The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Are they doing that well? finally matching TLJ two days out is not that good especially considering two years of presale growth and the closeness of Christmas kinda undercuts that too 

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

[TwoMisfits]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Predictions dont matter. we have wang's numbers and we have MTC numbers and we have folks like @Porthos who tracked Solo and now SW9 and so its not hard to see where it will end up. This is definitely nothing like Solo.

 

Edit: for Solo by release week the expectations started trending lower. Variety/HR said 130-150m and that was thinking SW faithful will walk in for it despite PS not what was expected after initial spurt.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-preview-solo-headed-lowest-opening-disney-star-wars-movies-1114228

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-opening-preview-1202818890/

To be fair, last week "industry expectations" were $175M for TROS...now Disney's are $160M this week...

 

So, TROS is also trending downward...but, with its enormous presales, there's not much more trend down it can go, I don't think...unless folks start returning their presold tickets, and that's pretty unlikely...

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

So $200M-$205M?

 

I know it's a long shot, but I'm hoping WOM is good amoung audiences and that the internal multi is stronger than normal. I'd love to see a bigger Saturday than we all expect based on opening day.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

To be fair, last week "industry expectations" were $175M for TROS...now Disney's are $160M this week...

 

So, TROS is also trending downward...but, with its enormous presales, there's not much more trend down it can go, I don't think...unless folks start returning their presold tickets, and that's pretty unlikely...

Disney always go below industry expectations. F2 at 100m during release week !!!!!

[boomboom234]

17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

Doesn’t the article from deadline so on pace with TLJ? 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/16/2019 at 8:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9(T-3)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5729 shows 406147/918802 6003181.03 +18093
MTC2 Prev - overall 3345 shows 264121/478214 3294739.00 +8769
MTC1 OD - overall 5587 shows 347498/1125030 5231961.66 +25944
MTC2 OD - overall 5045 shows 268852/807908 2929285.00 +16006
MTC1 D2 - overall 5406 shows 286003/1099143 4126364.66 +13114 (20 hours)
MTC2 D2 - overall 4650 shows 222472/754419 2373846.00 +8969 (20 hours)
MTC1 D3 - overall 5231 shows 176171/1062383 2541168.27 +9492 (19 hours)
MTC2 D3 - overall 4641 shows 133752/758720 1374614.00 +7473 (20 hours)

 

Very nice acceleration especially at MTC1. I had run D2/3 earlier this afternoon and so it was less than full day but looking at Previews/OD at MTC1 acceleration is starting. I am hoping for at least 7K shows at MTC1 for previews and 5K at MTC2. for OD the show count should cross 8K. let us wait for tomorrow for big burst and then again on final day.

 

I also ran D6/7 earlier this morning. Good numbers especially on christmas day.

 

MTC1 D6 - overall 4642 shows 77586/942586 1098230.56
MTC2 D6 - overall 3165 shows 68585/548663 699170.00
MTC1 D7 - overall 4554 shows 34411/924184 490469.86
MTC2 D7 - overall 3135 shows 29857/547234 297228.00

 

 

SW9 (T-2)

MTC1 previews -overall 6463 shows 428568/992189 6315156.59  +22421
MTC2 Previews - overall 3713 shows 278911/517004 3465469.00 +14790
MTC1 OD - overall 7549 shows 376731/1361150 5623961.33 +29233
MTC2 OD - overall 5972 shows 294353/913779 3184614.00 +25501
MTC1 D2 - overall 6052 shows 308639/1176057 4425738.92 +22636
MTC2 D2 - overall 5468 shows 240738/857727 2567671.00 +16266
MTC1 D3 - overall 6052 shows 193562/1168350 2780059.17  +17389
MTC2 D3 - overall 5544 shows 147993/870260 1519243.00  +14241

 

Huge boost for OD. at MTC2 the OD has pulled away though I expect previews to boost more on thursday and retake the lead.

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Doesn’t the article from deadline so on pace with TLJ? 

Yes but it’s growing more than TLJ.

