The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

MLB stadiums have 15-40K people together at the same time...

Reduced capacity, presold seat small and midsize theaters (12s and under) can have 100-300 people total together at the same time, and they are split in separate places...

 

So, it's not quite the same thing...

 

Now, 30 screen megaplexes in cities - yeah, they might not open or might not open with more than a few screens in use...

 

But the rural 3 screeners with 60 seats per screen (selling only 30 of them) probably have a very good shot this summer...but what they will show will be the question...

It is the same thing. Baseball stadiums have the ability to spread people out much more than movie theaters do. Plus they aren't in an enclosed room like theaters are. So if they are saying that fans won't be allowed to go to an outdoor baseball stadium this summer it is going to be a long time before they say it is ok for people to go back into an enclosed movie theater. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

MLB stadiums have 15-40K people together at the same time...

Reduced capacity, presold seat small and midsize theaters (12s and under) can have 100-300 people total together at the same time, and they are split in separate places...

 

So, it's not quite the same thing...

 

Now, 30 screen megaplexes in cities - yeah, they might not open or might not open with more than a few screens in use...

 

But the rural 3 screeners with 60 seats per screen (selling only 30 of them) probably have a very good shot this summer...but what they will show will be the question...

Yeah, if anything theaters will be doing what restaurants will be doing by being open for business but still using social distancing practices. The average movie theater auditorium these days only holds about 200 people at most on average anyway (which isn't the case with places like stadiums).

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, if anything theaters will be doing what restaurants will be doing by being open for business but still using social distancing practices. The average movie theater auditorium these days only holds about 200 people at most on average anyway (which isn't the case with places like stadiums).

Restaurants are only allowing take out. The places that are still allowing people to go in but are requiring social distancing practices are essential businesses.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, RockyMountain said:

Restaurants are only allowing take out. The places that are still allowing people to go in but are requiring social distancing practices are essential businesses.

A ton of restaurants (especially mall locations and ones where take out/drive-thru wasn't an option) have closed as well.

[Porthos]

I would point out that Gov. Newsom's comment was about "hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands" of people in an area.  Most movie theaters now seat from 50 to 300 people, with some more or less of course.

 

I could see something like what was happening in Australia when @DeeCee showed us seat maps that enforced distancing (no seats could be sold next to each other).

 

IMO, and I'm no expert but this is what mainly comes to mind. The problem isn't people in an enclosed space.  It's the cleaning of seats and floors between showings.  Gonna have to clean auditoriums to a much higher standard than might normally happen.  So not only would there be fewer seats per showing (due to seats being blacked out to enforce social distance) but also fewer showings to give staff a longer time to throughly clean each auditorium.

 

I think it could happen.  But there are logistical hurdles which need to be looked at.  Which aren't necessarily easy to clear.

[DeeCee]

[filmlover]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I would point out that Gov. Newsom's comment was about "hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands" of people in an area.  Most movie theaters now seat from 50 to 300 people, with some more or less of course.

 

I could see something like what was happening in Australia when @DeeCee showed us seat maps that enforced distancing (no seats could be sold next to each other).

 

IMO, and I'm no expert but this is what mainly comes to mind. The problem isn't people in an enclosed space.  It's the cleaning of seats and floors between showings.  Gonna have to clean auditoriums to a much higher standard than might normally happen.  So not only would there be fewer seats per showing (due to seats being blacked out to enforce social distance) but also fewer showings to give staff a longer time to throughly clean each auditorium.

 

I think it could happen.  But there are logistical hurdles which need to be looked at.  Which aren't necessarily easy to clear.

It'll probably be on a movie to movie basis. This definitely seems like something that would apply to, say, Mulan (which, if it still opens in late July and social distancing measures are still enforced, will probably get most of the screens at a 24 plex anyway to reach maximum audience potential) but not so much for a non-tentpole.

[TwoMisfits]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

I would point out that Gov. Newsom's comment was about "hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands" of people in an area.  Most movie theaters now seat from 50 to 300 people, with some more or less of course.

 

I could see something like what was happening in Australia when @DeeCee showed us seat maps that enforced distancing (no seats could be sold next to each other).

 

IMO, and I'm no expert but this is what mainly comes to mind. The problem isn't people in an enclosed space.  It's the cleaning of seats and floors between showings.  Gonna have to clean auditoriums to a much higher standard than might normally happen.  So not only would there be fewer seats per showing (due to seats being blacked out to enforce social distance) but also fewer showings to give staff a longer time to throughly clean each auditorium.

 

I think it could happen.  But there are logistical hurdles which need to be looked at.  Which aren't necessarily easy to clear.

I'd expect movies to have a 90-120 minute turnover window vs the 30-45 minutes now.

 

Either that, or I'd expect 2 showings - afternoon (3pm) and evening (7pm)...and cleanings after both...you could staff one 8 hour shift (with break) that way, keeping costs down...

[Mau]

do you guys think that there will not be more billion dollar movies until (maybe) avatar 2 or something in 2022?

[AJG]

29 minutes ago, Mau said:

do you guys think that there will not be more billion dollar movies until (maybe) avatar 2 or something in 2022?

I first thought that the $1.5bil movie is dead forever, now im thinking $1bil might be gone too.

 

I am certain China will give Chinese movies fake BO numbers.

