The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/24/2021 at 12:57 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtimes sample for 9/24 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Showtimes	Standard	PLF
Shang-Chi	3,218	62,134	60,172	1,962
Dear Evan Hansen	2,985	50,762	49,090	1,672
Cry Macho	3,226	32,316	32,316	0
Free Guy	2,681	28,101	28,070	31
CopShop	2,641	25,982	25,982	0
Candyman	2,270	23,833	23,833	0
Jungle Cruise	1,891	18,292	18,292	0
Malignant	2,140	17,791	17,791	0
Eyes of Tammy Faye	1,226	13,263	13,263	0
Paw Patrol	1,592	11,579	11,579	0
Courageous	967	11,304	11,304	0
Card Counter	681	5,833	5,833	0
Don't Breathe 2	641	4,828	4,828	0

 

Futures previews show counts

 

Venom 2 - 15,596

Addams Family - 6,074

No Time to Die - 10,513

 

US showtimes sample for 10/1 weekend if anyone else wanted to track these.

 

Movie	Theaters	Showtimes	Standard	PLF
Venom 2	3,273	137,474	124,452	13,022
Addams Family 2	3,204	68,219	68,219	0
Shang-Chi	2,879	34,635	34,559	76
Many Saints	2,807	32,703	32,703	0
Dear Evan	2,952	29,485	29,485	0
Free Guy	2,169	23,092	23,072	20
Candyman	1,472	11,068	11,068	0
Jungle Cruise	1,214	8,711	8,711	0
Cry Macho	918	6,365	6,365	0
Titane	521	6,186	6,186	0
The Eyes of Tammy Faye	871	4,031	4,031	0
Malignant	497	2,693	2,693	0
Paw Patrol	491	2,672	2,672	0

 

US showtimes sample for 10/8 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Showtimes	Standard	PLF
No Time to Die	3,529	112,174	105,949	6,225
Venom 2	3,327	90,182	86,866	3,316
Addams Family 2	3,236	44,697	44,697	0
Many Saints of Newark	2,835	26,023	26,023	0
Shang-Chi	2,374	24,810	24,810	0
Free Guy	1,353	10,840	10,840	0
Dear Evan Hansen	1,644	10,049	10,049	0
Lamb	541	6,740	6,740	0
Candyman	705	4,838	4,838	0
The Jesus Music	269	2,718	2,718	0
Cry Macho	348	2,430	2,430	0
Jungle Cruise	373	2,374	2,374	0
Titane	429	2,087	2,087	0

 

Future previews show counts

 

Halloween Kills - 4,644

The Last Duel - 2,796

Dune - 5,906

Ron's Gone Wrong - 1,353

[efialtes76]

$3.2M for Venom.

Venom dailies were crap.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, efialtes76 said:

$3.2M for Venom.

Venom dailies were crap.

deadline says 3,4

[Chrysaor]

Call me overly optimistic, but I still think there's an incredibly strong chance that No Time to Die bests Spectre's opening weekend. Maybe even an outside chance that it bests Skyfall's. Yes, I know that traffic has dropped off a lot the past few days, but Bond has always been a franchise that's about legs than rather a big splash up front and that's true of the opening weekend grosses as well. For comparison, Spectre only did $6MM in previews on it's way to $70.4MM opening weekend. If the $5.25MM figure holds then sure, that means that previews are down (while preview grosses have continued to play a larger and larger role over the past 6 years), but it also means that an older audience skewing film will have grossed 80% of what it's predecessor did during the pandemic (according to NATO, the avg. ticket price is $916 for 2021 and was $8.42 in 2015, this works out to 573,144 vs. 712,589 tickets) that would be absolutely huge for the older demo. Does that mean that the opening weekend is going to be 80% of Spectre's? No, I don't think so at all.

