The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

My Regal Local  added a 6:15pm when I wasn't looking and it's almost filled.  Two more showings are added in 2D but haven't gone live yet.   Late 3D shows filling slowly

 

THURSDAY
FAN EVENT	257	251	97.66%
RPX
6pm	320	306
10pm	320	295
	640	601	92.65%
2D
6:15pm	255	210
6:30pm	301	280
7pm	301	281
8pm	248	232
9pm	301	282
10:15pm	255	217
10:30pm	301	270
	1,962	1,772	90.30%
3D
7:15pm	256	225
7:30pm	218	138
7:40pm	205	174
11pm	301	216
11:15pm	256	143
11:30pm	205	53
11:45pm	218	47
12:05am	218	45
	1,877	1,041	55.19%
TOTAL	4,736	3,665	77.38%

[Nova]

The box office smash to be, Ugly Dolls, has tickets on sale according to the Fandango tracker. Ugly Dolls coming to end End Game’s legs. 

[FlashMaster659]

@grim22 Will you do an LA sellout count for Endgame?

[Ledmonkey96]

As of 4/11/19	Tickets Sold	Total Tickets	% sold
Thursday	851	870	97.82%
Friday	1122	1386	80.95%
Saturday	1209	1647	73.41%
Sunday	708	1647	42.99%
Total	3890	5550	70.09%

 

 

Sold 90 since yesterday, Sunday's number went down by 10 due to a show that i had assumed was being rented out was added back on Fandango with only 8 sold instead of 61. 

 

As it stands the Thursday night previews are already 7/11 sold out. Though Fandango's definition of sold out seems to fluctuate considering how many times some of the shows have gone from greyed out to selling.

[stfletch]

AIW vs AEG Fandango Update

 

AIW Date	Days to Open	AIW Tickets	AEG Date	AEG Tickets	AEG/AIW	Notes
2018-03-16	41	29,410
2018-03-17	40	16,237
2018-03-18	39	10,631
2018-03-19	38	14,574
2018-03-20	37	9,366
2018-03-21	36	8,281
2018-03-22	35	6,101
2018-03-23	34	3,753
2018-03-24	33	2,426
2018-03-25	32	3,655
2018-03-26	31	5,191
2018-03-27	30	4,647
2018-03-28	29	4,241
2018-03-29	28	3,060
2018-03-30	27	2,134
2018-03-31	26	2,471
2018-04-01	25	3,662
2018-04-02	24	7,257
2018-04-03	23	6,866	2019-04-02	330,000		Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04	22	7,917	2019-04-03	40,000		Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05	21	5,692	2019-04-04	30,292	5.3
2018-04-06	20	3,618	2019-04-05	17,428	4.8
2018-04-07	19	3,383	2019-04-06	11,697	3.5
2018-04-08	18	6,363	2019-04-07	16,137	2.5
2018-04-09	17	10,828	2019-04-08	28,219	2.6
2018-04-10	16	8,670	2019-04-09	24,701	2.8
2018-04-11	15	13,960	2019-04-10	25,617	1.8
2018-04-12	14	13,332	2019-04-11	23,680	1.8
2018-04-13	13	7,614	2019-04-12	15,554	2.0
2018-04-14	12	5,602	2019-04-13	11,720	2.1
2018-04-15	11	9,314	2019-04-14	17,436	1.9
2018-04-16	10	18,403	2019-04-15	26,081	1.4
2018-04-17	9	19,431	2019-04-16	28,800	1.5
2018-04-18	8	23,790
2018-04-19	7	18,788
2018-04-20	6	14,281
2018-04-21	5	12,368
2018-04-22	4	27,180
2018-04-23	3	48,861
2018-04-24	2	55,376
2018-04-25	1	68,137
2018-04-26	0	76,734
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

Edited April 17, 2019 by stfletch

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 4/16/19 (End of Tues)  

1	17.6%	Shazam!
2	17.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	12.8%	Little
4	8%	Dumbo
5	7.5%	Captain Marvel   

 

Shazam edged it out. Also CM was 85% of Dumbo on MT yesterday, but 97.5% BO. Today it’s 94% on MT, very curious what the ratio of actuals will be (maybe >100%?)

Dumbo is still ahead. About $150k it will be.

