The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

‘Captain Marvel’ Opening Weekend: Around $100M – Early Projection

 

https://deadline.com/2019/02/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-weekend-projections-1202557433/

33% unaided awareness compared with 35% Black Panther, 29% Deadpool 2.

 

Still $100mn. That's bullshit.

 

$160mn it is doing for certain.

[John Marston]

100m seems right. Could go higher 

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

33% unaided awareness compared with 35% Black Panther, 29% Deadpool 2.

 

Still $100mn. That's bullshit.

 

$160mn it is doing for certain.

That 33% is first choice according to Deadline, which is even better. BP's was 25%. Source: https://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-record-box-office-opening-1202358812/

 

Quote

Other strong indicators: First choice where Infinity War has an enormous 38 which is also higher than The Force Awakens (22, $247.9M), Black Panther (25, $202M), The Last Jedi (23, $220M), and Jurassic World (17, $209M), and Avengers (21, $207M).

 

[babz06]

This does not have the real world hype that Black Panther has I can tell you that right now. It’s still going to do well but anyone expecting 200m+ is kidding themselves. 

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:
 

Alita: 192/15 minutes - yesterday 70/15 - even on Monday I was still pretty sure that it will lose steam during the week but no, not at all.

And Pulse today 10:50-11:04 EST:

Alita: 322/15 minutes - yesterday it were 123/15, nice jumps both times and it's also #1 now at fandango; here I don't have good comparisons, e.g. The Upside had 211/15 minutes two hours later but I just don't know which walk ups Alita will have

And MT at the moment:
#1 Isn't It Romantic 20.7%
#2 Alita 14% - Mortal Engines had 3.8% two hours later on its release day
#3 Lego 11.8%
#4 HDD2U 7.9%
#5 What Men Want 6.9%

[Napoleon]

Quote

Another box office industry source informed us on Captain Marvel‘s $100M start: “Give or take $20M”.

$80-120m seems about right to me. I never understood the $200m OW expectations here.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

That 33% is first choice according to Deadline, which is even better. BP's was 25%. Source: https://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-record-box-office-opening-1202358812/

 

 

Is first choice quite competition dependent ?

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

I think this is doing 140-145M for a 380-400 total.

[TalismanRing]

5 hours ago, eridani said:

I am learning about BO tracking and all these pulse updates are new to me. What do they exactly mean? Are they numbers of tickets sold through Fandango service?

 

And just how does one make comparison with previous movies? Lets take Alita for example. It says 11,483 for Wednesday.

A quiet place had 10,600 for Wednesday. And it opened to 50 million.

Oceans 8 had 11,000. it opened to 41 million.

Aquaman had 15,000. It opened to 68 million

Bumblebee had 3,000. It opened to 21 million.

Fantastic Beasts had 22,000. Opened to 62 million.

Meg had 6700, opened to 45 million.

 

So there are ratios of those pulse (Sale?) values to actual opening varying from 1:3 to 1:7.  How helpful is that then? What else do i need to take into consideration in order to learn to read those Pulse update values?

 

Would Alita's 11,483 result then mean it should open to anywhere from 33 to 77 million? That doesn't seem remotely right, as most tracking predictions seem to put it in the 15-30 million range 3 day opening.

 

Can anyone help me read those?

Genre (sci fi, action, CBM, comedy, romance, horror, animation), intended audience,  time of year are significant factors as is comparable weekday of release.

 

Alita will behave closer to sci-fi or action films that skew more male and target older teens to younger adults.  Even though Venom is a CBM that could be a good comp.

 

Opening on a Thursday means it's Wed should be compared to a Friday opener's Thur, especially with the earlier previews.

 

Yes, Pulse are tickets sold through Fandango  https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html#

 

Edited February 14, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

9 hours ago, Napoleon said:

$80-120m seems about right to me. I never understood the $200m OW expectations here.

Who, exactly, was 'expecting' $200m OW for Captain Marvel on this board?

 

No one I've seen, that's for sure.

Edited February 15, 2019 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Who, exactly, was 'expecting' $200m OW for Captain Marvel on this board?

 

No one I've seen, that's for sure.

Almost everybody is expecting $ 140 - 160M, which is completely reasonable and possible

Just a few people thinks this will pull a Black Panther phenomenon ... but people see what they want to see

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Almost everybody is expecting $ 140 - 160M, which is completely reasonable and possible

Just a few people thinks this will pull a Black Panther phenomenon ... but people see what they want to see

The highest I've seen was a comment from @Deep Wang who IIRC speculated it might, and I empathize MIGHT, have the juice to pass the March OW record of BatB (174.75m).    And that was off the basis of the very strong first couple of days of pre-sales. 

 

He's since backed away from that a bit.  And even when he broached it, was floated as a possibility. Which is a far thing from an 'expectation' in my book.

 

Now, sure.  There might be folks out there who are 'expecting' (read: hoping) for something as high as a 190m OW.  

 

But I doubt very many people seriously expect it to happen, never mind replicating BP.  

Edited February 15, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Who, exactly, was 'expecting' $200m OW for Captain Marvel on this board?

 

No one I've seen, that's for sure.

I’ve seen at least 4 people repeatedly predict 200M in the CM thread, though I don’t know how many are being serious.

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’ve seen at least 4 people repeatedly predict 200M in the CM thread, though I don’t know how many are being serious.

Fair enuf.  Though, fanbois/grls gonna fan.  Still, as you note, it's hardly a huge number of people.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7294	10616	31.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              51

 

.4748x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 21 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.9404x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 21 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

2.6116x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 21 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

 

Day T-21 Comp:

 

IW:      127 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4129/11125 seats left  | 62.89% sold]

DP2:     98 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings  | 10045/11757 seats left  | 14.56% sold]

FB2:     49 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings |  12105/13377 seats left  |  9.51% sold]

[MrGlass2]

MT

1	17.5%	Isn't It Romantic
2	17.1%	Alita: Battle Angel
3	10.8%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	9.3%	What Men Want
5	8.5%	Happy Death Day 2U

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-14 03:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.968%	15573	Alita Battle Angel
2	17.738%	12027	Isnt It Romantic
3	11.631%	7886	What Men Want
4	09.010%	6109	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
5	08.442%	5724	Happy Death Day 2U

[dxmatrixdt]

14 hours ago, Napoleon said:

$80-120m seems about right to me. I never understood the $200m OW expectations here.

because it is a WOMAN,

most of us have never seen something like that before

Edited February 15, 2019 by Slave Animal Rights

[RealLyre]

we need some BP comps but doing almost 2x as DP2 is very good for Captain Marvel, ensures a 130M+ OW

 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

Who, exactly, was 'expecting' $200m OW for Captain Marvel on this board?

 

No one I've seen, that's for sure.

@DMan7

[fabiopazzo2]

14 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I’ve seen at least 4 people repeatedly predict 200M in the CM thread, though I don’t know how many are being serious.

Troll