 

Again, Bond's always been a leggy franchise even on OW, and we've seen some fantastic day to day holds in the opening weekends of recent tentpoles. I don't see any reason why this won't be just as true, perhaps even more so for Bond. If LTBC can have a 15% second day drop, I see no reason at all why NTTD can't to. LTBC benefited from, not just the overall trends of the marketplace in general right now (leggier weekends than usual) but also the fact that it was a much better received film than it's predecessor -- a fact that NTTD should absolutely benefit from as well. Now granted, word of mouth will definitely factor into this, but critics and audiences aren't usually as far apart on the Bond franchise as they sometimes are on other blockbusters and with a solid 90% RT audience score so far, I think it's set up to be in great shape. Will this have the kind of holds that Shang-Chi had? Probably not, but if any tentpole can put up similar ones it's probably Bond who has that baked into it's franchise history and is about un-reliant on preview showing as a major action franchise can be in 2021.

 

What's also absolutely key to remember in the NTTD vs. Spectre comp is that the latter was a huge anomaly in regards to how frontloaded it's opening weekend was -- not in terms of it's preview gross, but in terms of it's day to day: it posted abysmal day to day holds at -52.2% SAT and -55.3% SUN. Compare that to Skyfall which had a higher true SAT than FRI (and if you want to go back that far, CR saw a FRI to SAT bump too, and even QoS only dropped 4%, although it posted a steep SAT to SUN drop). Spectre simply did not play like a Bond film opening weekend. And while I'm not sure that NTTD will go so far as to play like Shang-Chi this weekend, I think it will almost certainly play more like LTBC than Spectre. This is all to say that I think No Time to Die is in excellent shape to beat Spectre's opening weekend record. Even if it has a $27MM opening day, the holds should be enough to get it over Spectre's opening weekend, and if it tops Spectre's opening day then I think it has a shot (how good of a shot remains to be seen) of topping LTBC's (Skyfall did $88.3MM based on a $33.5 opening day and those kinds of holds would be much less of an anomaly now than usual). In any case, with this film, as with any Bond title it's all about the holds rather than making a big splash upfront.

 

 

UPDATE: And the previews are in -- $6.23MM. This is officially topping Spectre's weekend and Skyfall's and LTBC's are definitely on the table.

Edited October 8, 2021 by Chrysaor

[efialtes76]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

deadline says 3,4

Sorry.3.4M.

[Inceptionzq]

9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex Friday(212 showings)

 

6731(+1351)/56218 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 20.72M

 

The decrease isn't surprising considering the MTC data. BW comp will probably be under 20M by tomorrow morning.

No Time to Die Megaplex Friday(212 showings)

 

7412(+681)/56218 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 20.99M

 

Did better than I expected. Let's hope this is happening everywhere else

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Chrysaor said:

 

1. Venom and Shang-Chi IM doesn't matter as they had very different sales patterns and audiences. Also, previews were 6.23 million with 1 million from Wed, so the Spectre comp doesn't make sense.

 

2. 90% verified audience score is nothing special and usually corresponds to an A- on Cinemascore (which is the same as Spectre).

 

3. I don't know what you're referring to with Spectre's daily holds, it bumped 19% on Saturday, not 52.2% drop. 

 

Yeah it has a chance to top Spectre if walkups today are very very good, but Skyfall? I have no clue where you can see that. 

[TalismanRing]

18 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Minus those leaves a $4.8m avg.  This is over indexing in Canada (did BW ad TSS even have any or full Canada?) 

 

So ~ $5m - 5.25m not including Wed.

 

Finally

 

Edited October 8, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

Aside from that?  Eh, good enough I suppose.  Not breaking out, but not flatlining either.  Since Canada is doing gangbusters that might be counteracting the extra showing I have from SMG.  So let's say 5.9m +/- .3m in previews. 

 

Tiniest bit higher than my window (I was thiiiiis close to calling for 6m +/- .3m), but I'll take it. 👍

 

EDIT:::

 

If it was 6.2m, then that is right at the edge of my window after all:

 

Edited October 8, 2021 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Friday Update

MTC1 Friday NTTD - 158488/878006 2446522.38 4958 shows. 