[Porthos]

Soooo, starting to think that new theater isn't gonna open in time to get Endgame's OW.

 

Now saying "Opening April 25th" on the mall web site while the corp website still says "opening in April". 

 

===

 

To be honest, really kinda glad.  I have way too many showings to check already.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Dumbo is still ahead. About $150k it will be.

Yeah, that makes sense, Dumbo has tended to have stronger Tues bumps. Curious why the relative fall on MT but a good reminder that’s it’s very imprecise.    

 

Something like CM 1.35, Dumbo 1.5?

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Soooo, starting to think that new theater isn't gonna open in time to get Endgame's OW.

 

Now saying "Opening April 25th" on the mall web site while the corp website still says "opening in April". 

 

===

 

To be honest, really kinda glad.  I have way too many showings to check already.

‘Bout to give new meaning to “Opening Day.”

Edited April 17, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, that makes sense, Dumbo has tended to have stronger Tues bumps. Curious why the relative fall on MT but a good reminder that’s it’s very imprecise.    

 

Something like CM 1.35, Dumbo 1.5?

A bit lower.

[FlashMaster659]

29,148 for Endgame on Fandango today

[charlie Jatinder]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-04-16 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	38.075%	25746	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	10.964%	7414	Shazam!
3	07.663%	5182	Little (2019)
4	05.738%	3880	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	04.445%	3006	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
6	04.135%	2796	Pet Sematary (2019)
7	04.091%	2766	Hellboy (2019)
8	03.474%	2349	Dumbo (2019)
9	03.341%	2259	Us (2019)
10	02.511%	1698	Missing Link (2019)

[cdsacken]

Incredible

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	17	243	5547	24576	77.43%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               3

Total Seats Sold Today:                  287

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.9469x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 9 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.2095x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
1.0755x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-9):             200 tickets sold that day   [4 sellouts/131 showings   | 4495/12673 seats left  | 64.53% sold]      

EG (adj*):              228 tickets sold today       [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4211/20133 seats left  | 79.08% sold]

EG (exact**):           215 tickets sold today       [17 sellouts/217 showings | 3763/17920 seats left  | 79.01% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   15922 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4211/20133 seats left  | 79.08% sold]

EG (exact**):  14158 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/217 showings | 3762/17920 seats left  | 79.01% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

4.3435x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel  9 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.8032x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.

 

CM (T-9):          168 tickets sold that day [2 sellouts/98 showings    | 7713/12094 seats left  | 36.22% sold]

CM (final):     10553 tickets sold at stop   [8 sellouts/216 showings  | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:                19029 tickets sold so far    [17 sellouts/243 showings | 5547/24576 seats left | 77.43% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps (T-9 and Final):

Spoiler

4.8557x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release. [BP had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
5.1982x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 9 days before release. [DP2 had 29 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.5054x as many tickets sold as Solo 9 days before release. [Solo had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
8.9701x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 9 days before release. [JW2 had 22 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]

 

BP (T-9)             125 tickets sold that day [2 sellout/70 showings      |  3831/7110 seats left    | 46.12% sold]

DP2 (T-9)          154 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/119 showings   | 10404/13467 seats left | 22.74% sold] 

Solo (T-9)            83 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/90 showings      |  6266/9800 seats left    | 36.06% sold]

JW2 (T-9)           109 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/111 showings   |  9488/11263 seats left | 15.76% sold]

EG(adj*) (T-9)      228 tickets sold today     [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4211/20133 seats left  | 79.08% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

----

 

1.9647x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.
1.9577x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.
2.7504x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.
2.5565x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   15922 tickets sold so far   [17 sellouts/243 showings | 4211/20133 seats left  | 79.08% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 9 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/357 showings (+0/+11)    [IW: 0/215]

Sat:  0 sellouts/354 showings (+0/+12)   [IW: 0/216]

Sun: 0 sellouts/329 showings (+0/+1)     [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  17/243 (+3/+0) [2D: 17/195 (+3/+0)  | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 214 screens [IW: 86 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:    17* [+3] [IW: 4]

90-95%: 45  [-2] [IW: 11]

80-89%: 61  [+4] [IW: 18]

70-79%: 30  [-3] [IW: 18]

60-69%: 22  [+1] [IW: 16]

50-59%:   8  [-2]  [IW: 3]

40-49%: 10  [+4] [IW: 7]

30-39%:   7  [nc]  [IW: 2]

20-29%:   7  [+1] [IW: 3]

10-19%:   5  [-2] [IW: 3]

0-9%:       3  [-4] [IW: 1]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

[BudStarr]

I’m not much of a poster but a regular reader of this thread and really appreciate all the analysis and numbers from everyone here.

