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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-1 Day and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

31

2648

3745

29.29%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              4

Total Seats Added Today:                 301

Total Seats Sold Today:                    226

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

1.5300x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 1 day before their showings.

 

T-1 day:

FB2 sneaks       15 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 682/1399 seats left  |  48.75% sold]

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

179

17730

19706

10.03%

 

Total Showings Added Today:               1

Total Seats Added Today:                  108

Total Seats Sold Today:                     120

 

Unadjusted Comps

6.2138x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after seven days of pre-sales.

3.2661x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after seven days of pre-sales.

3.2607x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after seven days of pre-sales.

1.4540x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 after seven days of pre-sales.

 

Day 7:

Pika         13 tickets sold [0 sellouts/72 showings |     7691/8009 seats left     |  3.97% sold]

Aladdin   32 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |     9178/9783 seats left     |  6.18% sold]

KotM       46 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |  11010/11616 seats left   |  5.22% sold]

TS4         61 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings  |  10948/12307 seats left   | 11.04% sold]

NOTE:  Some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Adjusted Comps

1.4662x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after seven days of pre-sales.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 7:

JW2            106 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/97 showings   |     8856/10113 seats left  | 12.43% sold]

TLK (JW)     104 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/179 showings  |  15481/17324 seats left  | 10.64% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

 

====

 

NOTE:   Starting tomorrow, all comps will be switched to a "x days from premiere" model as opposed to the current "after x days of pre-sales".

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Molek Cult Classic

Molek

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

6.2138x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after seven days of pre-sales.

3.2661x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after seven days of pre-sales.

3.2607x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after seven days of pre-sales.

1.4540x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 after seven days of pre-sales.

1.4662x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after seven days of pre-sales.

$34.8m (Pikachu)

$22.9m (Aladdin)

$20.4m (Godzilla)

$17.4m (Toy Story 4)

$22.4m (Fallen Kingdom)

 

I like the increases here.

 

Previews look like they will be above $20.5m and below $23m: I think it will do higher than Godzilla and lower than Aladdin.

I'd give it a range of $195-240m OW, with an IM of 9.5 to 10.5

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-1 Day and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

31

2648

3745

29.29%

 

 

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

179

17730

19706

10.03%

 

 

Just as a heads up, there MIGHT be a sight change of showings for Far From Home and a radical change of showings for The Lion King.  

 

One of the local theaters that is non-reserved seating (Century Folsom) had about 95% of its future schedule nuked at some point today.  It still has most of Monday's schedule up, but for some reason the two FFH midnights it had are now missing. For this coming Tue through next Thursday (the 11th), it only has FFH listed (except for one rando indie film on the 10th).

 

It then has three rando indie films on the 17th, and one on the 29th and nothing else.  ALL of The Lion King showings that HAD been scheduled are now gone.  Including the 14 I had listed for that theater for opening night.

 

Frankly, I don't know what's going on here.  It's probably a glitch on the theater end.  But there is a chance the theater might be closing down, presumably for renovations.  Or it could be closing ticketing for a spell to upgrade to reserved seating.

 

Either way, I'm leaving things "as is" for the moment.  If the midnights don't pop back up tomorrow, I will have to remove them from the final report for FFH I make tomorrow.  No big loss since they are non-reserved and are only around for historical comparisons.

 

I'll probably leave it "as is" as well on the TLK side for a couple of days.  But if they don't pop back up soon OR I find out what is going on over there, I'll remove the 14 showings from the listings.  

 

So consider this a heads up that the TLK showings might go down for a spell.  If they do, nothing to worry about as it's on a theater wide end as opposed to anything to do with TLK.

Edited by Porthos
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted

Is Pulse up yet????   

 

Spoiler

But seriously, if it doesn’t comeback today we’ll really be flying by the seat of our pants for FFH, which was hard to predict to begin with.

 

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Finnick Box Office Gold

Finnick

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This thread, the last few days, summarized:

 

515983.jpg?b64lines=aXMgUHVsc2UgdXAgeWV0

 

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Is Pulse up yet????   

 

  Hide contents

But seriously, if it doesn’t comeback today we’ll really be flying by the seat of our pants for FFH, which was hard to predict to begin with.

 

YES, akvalley is up. Daily numbers. @CoolEric258 @TalismanRing

Edited by Finnick
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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Is Pulse up yet????   

 

  Hide contents

But seriously, if it doesn’t comeback today we’ll really be flying by the seat of our pants for FFH, which was hard to predict to begin with.

 

why its down for so long ? is this usual ?

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Finnick Box Office Gold

Finnick

Posted
Posted

@VenomXXR  I am serious,  

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-07-01 04:01:19 Central
TICKETS	SHOW DATE	DAY	MOVIE
--------------------------------------------------
29	2019-07-01	MON	Aladdin
31	2019-07-02	TUE	Aladdin
9	2019-07-03	WED	Aladdin
1	2019-07-04	THU	Aladdin
6	2019-07-01	MON	Anna
2	2019-07-02	TUE	Anna
48	2019-07-01	MON	Annabelle Comes Home
124	2019-07-02	TUE	Annabelle Comes Home
14	2019-07-03	WED	Annabelle Comes Home
8	2019-07-04	THU	Annabelle Comes Home
4	2019-07-05	FRI	Annabelle Comes Home
6	2019-07-06	SAT	Annabelle Comes Home
1	2019-07-07	SUN	Annabelle Comes Home
195	2019-07-01	MON	Avengers: Endgame
34	2019-07-02	TUE	Avengers: Endgame
13	2019-07-03	WED	Avengers: Endgame
12	2019-07-04	THU	Avengers: Endgame
1	2019-07-06	SAT	Avengers: Endgame
8	2019-07-01	MON	Child's Play
15	2019-07-02	TUE	Child's Play
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fabiopazzo2 Summer Tentpole

fabiopazzo2

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I hereby pledge, I won't riot under 185mn 6 days, that will be bit disaspointing though.

HC did 154M in 6 days. 175/185M is not disappointing imho 

 

185/200M is my range

Edited by fabiopazzo2
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