The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RealLyre]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The lack of Pet Sematary on MT concerns me a tiny bit ... otoh, Endgame likely just skews the picture for the holdovers and newcomers this weekend.

Endgame is def skewing the results, Shazam which is projected to open almost twice as much as Pet Sematary only got into the top 5 today. I don't think there's need to panic.... yet

 

[nevermore]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Does the tweets-per-day chart on Box office.com still exists? Wondering what heights JOKER trailer has reached. 

No, it's gone after they redesigned the site.

[excel1]

2 minutes ago, nevermore said:

No, it's gone after they redesigned the site.

 

Very LAME

[Cooper Legion]

30 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

If it manages to stay in the top5  this weekend, I doubt it will ever drop off.

That would be epic. Never out of the MT top 5 in the whole run.     

 

I think it will fall down to at least #6 by Saturday though  

[mulderfox]

10 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Endgame is def skewing the results, Shazam which is projected to open almost twice as much as Pet Sematary only got into the top 5 today. I don't think there's need to panic.... yet

 

No Shazam was in top 5 on monday then it dropped out because of Endgame. Then it came in top 5 tuesday

Edited April 4, 2019 by mulderfox

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 3/29/2019 at 5:15 PM, VenomXXR said:

In preparation for Endgame, I was looking back at the numbers at my theater for Captain Marvel and Infinity War on previews Thursday. My last updates were at 6:30pm CST on Wednesday for Captain Marvel, and 8:30pm CST on Wednesday for Infinity War. I'll update at around the same time as I did for IW on the same day, as it's the closer comp. 

 

24 Screen Theater

 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%)
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%)  

 

Avengers: Endgame Current Status -- April 3, 2019 @ 6:50pm -- 22 Days Remaining 

 

AMC Prime

6:00pm -- 201/205 
10:00pm -- 178/205

2:00am -- 41/205

 

 

IMAX 3D

6:30pm -- 144/151

10:30pm -- 123/151 

2:30am -- 27/151 

 

 

Real 3D

6:15pm -- 41/60

6:45pm -- 40/60

7:30pm -- 86/125

8:00pm -- 53/76

8:45pm -- 31/60 

9:45pm -- 17/44

10:25pm -- 22/60

10:45pm -- 13/60 

11:30pm -- 19/125 

12:00am -- 3/76 
12:45am -- 2/60

1:50am -- 2/44

 

 

Digital
6:00pm -- 64/76

6:10pm -- 32/44

7:00pm -- 119/147

7:10pm -- 30/44 

7:15pm -- 57/76

7:45pm -- 45/60

7:50pm -- 28/44 

8:15pm -- 31/44

8:30pm -- 54/76

9:00pm -- 107/147

9:30pm -- 23/44 

10:10pm -- 21/44

10:15pm -- 55/76

11:00pm -- 97/147

11:10pm -- 18/44 

11:15pm -- 52/76

11:45pm -- 27/60

11:50pm -- 13/44

12:15am -- 11/44

12:30am -- 14/76

1:00am -- 0/147

1:45am -- 0/44

 

 

Fan Event

5:00pm -- 145/147

 

 

 

TOTALS: 40 show times, 2086 tickets sold out of 3669 available (56.85%)

 

Tickets sold represents 183% of the tickets sold for Captain Marvel through 6:30pm on Wednesday before opening & 85.2% of the tickets sold for Infinity War through 8:30pm on the Wednesday before opening.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

Like I said, Endgame continues to climb the MT, now with 59.1.    

 

Us 8.3  (20.3 adj)

Dumbo 7.6  (18.6 adj)

Shazam 6.5 (15.9 adj)

CM 4.9 (12.0 adj)

Edited April 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[RealLyre]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

That would be epic. Never out of the MT top 5 in the whole run.     

 

I think it will fall down to at least #6 by Saturday though  

it's almost back to 60% now.. and it doesn't seem to be slowing down much, I think the only movies that will be higher than EG this weekend are Shazam, PS, Dumbo and Us. so it could stay in the top 5 imo.

 

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's almost back to 60% now.. and it doesn't seem to be slowing down much, I think the only movies that will be higher than EG this weekend are Shazam, PS, Dumbo and Us. so it could stay in the top 5 imo.

 

It’s rising today because the other movies are losing their discount Tuesday juice, which contributes to almost double sales over other weekdays iirc. Saturday sales for current releases should be ~3x Wednesday, but I’m really not sure how much E.G. will sustain itself. We will be < 3 weeks from premiere then, so maybe.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Avengers: Endgame Current Status -- April 3, 2019 @ 6:50pm -- 22 Days Remaining 

 

Fan Event

5:00pm -- 145/147

 

 

 

TOTALS: 40 show times, 2086 tickets sold out of 3669 available (56.85%)

 

Tickets sold represents 183% of the tickets sold for Captain Marvel through 6:30pm on Wednesday before opening & 85.2% of the tickets sold for Infinity War through 8:30pm on the Wednesday before opening.

 

Crazy good number and reminds me I forgot to check the Fan Event ($10 extra dollar for a drink an a coin?  Come on!) at my theater (251/257) .  It's sold out except for some wheelchair places.

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%)

Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%)  

 

Endgame - TOTALS: 40 show times, 2086 tickets sold out of 3669 available (56.85%)

 

I'm shocked at Endgame having more show times than IW despite being 34 minutes longer.. 

