Terminator: Dark Fate | Nov 1 2019 | Estimated to lose 122.6M

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

More like 110 mil total from both. 50 mil from China, 60 mil DOM.

 

6 minutes ago, John2015 said:

The film is also doing very bad at US pre-sales.  (Although there are some hints that the film may do better walk up business. )

October 10 tracking has it at 40-45 ow (Deadline, Forbes)

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, a2k said:

 

October 10 tracking has it at 40-45 ow (Deadline, Forbes)

I have a hard time seeing it reach 40-45 mil OW, especially with Box office tracking thread pointing to much lower numbers (with not even 2 mil previews possible). I think it'll pull off a Dark Phoenix or Maleficent 2 and open considerably lower.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Deadline posted an article a couple days back that downgraded it to 35-40M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-maleficent-2-black-and-blue-countdown-halloween-box-office-weekend-1202769043/

[John2015]

2 minutes ago, Chucky said:

The problem with Terminator is the same problem with the Alien and Predator franchises. They were big hits a different generation ago, but not big enough to properly transcend the generations imo. Prometheus had the right idea by linking itself in whilst doing it's own thing and it worked to an extend from a marketing point until WOM got around.

 

With terminator they keep trying to make sequels or heavy tie ins and I dont think enough people now are interested in watching the older stories progress. It didnt work with Superman Returns, hasnt worked with predator/alien and it won't work with this. They should have a reboot, start a fresh concept with new ideas and ditch the past, ditch Arnie and show a different take. it's worked for other franchises of a similar era, just look at MOS and ST09

 

James Cameron will own the franchise rights, and I guess he wouldn't accept "fresh concept".   

 

In fact, James Cameron worked very hard to prevent Tim Miller from making "Dark Fate" as his own movie.

 

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/2483284/james-cameron-compares-working-on-alita-battle-angel-with-terminator-dark-fate

[filmlover]

The fact nearly $200M was spent on making this (according to Variety) after how badly the last two performed should go to show that Hollywood loves lighting money on fire. Those China numbers along with how poorly it's looking to do elsewhere are especially discouraging considering this was probably only made for the overseas money (Genisys only turned a profit thanks to them).

[Zakiyyah6]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact nearly $200M was spent on making this (according to Variety) after how badly the last two performed should go to show that Hollywood loves lighting money on fire. Those China numbers along with how poorly it's looking to do elsewhere are especially discouraging considering this was probably only made for the overseas money (Genisys only turned a profit thanks to them).

Unfortunately Genisys was bad and tainted the franchise even more than it already was.

[Celedhring]

4 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I've seen ZERO tv ads for this movie in Canada or even on US Networks. Not a good sign at all. I saw no shortage of Gemini Man ads for at least a month prior to its release. 

 

 

 

 

Over here it looks like it's getting dumped. I wasn't even sure wether it opened day and date with the US given how little marketing was out there! I just rechecked cinema listings because it doesn't really feel like this move is opening tomorrow.

[cdsacken]

35 minutes ago, a2k said:

Dom and China can still do ~200 combined can't it? China is unpredictable to say the least and LH's return will mean something more dom IMO. Her absence meant less OS it seems and OS gross shouldn't be used to judge Dom like with Genisys.

 

90-110 Dom and China each wouldn't surprise me.

China is looking at 60 if lucky. 

[John Marston]

I thought this would at least make 100m in China. Just amazing 

[cdsacken]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact nearly $200M was spent on making this (according to Variety) after how badly the last two performed should go to show that Hollywood loves lighting money on fire. Those China numbers along with how poorly it's looking to do elsewhere are especially discouraging considering this was probably only made for the overseas money (Genisys only turned a profit thanks to them).

Lol loves lighting money on fire what a visual. People running around gleefully around a fire with millions of dollars bills in a bonfire.

[cdsacken]

22 minutes ago, Eric Connor said:

Deadline posted an article a couple days back that downgraded it to 35-40M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-maleficent-2-black-and-blue-countdown-halloween-box-office-weekend-1202769043/

I cant see how that's possible if it does 2 million previews. Not even close.

[keysersoze123]

I would not extrapolate China with Wanda starting PS so late. It looks like starting with > 100K shows and I am thinking PS should hit 30m by end of Thursday as real action will happen today. With late PS 5x PS multi for 150m OD and 450-500m OW is possible(all number in rmb). Then its all on WOM and I am not predicting that in china. It could be anywhere from 800-1B yuan. @POTUS 2020 please confirm if I am way off.

[POTUS 2020]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would not extrapolate China with Wanda starting PS so late. It looks like starting with > 100K shows and I am thinking PS should hit 30m by end of Thursday as real action will happen today. With late PS 5x PS multi for 150m OD and 450-500m OW is possible(all number in rmb). Then its all on WOM and I am not predicting that in china. It could be anywhere from 800-1B yuan. @POTUS 2020 please confirm if I am way off.

with such a late start and no promotion we will see something completely different.

PS still not taking off.  I assume a large PSm.  I think 7 is the highest we have ever seen

[keysersoze123]

Just now, POTUS 2020 said:

with such a late start and no promotion we will see something completely different.

PS still not taking off.  I assume a large PSm.  I think 7 is the highest we have ever seen

So something like 20m PS and 140m OD. I feel PS for last day will behave like it was already at 20m PS and so it can double that number. We will see how things go today(its already Thursday in Middle Kingdom).

[Maxmoser3]

44 minutes ago, Eric Connor said:

Deadline posted an article a couple days back that downgraded it to 35-40M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-maleficent-2-black-and-blue-countdown-halloween-box-office-weekend-1202769043/

It really needs $40 million+ to be okay in it’s opening weekend. 

[Ozymandias]

47 minutes ago, John2015 said:

 

James Cameron will own the franchise rights, and I guess he wouldn't accept "fresh concept".   

 

In fact, James Cameron worked very hard to prevent Tim Miller from making "Dark Fate" as his own movie.

 

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/2483284/james-cameron-compares-working-on-alita-battle-angel-with-terminator-dark-fate

😂

[Zakiyyah6]

32 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

It really needs $40 million+ to be okay in it’s opening weekend. 

I think more like 50mil. That budget is huge.

[WittyUsername]

Since this movie is distributed by Fox overseas, I guess Disney will have to add it to the list of bombs that they’ve had since they acquired the company. 

[John Marston]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-dark-fate-markets-a-terminator-franchise-reset-1251181

 

 

 

doesn’t sound like they are skimping on marketing 

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think more like 50mil. That budget is huge.

For a film that cost as much as Dark Fate , 40 Million is NOT an "OK" opening.even 50 million is borderline.