[Mau]

52 minutes ago, AJG said:

I first thought that the $1.5bil movie is dead forever, now im thinking $1bil might be gone too.

 

I am certain China will give Chinese movies fake BO numbers.

I can see general audiences avoiding theaters until a vaccine is applied to a huge part of the population and by then people would prefer streaming services

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

I first thought that the $1.5bil movie is dead forever, now im thinking $1bil might be gone too.

 

I am certain China will give Chinese movies fake BO numbers.

Right... cause this pandemic is gonna last until the end of time

[Jamiem]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Right... cause this pandemic is gonna last until the end of time

It doesn’t need to for this to happen, theatres are going to be weaker coming out of this giving studios a chance to shorten the window (I’d guess down to a month) and perfect timing for them with most of the big ones having launched or in the process of launching streaming services.

 

That being said I think the trend of only the biggest and smallest films going to cinema is going to continue so I personally expect there will still be some billion dollar films, they will just be less frequent.

[MrGlass2]

7 hours ago, AJG said:

I first thought that the $1.5bil movie is dead forever, now im thinking $1bil might be gone too.

Don't say never, the US dollar might crash at one point...

Or there is always inflation.

[charlie Jatinder]

42 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Don't say never, the US dollar might crash at one point...

Or there is always inflation.

I don't know, but a global recession means currency of other countries also faring poor. Right?

 

Indian ₹ is at its lowest $1=₹77, last year it was ₹68.

 

CN¥ is $1=7.1, last year was ¥6.7.

 

GBP is $1=0.8, last year was 0.75.

[Mau]

I also think opening weekends will be avoided for big movies. People will wait for the second, third or fourth weekend to see a movie.

[DeeCee]

I’m going to unpin this thread until theatres reopen. Please let me know when that happens if I forget. 

[MattW]

edit: didn't see the other thread, moved

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by MattW

[Eric the Clown]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-proposed-changes-and-strategies-for-the-2020-release-calendar/

 

Quote

If you’ve been keeping up with previous updates, you’re aware of numerous rescheduling moves by studios in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This week, I’m diving into a few of the remaining question marks and potential moves we could still see in the coming weeks in order to make the 2020 (and beyond) calendar more strategically sound for both studios and exhibitors.

 

The good news is that the industry has shifted the bulk of its most important titles as efforts and plans are underway for a projected mid-summer theatrical reopening, with Christopher Nolan’s Tenet currently planned as the first new wide release on July 17. Everything depends on the timeline of the virus and the world’s ability to continue social distancing while simultaneously reviving and adapting aspects of normal daily life, including going to the movies.

 

With that caveat, bear in mind that the speculative changes discussed below are based on the status quo as of today. They do not represent any official announcements by studios (unless otherwise noted), and could change on a dime depending on any number of major news developments whether they’re related to productions, the movie industry, or the world at-large.

 

Also note that the suggestions below are generally limited to what are perceived as major releases with moderate-to-high box office potential (tentpoles, with a few exceptions). I’m also excluding films that, while still currently on the release schedule, may not finish production in time for their scheduled releases.

 

A Proposed 2020 Release Calendar for Key Releases

Release Date	Title	Distributor
7/17/2020	Tenet	Warner Bros.
7/24/2020	Mulan	Disney
7/31/2020	Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar	Lionsgate
8/7/2020	The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run	Paramount
8/14/2020	The One and Only Ivan	Disney
8/14/2020	Wonder Woman 1984	Warner Bros.
8/21/2020	Antebellum	Lionsgate
8/21/2020	Bill & Ted Face the Music	United Artists Releasing
8/28/2020	none
9/4/2020	A Quiet Place Part II	Paramount
9/4/2020	The Beatles: Get Back	Disney
9/18/2020	The King’s Man	20th Century Studios
9/25/2020	Candyman (2020)	Universal
10/2/2020	Tom Clancy’s Without Remorse	Paramount
10/9/2020	Death on the Nile (2020)	20th Century Studios
10/9/2020	The Witches (2020)	Warner Bros.
10/16/2020	Halloween Kills	Universal
10/23/2020	Connected	Sony / Columbia
10/30/2020	Greyhound	Sony / Columbia
10/30/2020	Spiral: From the Book of Saw	Lionsgate
11/6/2020	Black Widow	Disney / Marvel Studios
11/13/2020	The Trial of the Chicago 7	Paramount
11/20/2020	The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It	Warner Bros. / New Line
11/20/2020	Soul	Disney / Pixar
11/25/2020	No Time to Die	MGM
12/4/2020	none
12/11/2020	Free Guy	20th Century Studios
12/11/2020	Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount
12/18/2020	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount
12/23/2020	American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story	Lionsgate
12/23/2020	The Croods 2	Universal
12/23/2020	West Side Story (2020)	20th Century Studios
12/25/2020	News of the World	Universal

 

Didn't know where to put it, so how about here?

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-proposed-changes-and-strategies-for-the-2020-release-calendar/

 

Didn't know where to put it, so how about here?

They never released the trailer online but I saw the first teaser for Barb & Star before a few movies and it looked like it was going for a similar fun summer vibe like In the Heights was so it wouldn't be a surprise if that ends up delayed a whole year as well.

 

Edit: less than 20 minutes later Lionsgate did just that heh. Most of their 2020 slate has gone to 2021 now.

Edited May 1, 2020 by filmlover