The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[stripe]

There's nothing really comparable to Mary Poppins Returns, so many analysts might be really wrong pronosticating that opening.

 

I have a feeling there is a huge hidden audience ready to embrace it once it opens. Walk-ups could be surprising. Just like they were with first JW. Nostalgia, perfect release date, whole family espectacle, Oscars buzz... And already great presales. Watch out!!

[narniadis]

If we dug back to the 2012 threads, the same thing happend with discount Tuesdays then as well. Course the Tuesdays have only gotten more pronounced since then, but its crazy to think that 10 years ago they were barely a thing and by 2010 they were practically everywhere. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Hollywood Reporter:

 

Aquaman: $110M 5-day

Mary Poppins Returns: $55M 5-day, $70M 7-day

Bumblebee: $40M 5-day

Second Act: $9M 5-day

Welcome to Marwen: $7-9M 5-day

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-aquaman-mary-poppins-returns-lead-1170308

There’s no way MPR will make $ 55M 5-day and then make just $ 15M on december 24 and 25.

 

And even those $ 55M 5-day seems kinda low to me.. presales are relatively close to Aquaman, why a family movie will have much worse walk-ups than a superhero movie?

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

There’s no way MPR will make $ 55M 5-day and then make just $ 15M on december 24 and 25.

 

And even those $ 55M 5-day seems kinda low to me.. presales are relatively close to Aquaman, why a family movie will have much worse walk-ups than a superhero movie?

Xmas Eve is a low BO day...and Christmas usually matches opening Saturday for a movie...So, it's possible it could be $5M Dec 24 and $10M Dec 25 (and then $11M on each day from Dec 26-28, which actually all tend to be higher than a Xmas weekday)..,.I would think an opening 5 day of $55M would be more in line with a $20M 2 day period ($7 and $13M) to see $55M in the 5 day, but who knows?  This movie will draw a more interesting demo than most:)...

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

55 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

There’s no way MPR will make $ 55M 5-day and then make just $ 15M on december 24 and 25.

 

And even those $ 55M 5-day seems kinda low to me.. presales are relatively close to Aquaman, why a family movie will have much worse walk-ups than a superhero movie?

The presales are most likely for Christmas Day when stuff is filling up fast (shows that day for the movies currently on sale are nearly sold out). Tracking isn’t gonna be much of help other than an idea for wherever movies will land because business is much more spread out at this time of year. Aquaman is the only movie that’s gonna be especially frontloaded but that comes with being a major comic book movie.

Edited December 18, 2018 by filmlover

[lorddemaxus]

Is there like any chance at all that Aquaman opens with 70 mil+ and has a 5x multiplier or higher?

[Blankments]

On 12/11/2018 at 11:19 AM, Telemachos said:

 

Go on a Friday night. 

Tele don't fuck up my sleep schedule more

[fabiopazzo2]

MT

1# Spider-Man 16.1%

2# The Mule  13.5%

3# Aquaman 10.8%

4# Mary Poppins Returns 10%

5# Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 5.3%

[Daenys]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-mary-poppins-returns-jennifer-lopez-christmas-box-office-1202522277/

 

Quote

Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns from Rob Marshall, the sequel to the 1964 musical from Chicago and Into the Woods director Rob Marshall and starring Emily Blunt and Lin-Manuel Miranda, is starting off gradually tonight in 125 Dolby auditoriums and will expand to 4,000 theaters tomorrow including 250 PLFs with an eye on a $35M weekend and a first week (Wednesday through Tuesday) of what many believe is closer to $75M. Currently Mary Poppins Returns is 78% fresh on RT. The thinking is that the movie will pull in most women, 8-80, and not really stand in the way of Aquaman‘s momentum. The sequel cost an estimated $130M.

 

Despite that early start, it’s Warner Bros./DC highly anticipated Aquaman which is taking the ‘must see’ spot of the season in the wake of Star Wars owning the year-end period for the last three years. Previews start Thursday at 5PM and will play in 3,300 locations backed with the strength of Imax. Projections are wild. Right now 3-day is at $65M-$70M. Yes, that’s lower than Justice League‘s FSS of $93.8M, but the thinking is that through five days, Aquaman will make more than its predecessor, $120M to $111.9M, over the Friday to Tuesday stretch. A few are saying $150M, but that’s a truly lofty number. Fandango reports that Aquaman is surging ahead of Wonder Woman in pre-sales, but again, that doesn’t mean folks will show up on the weekend, rather Christmas. Wonder Woman opened to $103.2M. Aquaman currently has a 69% Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes. The pic cost $200M net, and has grossed north of $266.4M at the overseas box office with China repping 71% of that figure. Amazon Prime previews on Saturday night stateside earned $2.9M for the DC pic. Aquaman, is technically ashore and off to a great start.