 

Its accelerating and we have to see what is the peak pace during evening hours. Need to double this in $ value to have a reasonably good day and then a good increase on saturday. Lots of ifs at the moment. Let us wait and watch. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Bond run at MTC2 that just finished was 96974/674426. Very weak morning pace. Running slightly over half of F9's pace. Needs to do better than that. If that continues, it will finish at 175k or about 2.1 million. For reference TSS final Friday was 1.05 million and so it would only be double that, so 16 million. Though Canada will probably add a million or so and from Keyser's recent post seems like MTC1 will do a bit better. I am sticking with my projection of 18 million for now. 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Menor said:

Bond run at MTC2 that just finished was 96974/674426. Very weak morning pace. Running slightly over half of F9's pace. Needs to do better than that. If that continues, it will finish at 175k or about 2.1 million. For reference TSS final Friday was 1.05 million and so it would only be double that, so 16 million. Though Canada will probably add a million or so and from Keyser's recent post seems like MTC1 will do a bit better. I am sticking with my projection of 18 million for now. 

 

Is that true Friday or total Friday (so $12M true Friday)?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Is that true Friday or total Friday (so $12M true Friday)?

True Friday. 

[cax16]

Ontario just removed capacity limits on theatres and some other large venues as of tonight at midnight. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-2 days Saturday(215 showings): 3056(+608)/56677(+233) in 15 theaters

 

T-3 days Sunday(191 showings): 630(+127)/51036 in 15 theaters

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-1 days Saturday(216 showings): 4569(+1513)/56687(+10) in 15 theaters

 

T-2 days Sunday(191 showings): 869(+239)/51036 in 15 theaters

[SpiderByte]

How big a drop are we looking at for Venom?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

82

311

26.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

39

318

12.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
332	22	4897	6.78%	15	31

 

AMCs sold	211
Cinemarks sold	65
Regals sold	35
Harkins sold	21

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 3.99M

Suicide Squad comp: 3.36M

Fast 9 comp: 3.29M

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

93

311

29.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

318

14.15%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
380	48	5099	7.45%	15	33

 

AMCs sold	243
Cinemarks sold	80
Regals sold	36
Harkins sold	21

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 4.14M

Suicide Squad comp: 3.45M

Fast 9 comp: 3.49M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/7/2021 at 4:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday(24 showings): 147(+21)/4244 in 14 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 3.22M

 

T-8 days Friday(51 showings): 145(+33)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 8.17M

 

T-9 days Saturday(51 showings): 53(+14)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-10 days Sunday(30 showings): 19(+2)/4882 in 9 theaters

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday(24 showings): 156(+9)/4244 in 14 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 2.73M

 

T-7 days Friday(51 showings): 208(+63)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 10.81M

 

T-8 days Saturday(51 showings): 84(+31)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-9 days Sunday(30 showings): 19/4882 in 9 theaters

 

Really bad Thursday increase for whatever reason, but Friday and Saturday were great. Guess most people that bought tickets in the past 24 hours just happened to be going for Friday and Saturday.

Edited October 8, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

219

653

33.54%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

156

1451

10.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
768	43	10415	7.37%	15	53

 

AMCs sold	591
Cinemarks sold	45
Regals sold	124
Harkins sold	8

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.45M

Black Widow day 4 comp: 9.98M

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

231

653

35.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

189

1451

13.03%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
871	103	10415	8.36%	15	53

 

AMCs sold	647
Cinemarks sold	60
Regals sold	156
Harkins sold	8

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.98M

Black Widow day 5 comp: 10.44M

 

Another great day. I'll be switching to the regular BW comp tomorrow.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-14 days Thursday(36 showings): 1244(+148)/11568 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.80M

Black Widow comp: 8.09M

 

T-15 days Friday(85 showings): 1209(+147)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 68.75M

Black Widow comp: 25.75M

 

T-16 days Saturday(82 showings): 550(+84)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-17 days Sunday(67 showings): 180(+33)/23463 in 12 theaters

 

Still very strong here. Almost caught up to BW Friday in 4 days, whereas BW has had 13 days of sales at this point.

Dune Megaplex

 

T-13 days Thursday(36 showings): 1352(+108)/11568 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 17.09M

 

T-14 days Friday(85 showings): 1362(+153)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 59.11M

 

T-15 days Saturday(82 showings): 650(+100)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-16 days Sunday(67 showings): 213(+33)/23463 in 12 theaters

 

No Black Widow comp today but Friday very likely passed BW now