The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

20 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Free Guy Harkins California T-1 Day

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	13	3,286	81	2.47%	$1,037	$12.80
Total	13	3,286	81	2.47%	$1,037	$12.80

 

So its confirmed that it won't release on Cine1 on THU with TSS holding all of the shows. That makes it incompatible with any other comp I had. Even using the normal screenings only, it is 30% of TSS and 33% of Jungle Cruise. 

 

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	80	12.68%	$960	$12.00
IMAX	2	890	18	2.02%	$270	$15.00
Total	11	1,521	98	6.44%	$1,230	$12.55

 

Completely opposite, in these two normal screenings are beating TSS by 38% though IMAX is well behind at 14%. Overall without Cine1, these two theaters are 47% of TSS.

 

Since release size is small I may track more theaters to get idea of whole chain as CA seems outlier.

 

Edit:

Arvada 14, CO - 21 (3 shows) 13.2% of BW

Arrowhead Fountains, PNX - 31 (4 shows) 11.9% of BW

 

The above two are actually quite solid considering BW had a very low multi, so 12-13% of BW T-1 day is equivalent of 18-20% final of BW.

 

No idea why CA is being so low. Just 7% of BW in normal screening, and just 3.8% when Cine1 are added.

Free Guy Harkins California Final

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	16	3,587	491	13.69%	$6,193	$12.61
Total	16	3,587	491	13.69%	$6,193	$12.61

 

The whole Harkins chain is not a good measure today with no premium format release on THU but CA was low even without those, with normal screenings about 60% of Jungle Cruise and 45% of TSS, giving $1.6-1.8M.

 

BUT...

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	258	40.89%	$3,096	$12.00
IMAX	2	890	69	7.75%	$1,035	$15.00
Total	11	1,521	327	21.50%	$4,131	$12.63

 

Lack of Cine 1 hurt the film here as well, being 34% of TSS aka $1.4M but Normal and IMAX were 66% of TSS, which would be $2.7M Approx.

 

Now ideally these would be big enough sample to come on conclusion but not here, so I tracked few other theaters as well.

Arrowhead Fountains 18, PNX - $2,712 (226 admits 32.7% on 4 shows) - 27.4% of BW - $3.78M

Arvada 18, CO - $1,332 (111 admits 23.5% on 3 shows) - 26.7% of BW - $3.69M

 

As you can see, its all over the place. So one way to deal with it, is to estimate entire chain based on data I have.

 

CA and CO I tracked fully at $6,193 and $1,884.

 

Can estimate Arizona based on Phoenix 3 theaters data, giving around $32-35K. The total chain is probably around $40-43K. Usually that would mean $2-2.4M but with absence of premium release, the ratio will be low. So I guess around $2.4-2.7M based on this data.

Edited August 13, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[AdrianL]

The heck? 2.5m would be really solid. If this opens with more than TSS I'll be shocked. Movie is pretty enjoyable so good for it if it does well. (And I guess if this does at least 22 then people won't expect a Shang Chi opening below 30m... lol)

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 minute ago, AdrianL said:

The heck? 2.5m would be really solid. If this opens with more than TSS I'll be shocked. Movie is pretty enjoyable so good for it if it does well. (And I guess if this does at least 22 then people won't expect a Shang Chi opening below 30m... lol)

Shang Chi has no  stars, but Marvel is the star, but over /under 30m may happen

[ThomasNicole]

With 2.5M this actually can make +30M OW, which is around i was expecting before TSS opening. That would be good, hoping for the best.

 

Also hoping DB2 and Respect overperform.

[DAJK]

Respect did AWFUL here. Like... AWFUL tonight. And my town over indexes for old people movies lol.

[DInky]

The Wrap had an article out yesterday saying that Free Guy will have a 15-17M weekend. How were they so wrong?

[Madhuvan]

2.5m previews are excellent imo , it's not like it would done exponentially better in normal time. 30m is definetly a possibility. Sadly , I will have to wait for digital release to watch it. 