 

TROS was behind TLJ not long ago

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-2)

MTC1 previews -overall 6463 shows 428568/992189 6315156.59  +22421
MTC2 Previews - overall 3713 shows 278911/517004 3465469.00 +14790
MTC1 OD - overall 7549 shows 376731/1361150 5623961.33 +29233
MTC2 OD - overall 5972 shows 294353/913779 3184614.00 +25501
MTC1 D2 - overall 6052 shows 308639/1176057 4425738.92 +22636
MTC2 D2 - overall 5468 shows 240738/857727 2567671.00 +16266
MTC1 D3 - overall 6052 shows 193562/1168350 2780059.17  +17389
MTC2 D3 - overall 5544 shows 147993/870260 1519243.00  +14241

 

Huge boost for OD. at MTC2 the OD has pulled away though I expect previews to boost more on thursday and retake the lead.

I am a bit disappointed at the boost tbh. It's falling way behind TLK pace at MTC2 so might not match what I was projecting from that but hopefully it can jump tomorrow.

[Eric the Marxist]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

To be fair, last week "industry expectations" were $175M for TROS...now Disney's are $160M this week...

 

So, TROS is also trending downward...but, with its enormous presales, there's not much more trend down it can go, I don't think...unless folks start returning their presold tickets, and that's pretty unlikely...

I think "industry expectations" and Disney's expectations are two different beasts IIRC

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local (Regal) is up...and it also did NOT expand TROS for FSS - the movie will be stuck with 18 showings (4 3d, 14 2d)...this has now become a pattern at the smaller theaters (since this is 3 in my metro doing it already)...and again, they have chosen to hold holdovers that you'd think would have been dropped if the theaters were either getting a better deal or expecting an enormous, mind-blowing number...they obviously did math and figured sucky holdovers at possibly a 40% pull would make as much or more revenue for them as 65% takes on TROS - can't say I blame them b/c everything tends to sell out Dec 21-25...here's the set...

 

NEW 

TROS 4 - 18 showings- 4 3d, 14 2d) - they get the biggies

Cats 1 - 6 showings

Bombshell 1 - 5 showings

 

Returning

Black Christmas 1 - 5 showings - yes, their studio also seemed to know how to cut a booking deal, just like Richard Jewell, which speaking of...

Richard Jewell 1 - 5 showings - just like the other local - great contract:)

Jumanji 1 - 5 showings - lost a screen but at least keeps a 2nd biggest one

Knives Out 1 - 5 showings

Frozen 1 - 5 showings

Queen and Slim 1 - 5 showings - are you kidding?  this is the biggest "we either don't expect a huge SW number or we're gonna make subscribers wait to see it b/c we gotta hold it 4 weeks anyway...so watch this movie where we pay out so much less" call:)...

 

So, 3 theaters small-to-midsize theaters...no TROS expansion FSS - I fully expect them to give Thursday night shows in full to TROS, so we could be looking at Thursday having as many showings as a FSS in many places...

Jumanji charging less than cheap movies. Star wars charging 65% ,(OUCH). Why would they?

[narniadis]

What @TwoMisfits is forgetting in regards to Black Christmas and Richard Jewell is that they come from major studios (WB and Universal) as such the standard 2 week minimum is going to be honored, i.e. keeping it on a full screen for the 5 showings. 

Its not like they were some one off indi such as an A24 film or such with much less wiggle room. 

The problem with BC and RJ is that likely in addition to potential SW needs, Christmas films will also need screens and they will potentially be eligible for cutting then without breaking the contract. 

 

The odd duck is definitely queen and slim, but maybe it has played well at that particular theater.   

As with the presales, its also potentially over thinking to apply inapplicable connotations to films in the 2 week window. 

Edit to add:

Not saying theaters arent being more selective, and Disney is being stupidly bull headed with their 65%/4 week crap, but such is the cost of showing the highest grossing movies and best overall crowd draws. Downside is that as noted by others, everyone goes to the cinema this time of year and having better return potential is a question that theaters have to answer. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by narniadis

[Eric the Marxist]

Cats Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	136	2,785	4.88%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 62

Total Seats Sold Today: 24

 

Comp

1.308x of Dora (1.63M)

2.267x of Abominable (1.47M)

0.782x of Addams Family (977K)

0.560x of Maleficent (1.29M)

2.667x of Last Christmas (1.53M)

1.143x of Charlie’s Angels (1.03M)

0.070x of Frozen II (594K)

0.470x of Jumanji (2.21M)

 

Not much else to say. Comps are kinda all over the place, but most of them I'd say would be fine. Not much to report

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	251	9470	26932	17462	64.84%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	4
Total Showings Added Today	23*
Total Seats Added Today	1230
Total Seats Sold Today	668

* NOTE: Includes eight showings from theaters and drive-ins that have non-reserved seating

