The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Prime]

14 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Is it just me or is that absolutely huge for Dragons? (Given the number of early screenings available)

Hard to know, considering we don't have many examples of movies with preview screenings. The Amazon movies (Jumanji, HT3, AQM) were Atom Tickets exclusive, while Spider-Verse did nothing to differentiate itself from regular showings and preview showings. The only good comp we have is Bumblebee. My dumbass didn't separate the preview screenings from the regular shows, but I remember them not selling a whole lot, or at least nowhere near as much as Dragon. Of course, those were in only a couple hundred, while this is in 1,000. So again, very hard to figure out. But it seems pretty solid either way. HT3 did around $1.3M for its Amazon previews, and I think that's a good benchmark for Dragon.

[MrGlass2]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Of these options, I think Glass is gonna fall more Predator than any of the top choices (aka hard core fan base with a movie with subpar rotten tomato score), so I hope it picks up even more this week:).... 

Don't think Predator is a great comparison, it has an actual fanbase going back decades and many movies - nothing like Unbreakable.

 

Glass could be considered a horror movie or a superhero sequel. Hard to say, we will find out soon enough.

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/01/glass-samuel-l-jackson-bruce-willis-mlk-weekend-box-office-opening-record-1202535511/

 

After a post-holiday sleeper period at the B.O., largely dominated by Warner Bros.’ Aquaman, the 2019 box office is set to wake up this weekend with its first, truly fire-breathing event film, Glass from two-time Oscar nominee M. Night Shyamalanwhich is looking at a $105M-$120M global start, inclusive of the four-day MLK domestic holiday.

 

Tracking is seeing Glass at $60M over four-days at roughly 3,700 theaters in U.S./Canada, but there are some who believe this pic given its long fandom appeal could jump to $70M.

[TwoMisfits]

So, a local 14 that I don't track has decided to reserve 6.5 screens for Glass on Thursday night...maybe they know something I don't know...or maybe every other holdover isn't really selling 7 and 10pm weeknight shows, anyway.  I will say, with college coming back around here, maybe it's not a dumb bet to give the students a fun night out before class kick-off...not sure other movies really appeal as the "fun young adult night out"...

[MovieMan89]

We are getting to the point where any live action CBM is practically guaranteed 60m+ on OW. Even when they're not actually comic book based!

[Brinatico]

Don't see the numbers for Glass to open north of 60M 4 day.

Maybe I'm wrong 

 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-51 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8460	10608	20.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              59

 

.3616x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after eight days of pre-sales.

1.1226x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

1.2891x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] 

.6678x as many tickets sold as Solo after eight days of pre-sales. 

1.6360x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after eight days of pre-sales.
1.8331x as many tickers sold as FB2 after eight-plus days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Day Eight Comps:

 

IW:      124 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings |   4908/11011 seats left  | 55.43% sold] 

Solo:     86 tickets sold [1 sellout/87 showings   |   6043/9348 seats left    | 35.36% sold]

JW:FK:   92 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   8764/10113 seats left  | 13.34% sold]

FB2:      48 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings  | 12173/13377 seats left  |   9.00% sold]

Edited January 17, 2019 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

The Captain Marvel tracking looks really promising. On an unrelated note, what is with the Dragon Ball movie? It seems to be selling like crazy on Fandango.

[SchumacherFTW]

6 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

The Captain Marvel tracking looks really promising. On an unrelated note, what is with the Dragon Ball movie? It seems to be selling like crazy on Fandango.

We DBZ fans are rabid

[MaxAggressor]

18 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

How high can it go?

Also what can explain these numbers, seriously: only available through Fandango or only presales?

It's Kakarot !!! His unlimited Power !!! 

[RealLyre]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-51 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8460	10608	20.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              59

 

.3616x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after eight days of pre-sales.

1.1226x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

1.2891x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] 

.6678x as many tickets sold as Solo after eight days of pre-sales. 

1.6360x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after eight days of pre-sales.
1.8331x as many tickers sold as FB2 after eight-plus days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Day Eight Comps:

 

IW:      124 tickets sold [1 sellout/113 showings |   4908/10660 seats left  | 55.43% sold] 

Solo:     86 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |   6043/9348 seats left    | 35.36% sold]

JW:FK:   92 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   8764/10113 seats left  | 13.34% sold]

FB2:      48 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings  | 12173/13377 seats left  |   9.00% sold]

how come Captain Marvel is 1.6x ahead of JWFK in pre-sales for the first 8 days but JWFK sold almost 2x tickets on the 8th day? and Jurassic World is supposed to be more walk up friendly

[Eric Prime]

DO NOT QUOTE

 

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1K expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1,469	3,607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516	3,257
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200	3,511
Replicas	21	133	336	1,002
Upside	394	1,431	3,669	8,602
Glass	3,106	3,978
*4pm-12am

 

Glass

3,106

3,978

 

99% of A Quiet Place's Tuesday: 49.9M

338% of Hereditary: 45.8M

31% of Jurassic World 2: 46.1M

66% of Ant-Man 2: 50.3M

173% of Equalizer 2: 62.4M

135% of The Meg: 61.3M

67% of The Nun: 36M

161% of The Predator: 39.6M

31% of Halloween: 23.5M

219% of Bumblebee: 47.4M (Xmas release)

 

That's a real weak Tuesday bump. Is passing Ride Along even a certainty anymore?