 

Already strong in the mix is Sony’s $90M animated production Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse which made $2.7M yesterday taking its four-day take to $38.1M. With a three-day of $35.3M, it’s the biggest animated weekend opener for December beating Illumination/Universal’s Sing from two years ago. Three-day is looking at around $23M, down about 35%. The pic could easily stand at $65M before Christmas.

Paramount’s Bumblebee is a wild card with the best reviews of any Transformers at 97% fresh. It’s a complete reboot of the franchise sans Michael Bay in the director’s chair with an E.T. like story starring around Hailee Steinfeld’s teen character. Give the weight of the franchise product in the marketplace, projections are low for this $102M production (before P&A) with a $20M-$25M three-day at 3,500 theaters and a Friday-Tuesday take between $35M-$40M. Previews starts at 5PM on Thursday. Around 325 theaters have already generated around $500K for Bumblebee from a Dec. 8 evening preview.

 

On the low side, there’s STX’s Jennifer Lopez romantic comedy Second Act and Universal’s Robert Zemeckis’ $40M-priced fantasy drama Welcome to Marwen. While Second Act will likely file between $10M-$13M over five-days, the pic was really cheap at $15.7M before P&A. STX is targeting women 25+, and the film which carries a 57% RT score was never expected to be No. 1 in a the brand-heavy Christmas market. African American and Hispanic demos could push this title to overindex. Marwen will be an upset for Universal after last weekend’s blow with Mortal Engines which is set to lose north of $105M. Projections are in the high single digits over five days for this film which many Oscar prognosticators have passed over. No RT score yet.

 

On Christmas Day, Sony has the PG-13 Will Ferrell & John C. Reilly period bawdy comedy Holmes & Watson which could see an opening day’s take of $5M. The pic cost around $42M.  Annapurna’s Vice from Oscar-winning filmmaker Adam McKay which stars an invisible Oscar winner Christian Bale as former Vice President Dick Cheney is launching at around 2,350 with an eye on an opening day of $4M off an RT of 67% fresh.

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Daenys

[VTKajin]

I think the 3-day tracking should be closer to $80M if the 5-day is that high. Also, the outlier projection of $150M 5-day screams WW scenario. I wouldn't count it out. We could be looking at a $90-100M 3-day if that rings true. 

[Lucasmessi12]

$120m 5 day would be good for Aquaman,(almost) guarantees $ 250m + with a chance of up to $ 300m.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Lucasmessi12

[WrathOfHan]

Those would be strong ODs for Holmes and Vice. They could play out like this:

 

Holmes:

 

5M

3.5M (-30%)

3.3M (-5%)

 

4M (+20%)

4.2M (+5%)

3.4M (-20%)

11.6M 3 day, 23.4M Total

 

Vice:

 

4M
3M (-25%)

3M (-)

 

3.6M (+20%)

4M (+10%)

3.3M (-18%)

10.9M 3 day, 20.9M Total

 

Given their budgets, they're going to need decent money OS and good legs. We'll see what happens.

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Poppins Dolby Fan Event: 72/236

 

This only gained about 16 seats from yesterday morning. Given that tickets are $22 per person and A List isn't available, this is decent for a family movie. Tomorrow is looking insane anyways 

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Those would be strong ODs for Holmes and Vice. They could play out like this:

 

Holmes:

 

5M

3.5M (-30%)

3.3M (-5%)

 

4M (+20%)

4.2M (+5%)

3.4M (-20%)

11.6M 3 day, 23.4M Total

 

Vice:

 

4M
3M (-25%)

3M (-)

 

3.6M (+20%)

4M (+10%)

3.3M (-18%)

10.9M 3 day, 20.9M Total

 

Given their budgets, they're going to need decent money OS and good legs. We'll see what happens.

 

Vice’s legs will likely depend on if it gets Oscar nods or not

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Vice’s legs will likely depend on if it gets Oscar nods or not

Bale and Adams are still safe for noms (and the latter is probably winning), so it’ll be fine in that department.

[The Panda]

33 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Bale and Adams are still safe for noms (and the latter is probably winning), so it’ll be fine in that department.

Maybe, but the Picture nomination seems to be the big thing that carries Awards legs over just acting noms.

[TMP]

Aquaman 1 billie possible?

[Manny G]

49 minutes ago, TMP said:

Aquaman 1 billie possible?

Not a certainty but a possibility yes. It need  to do $300M-350M in the US and $400-450M overseas without China.

[filmlover]

My theater is getting 9 new movies across 20 screens between tomorrow through Christmas Day. Jesus. Theater drops about to be ugly. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

My theater is getting 9 new movies across 20 screens between tomorrow through Christmas Day. Jesus. Theater drops about to be ugly. 

Poppins

Aquaman

Second Act

Marwen

Bumblebee

Favourite

Queen of Scots

Vice

Holmes

 

?