 

the Thursday preview number for EG is gonna be insane

 

[TalismanRing]

22 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Endgame is def skewing the results, Shazam which is projected to open almost twice as much as Pet Sematary only got into the top 5 today. I don't think there's need to panic.... yet

 

It makes them all lower but Discount Tues after affects is what skews the comparative % to holdovers.

 

Both new movies though need to be well above US and Dumbo by Thurs to hit their predicative targets. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

I'm shocked at Endgame having more show times than IW despite being 34 minutes longer.. 

 

the Thursday preview number for EG is gonna be insane

 

Theaters didn't know AIW was going to do $257.8m and are adjusting for AEG accordingly and then some.  These are just the starting number of screens.

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Variety is a good source. I think I read from one of Scott Mendelson’s articles that studios take in ~55% of the domestic gross. If that is the case, then Shazam needs about 150 million to break even. The OS and digital sales would be icing on the cake at that point. If the movie can pull that off 150M, then it would be a great investment by WB.

Big studio release yes can get 55% (even around 65% for Disney biggest) of the domestic gross.

 

150m dbo for a relatively small 80m movie (with no one getting much if any first dollar gross deal looking at the cast and crew) would be more on great success side than breaking even.

 

Let say the movie play extremely domestic heavy (possible comedy can do that), 90-95m domestic could very well be enough to break even, usually if you reach / go over your budget domestic alone on a movie that is not a very small budget affair, you will not loose money (except if you big back end deal, expected a giant worldwide phenomenon with the world marketing campaign spending with it that failed, etc... case).

 

Could be a significantly cheaper movie than say Ocean 8.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Barnack

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Big studio release yes can get 55% (even around 65% for Disney biggest) of the domestic gross.

 

150m dbo for a relatively small 80m movie (with no one getting much if any first dollar gross deal looking at the cast and crew) would be more on great success side than breaking even.

 

Let say the movie play extremely domestic heavy (possible comedy can do that), 90-95m domestic could very well be enough to break even, usually if you reach / go over your budget domestic alone on a movie that is not a very small budget affair, you will not loose money (except if you big back end deal, expected a giant worldwide phenomenon with the world marketing campaign spending with it that failed, etc... case).

 

Could be a significantly cheaper movie than say Ocean 8.

That used to be just SW but it's a sign of the times that AIW got that and I don't recall any MCU movies before getting that %.   I wonder what CM got.

 

. 

[Cooper Legion]

16 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Crazy good number and reminds me I forgot to check the Fan Event ($10 extra dollar for a drink an a coin?  Come on!) at my theater (251/257) .  It's sold out except for some wheelchair places.

You could charge $20 more for nothing other than the 60 minute head start and they’d easily sell out XD

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That used to be just SW but it's a sign of the times that AIW got that and I don't recall any MCU movies before getting that %.   I wonder what CM got.

 

. 

Was still an impressive 60% since Iron Man 3 I think:

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-backs-down-avengers-matinee-793694

For years, Disney wasn't as aggressive as other studios when it came to revenue splits with theaters. But two years ago, just before Iron Man 3 opened, the studio renegotiated its terms, and now it is getting as much as 60 percent back on its big tentpoles, like Avengers: Age of Ultron. That's in line with other big-event pics from rival studios.

 

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-disney-theater-owners-avengers-iger-20150505-story.html

Underscoring its growing global clout, Disney renegotiated its terms with exhibitors in 2013, allowing it to command a more generous cut of the box-office take on certain tent-pole pictures. The company will receive about 60% of receipts in the U.S. and Canada on the "Avengers" film.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

You could charge $20 more for nothing other than the 60 minute head start and they’d easily sell out XD

I was tempted but thought I'd at least get a freaking small poster if not a T-Shirt for almost $30 a ticket to a 2D screening.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Big studio release yes can get 55% (even around 65% for Disney biggest) of the domestic gross.

 

150m dbo for a relatively small 80m movie (with no one getting much if any first dollar gross deal looking at the cast and crew) would be more on great success side than breaking even.

 

Let say the movie play extremely domestic heavy (possible comedy can do that), 90-95m domestic could very well be enough to break even, usually if you reach / go over your budget domestic alone on a movie that is not a very small budget affair, you will not loose money (except if you big back end deal, expected a giant worldwide phenomenon with the world marketing campaign spending with it that failed, etc... case).

 

Could be a significantly cheaper movie than say Ocean 8.

Thank you for the explanation, Barnack! Mendelson wrote an article a while back wherein he argued that domestic gross is still preferred by studios. With your explanation above, the article makes even more sense.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Thank you for the explanation, Barnack! Mendelson wrote an article a while back wherein he argued that domestic gross is still preferred by studios. With your explanation above, the article makes even more sense.

 

There is many reason for that, but 2 major one is how disproportionately big for the toy, video game and home entertainment market are in the US.

 

The United State represent only 4.3% of the world population, but represent a lot of the aftermakets:

 

 

 

 

from the movie industry point of view:

https://www.mpaa.org/press/new-report-global-theatrical-and-home-entertainment-market-reached-96-8-billion-in-2018/

 

Gobal home entertainment was a 55b market, 23b of which were from the United State alone (41%), while US+Canada together were only 28.5% of the global box office.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Barnack