 

Inspired by @CoolEric258‘s suggestion, I delved into the akvalley archives for PG/family/kids presales from 2018. Here’s some comparisons up against Detective Pikachu:

 

First 7 days

49% of The Incredibles 2 (89.5m)

580% of The Grinch (392m)

3048% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (1.34b)

 

Day 30-24

120% of The Incredibles 2 (219m)

 

Cumulative

38.1% of Incredibles 2 (69.6m)

 

I went for TI2, Grinch and HT3 because they were PG with 35, 28 and 25 days of presales respectively, similar to Detective Pikachu’s 30 day frame. The data is nowhere near ideal at this stage, I know, but I do like The Incredibles 2 as a comp. Main takeaway for me is that, apart from TI2, family film presales are so low 3 weeks out as to be virtually useless for drawing any firm conclusions but hopefully they will become more meaningful as the days roll on. Any more suggestions for good comps from 2018 and I’d be more than happy to keep wading through the archives to supplement the already great numbers provided by @CoolEric258 @Porthos @TalismanRing Etc. 😀

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, BudStarr said:

7 days

49% of The Incredibles 2 (89.5m)

 

Cumulative

38.1% of Incredibles 2 (69.6m)

While noting that all films are different and that that I2 had the built in advantage of being a sequel, this does look pretty good for Pika Pika.  Seems to be broadly in line with BOP's 90m forecast. 

So great work there. 👍

Edited April 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

While noting that all films are different that that I2 had the built in advantage of being a sequel, this does look pretty good for Pika Pika.  Seems to be broadly in line with BOP's 90m forecast. 

So great work there. 👍

Speaking of...

 

*sees that forecast ALSO has SLOP2 at 70m-90m OW*

*realizes SLOP2 tickets are technically on sale right now*

 

...

 

 

(maaaaaybe a week from release.  But like hell am I gonna start ANOTHER one up right now )

[Mulder]

Great can people stop trying to argue DP is going to open in the 60s or 70s now. 😄 And before anyone calls me a fanboy, I don't think Det Pika looks good movie-wise, but box office-wise it's going to do great.

[dakus]

25 minutes ago, BudStarr said:

First 7 days

3048% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (1.34b)

 

I'm taking this as confirmation that Pikachu beating TFA's entire run in its opening weekend is officially locked

Edited April 17, 2019 by dakus

[Minnale101]

25 minutes ago, BudStarr said:

I’m not much of a poster but a regular reader of this thread and really appreciate all the analysis and numbers from everyone here.

 

Inspired by @CoolEric258‘s suggestion, I delved into the akvalley archives for PG/family/kids presales from 2018. Here’s some comparisons up against Detective Pikachu:

 

First 7 days

49% of The Incredibles 2 (89.5m)

580% of The Grinch (392m)

3048% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (1.34b)

 

Day 30-24

120% of The Incredibles 2 (219m)

 

Cumulative

38.1% of Incredibles 2 (69.6m)

 

I went for TI2, Grinch and HT3 because they were PG with 35, 28 and 25 days of presales respectively, similar to Detective Pikachu’s 30 day frame. The data is nowhere near ideal at this stage, I know, but I do like The Incredibles 2 as a comp. Main takeaway for me is that, apart from TI2, family film presales are so low 3 weeks out as to be virtually useless for drawing any firm conclusions but hopefully they will become more meaningful as the days roll on. Any more suggestions for good comps from 2018 and I’d be more than happy to keep wading through the archives to supplement the already great numbers provided by @CoolEric258 @Porthos @TalismanRing Etc. 😀

I know endgame is gonna break all the records and I know that’s much more interesting to follow but I really appreciate you doing this because I really wanted to see how detective pikachu was fairing also

 

thanks bruh 

Edited April 17, 2019 by Minnale101