 

Dragon 3 Early

6,957

4,396

 

Captain Marvel

1,118

886

[filmlover]

It does feel like the weak reviews killed a lot of enthusiasm for Glass. Universal’s late marketing push for it hasn’t been strong enough to compensate for the poor buzz either. At this point I won’t be surprised if it barely crosses $100M total.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

23 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

how come Captain Marvel is 1.6x ahead of JWFK in pre-sales for the first 8 days but JWFK sold almost 2x tickets on the 8th day? and Jurassic World is supposed to be more walk up friendly

Because Captain marvel was stupid strong in its first couple days. Also, these tickets are well out in advance compared to Jurassic World which was closer to the release date when they went on sale

[el sid]

Pulse on Monday always 8:35-8:49 EST:
Glass: 16/15 minutes - e.g. Bohemian Rhapsody (not the same genre of course but a bigger film which was also very anticipated) had at that time 57/15 minutes, Halloween had 71/15 - that seems low for Glass but it had so far even before the reviews no great presales and on Monday it gained a little bit speed for the first time.

Pulse on Monday always 11:05-11:19 EST:
Glass: 41/15 minutes - BR had at that time 82/15 minutes, Glass came a bit closer.

Pulse on Tuesday always 8:35-8:49 EST:
Glass: 31/15 - so Glass increased ca. 100% compared to yesterday but OTOH that wasn't difficult.
 

Pulse today always 8:35-8:49 EST:
Glass: 113/15 minutes - BR had 142/15 one hour later (which means that counting was in favor of BR), Halloween 158/15, The Mule had 43/15, Widows 27/15; increase compared to Tuesday 362%

And Pulse today always 10:50-11:04 EST:
Glass: 136/only 13 minutes - BR had 201/15 at that time, The Mule had 48/15, Widows 34/15, I have no numbers for Halloween.
Glass improved a lot today but no idea where it would be with good reviews...
 

Anecdotal: In Germany „Unbreakable“ was broadcasted in the prime time on Sunday and had good TV ratings for one of the smaller (and with a younger target group) but still main TV-stations. Directly after the film (I mean without advertisement in between) they showed 2 or 3 minutes out of „Glass“ which looked really interesting and had more viewers than „Unbreakable“ before. That's what I call intelligent marketing!

[JB33]

Lol, the IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK expansion lasted 1 week at my theatre. Not much interest here, I guess. ON THE BASIS OF SEX is still around though.

 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, RealLyre said:

how come Captain Marvel is 1.6x ahead of JWFK in pre-sales for the first 8 days but JWFK sold almost 2x tickets on the 8th day? and Jurassic World is supposed to be more walk up friendly

It's cumulative.  CM had nearly 2.5x as many ticket sales on its first day than JK:FK did (1498 vs 595)

 

And JK:FK WAS insanely walkup friendly.  There's a reason why it blew past its mooted 125 OW projection/prediction.

[Porthos]

Also there's the territory of low-hanging fruit. It's much easier for a film that still has lots of great seats left to sell more tickets on any given day versus one that has less-desirable seats.  Same concept when it comes to more desirable show times as well as the better theaters in town.

 

Right now, about 33 to 50 percent of the sales locally for CM are being driven by medium hanging fruit being plucked at the good-to-decent theaters at the good-to-decent show times in town.  Enough so that I expect the per-day to crash any day now as the seats get less desirable.  Folks will just wait for better showtimes to get added and/or wait 'till closer to release to get their tickets.

 

Remember, we're still over a month and a half away.  Hell, I'm actually a little bit surprised CM hasn't completely crashed locally (it has on Fandango nationally).  And I think the reason is mostly the above:  A couple of theaters added 'prime time' shows after the initial rush and they've been slowly filling up.  

 

Once they fill up, it will be a long slow dripdripdrip of very low sales.  Which is why I'm nixing all comps after Thursday for a while, except for Infinity War.  Even now the comps are starting to diverge a bit, but I tend to think they'll still hold useful information in context for another couple of days.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Porthos

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

It does feel like the weak reviews killed a lot of enthusiasm for Glass. Universal’s late marketing push for it hasn’t been strong enough to compensate for the poor buzz either. At this point I won’t be surprised if it barely crosses $100M total.

Reviews didn't help as with A Quiet Place (original film) but The Nun had worse reviews.  Marketing is part of it but the "franchise" also isn't as strong or maybe as stable as The Conjuring to slough off those bad reviews for o/w.

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by TalismanRing

[poweranimals]

It's not even in the top 5 on MT.com yet.