[Jamiem]

17 minutes ago, DInky said:

The Wrap had an article out yesterday saying that Free Guy will have a 15-17M weekend. How were they so wrong?

The trades being wrong is normal, the real mystery is when the get something right. 

[Borobudur]

43 minutes ago, DInky said:

The Wrap had an article out yesterday saying that Free Guy will have a 15-17M weekend. How were they so wrong?

Also, even they are wrong, the wrong is a welcoming one if it overperformed

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Now let's see if $30M is within reach for Funny Reddit Man's latest, and also if Don't Breathe 2 scores a double digit launch. A fun weekend is in order.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, DInky said:

The Wrap had an article out yesterday saying that Free Guy will have a 15-17M weekend. How were they so wrong?

 

Well, let's wait for confirmation about the preview range before we get that far.  While I think we're better here in the tracking thread, we've had some misses as well when it comes to previews. 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, let's wait for confirmation about the preview range before we get that far.  While I think we're better here in the tracking thread, we've had some misses as well when it comes to previews. 

Psssssh, waiting for numbers is a classic tactical mistake. What if they come in at 1.9? Then we can’t dunk on trade projections anymore. If we dunk on them now, that whole potential issue is neatly avoided  

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

Psssssh, waiting for numbers is a classic tactical mistake. What if they come in at 1.9? Then we can’t dunk on trade projections anymore. If we dunk on them now, that whole potential issue is neatly avoided  

 

*starts to reply*

 

 

*pause*

 

Carry on then! 👍 

[DAJK]

This is super late because I just got back from work, but yea... late nights did not help Respect. Bombing horribly here. Closest comp I can think of is Poms.

 

Free Guy did very well here. Numbers here suggest somewhere around 2.8M.

 

Don't Breathe suggests around 1M give or take.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-7	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	3	0	0.37%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	2	0	0.23%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	7	0	0.56%
	The Night House Total		16	28	2,935	12	0	0.41%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	7	3	0.72%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	6	4	0.44%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,423	7	-1	0.49%
	The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	20	6	0.53%
T-8	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	15	1,751	15	5	0.86%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,698	40	11	1.48%
		Raleigh	3	11	1,111	52	7	4.68%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		12	43	5,560	107	23	1.92%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	5	2	0.19%
		Phoenix	6	21	2,824	6	4	0.21%
		Raleigh	7	27	3,637	0	0	0.00%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		18	66	9,107	11	6	0.12%

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-6	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	3	0	0.37%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	4	2	0.46%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	7	0	0.56%
	The Night House Total		16	28	2,935	14	2	0.48%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	8	1	0.82%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	10	4	0.73%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,423	7	0	0.49%
	The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	25	5	0.66%
T-7	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	15	1,751	33	18	1.88%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,698	44	4	1.63%
		Raleigh	3	14	1,274	69	17	5.42%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		12	46	5,723	146	39	2.55%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	6	1	0.23%
		Phoenix	6	21	2,824	6	0	0.21%
		Raleigh	7	27	3,637	2	2	0.05%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		18	66	9,107	14	3	0.15%

 

Paw Patrol continues to look like the winner for next week.  Currently pacing at .43x of Space Jam's opening Friday for 5.66m.  It's improved against SJ two days in a row.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2.2. Guess it underperformed outside of MTCs. Still better than it had been looking as late as yesterday afternoon though. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

2.2. Guess it underperformed outside of MTCs. Still better than it had been looking as late as yesterday afternoon though. 

Fair enough. THU didn't had PLFs in many chains, so wonder if THU previews end up around 20% of OD.

[Krissykins]

14 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

2.1M.

Looks like you were closest, well done! 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor what's the PS.

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor what's the PS.

Friday PS 27416, 53% of JC at the same point which was 52009 (last night it was a bit under half), and 86% of TSS at the same point. Based on yesterday walkups should be better than both. Guessing Friday can hit 7.5 million. 

 

Sat PS is 13744 which is nearly 5% higher than Friday at the same point. I am impressed. This is looking at a solid Sat bump imo. Guessing 9 million Sat. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Menor