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #1 

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	241.26		802	6917		1/195	11747/18664	37.06%		49.94m
EG	75.16		1182	22204		41/302	5738/27942	79.46%		45.09m
TROS (adj)	n/a		634	16688		11/251	8373/25061	66.59%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	322.79		236	4501		1/103	6745/11010	38.74%		45.51m
TROS (adj)	n/a		527	14529		11/251	6320/20849	69.26%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	178.64		8133		14529		33.23m
Solo	250.98		5789		14529		35.59m
JW:FK	233.29		6228		14529		35.69m
AM&tW	315.50		4605		14529		36.28m
Venom	345.58		4493		15527		34.56m
CM	158.14		10553		16688		32.73m
EG	62.61		26655		16688		37.56m
TLK	152.03		10977		16688		34.97m
It 2	308.57		5659		17462		32.40m
AVG							34.76m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

===

 

An increase from yesterday, but not nearly like the bump Endgame got. Almost entirely down to the fact that most of the showings added today were after 9pm.  The ones that were are in the 6pm to 8pm range are mostly getting snapped up in a hurry.  But the intensity to get the worst of the worst seats isn't quite there.

 

Some theaters should still add showtimes though.  Still, now down to how many sellouts (or Tele sellouts if one prefers) TROS manages to get.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	290	21203	58052	36849	36.52%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Showings Added Today: 15

Total Seats Added Today: 2076

Total Seats Sold Today: 1307

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	251.79		8421		21203		33.49m
Frozen 2	328.22		6460		21203		27.90m

 

===

 

Another impressive day here in the region. We're really in the final stretch now.

[Eric the Marxist]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	200	13,885	34,866	39.82%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Shows Added Today: 14

Total Seats Added Today: 1,136

Total Seats Sold Today: 835

 

Comp

7.273x of It: Chapter Two 2 days before release (76.37M)

5.428x of Joker 2 days before release (72.19M)

7.135x of Frozen II 2 days before release (60.65M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.036x of Lion King 2 days before release (46.82M)

 

This was what I was looking for. A strong increase, bolstered by a couple sellouts too. I'm satisfied right now.

[Madhuvan]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	251	9470	26932	17462	64.84%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	4
Total Showings Added Today	23*
Total Seats Added Today	1230
Total Seats Sold Today	668

* NOTE: Includes eight showings from theaters and drive-ins that have non-reserved seating

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #1 

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	241.26		802	6917		1/195	11747/18664	37.06%		49.94m
EG	75.16		1182	22204		41/302	5738/27942	79.46%		45.09m
TROS (adj)	n/a		634	16688		11/251	8373/25061	66.59%		n/a

 

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

  Reveal hidden contents

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	178.64		8133		14529		33.23m
Solo	250.98		5789		14529		35.59m
JW:FK	233.29		6228		14529		35.69m
AM&tW	315.50		4605		14529		36.28m
Venom	345.58		4493		15527		34.56m
CM	158.14		10553		16688		32.73m
EG	62.61		26655		16688		37.56m
TLK	152.03		10977		16688		34.97m
It 2	308.57		5659		17462		32.40m
AVG							34.76m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

As of now 45m looks more likely. Hoping for good increase today around 1800 tickets. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

As of now 45m looks more likely. Hoping for good increase today around 1800 tickets. 

Weeelllll, we'll see.  I didn't exactly love the day-to-day increase locally today.  Would have liked to see about 100 or so more tickets.  40+ is very likely as long as Sacto isn't massively over-performing, I'll say that much.

 

As for 45m?  Might just come down to how many sellouts we get and/or how many more decent showtimes get added between now and 6pm Thr.

[Porthos]

Now notwithstanding what I said in my last post, and not counting shows that are already sold out, there are 18 showings right now with single digits of seats left.  And a total of 44 showings at 15 seats or less (to pick an arbitrary number).

 

What I'm not sure of is how many of those showings will actually sellout (or get close enough for me to count it as a sellout at final check [6 seats or fewer left])

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	43	13	1	0	-1
Seats Added	3,778	4,224	321	6	-33
Seats Sold	1,470	962	858	586	566
12/17/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	324	32,541	54,457	21,916	40.24%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	20	49	81	114	144

 

[Moviefanfr]

official presales number in France :

 

TROS sold 215 000 ticket for Wednesday, this is the 2nd best of all time and the best of all time is EG with 216 000, so it was very close. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Moviefanfr