arnie and show a different take. it's worked for other franchises of a similar era, just look at MOS and ST09