The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

46 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Guess I’m seeing Halloween Kills alone, no one will go with me and they’re just going to stay at home and stream a pirate copy instead 😭

Find new friends

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Dammit @EmpireCity beat me to the punch on Eternals presale launch date. Found out about it last night, didn’t post anything lol.

 

 

Also Dune tickets are now on sale in Canada. Honestly, Canada might be a good (but not perfect) indicator of how it would have done without the Max release. Because BAH GAWD these numbers are insane

 

On par, if not slightly ahead of where Shang Chi was at this point.

Presumably Canada would be overindexing usa a lot even without max given the European performance. Do you know what your share of BR49 was?

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Halloween's sales right now are indicating 40M needs a big sale surge next week and/or good WOM+backloading into Sat/Sun. 2018 dropped 18% from the full Friday but increased 7% from the true Friday. That might not be the case this time around since sellouts will be less common. 3.5M previews would translate into this if it follows 2018:

 

15.1M Friday (4.3x previews)

12.4M Saturday (-18%)

7.1M Sunday (-41%)

34.6M Weekend

 

I'd anticipate it looking more like:

 

14M Friday (4x previews)

10.9M Saturday (-22%)

6.4M Sunday (-41%)

31.3M Weekend

 

Peacock and less PLFs are going to be a factor as well, though not as much as an HBO Max release.

And the main factor: piracy. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Guess I’m seeing Halloween Kills alone, no one will go with me and they’re just going to stay at home and stream a pirate copy instead 😭

Urgh, some people are just the worst aren’t they? 

[DAJK]

54 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Presumably Canada would be overindexing usa a lot even without max given the European performance. Do you know what your share of BR49 was?

I don’t, but I can get that info tmrw

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Halloween Kills looks bad and the reviews are not great. That said, the sales here are strong. Expecting good Thursday/Friday at least. The 2nd weekend drop will be disgusting, however. And lack of PLF dents it.

 

The Last Duel is on sale but expectedly no major movement there. It is also on a single screen at small auditorium in my Cinemark. I fear for adult dramas when this thing opens under 10m

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/4/2021 at 4:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

199

1690

11.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

272

1610

16.89%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1175	206	18159	6.47%	15	107

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 154

 

AMCs sold	791
Cinemarks sold	106
Regals sold	249
Harkins	29

 

Wednesday:

Total

272

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.77M

Fast 9 comp: 7.90M

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

227

1690

13.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

298

1610

18.51%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1416	241	18547	7.63%	15	113

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 388

 

AMCs sold	906
Cinemarks sold	146
Regals sold	304
Harkins	60

 

Wednesday:

Total

340

1429

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.80M

Fast 9 comp: 8.01M

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

Ontario is performing very strong for bond overall. Obviously it’s ahead of any other province just due to its population. But as far as per capita, and sellouts go, BC is actually Bond’s strongest market in Canada.

I think its healthy to see Canada provinces really getting out there. Ontario is still kind of in the novelty phase for theatres opening, and I think Bond (which people have been waiting forever for) and Craigs last time really has a lot of people wanting to have that "I watched Craig's last bond film in theatre" type thing going. Overall its just nice that Canada as a whole theres some joy being had to going back to the movies.

[Menor the Destroyer]

A bit late but Dune after 26 hrs at MTC2 was 5239/171706 on 1026 shows for Thursday and 5356/362218 on 2053 shows for Friday. Slowed down a lot after my first 2 hours update yesterday. Will check back in in a week as I don't think MTC2 will be doing that big numbers for Dune until later in the run. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/4/2021 at 4:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-2 days Wednesday: 532(+67)/2741(+626) in 5 theaters

 

T-3 days Thursday: 1355(+206)/20625(+120) in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.61M

Fast 9 comp: 10.23M

 

T-4 days Friday: 2369(+514)/42060(+5272) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 33.87M

Fast 9 comp: 36.43M

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-1 day Wednesday: 608(+76)/2741 in 5 theaters

 

T-2 days Thursday: 1646(+291)/24718(+4093) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.83M

Fast 9 comp: 9.93M

 

T-3 days Friday: 3157(+788)/56218(+14158) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 36.31M

Black Widow comp: 21.19M

Fast 9 comp: 39.00M

 

These Friday numbers are insane. Pulling out the Black Widow numbers because that is what Bond is performing like

[DAJK]

Dune still trucking along REALLY solid in Canada. Wouldn’t rule out 50M opening if this holds in the US.

Edited October 5, 2021 by DAJK

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

61

311

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

23

159

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
211	26	4478	4.71%	15	28

 

AMCs sold	147
Cinemarks sold	31
Regals sold	18
Harkins sold	15

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 3.24M

Fast 9 comp: 2.48M

Suicide Squad comp: 2.74M

 

Switched to normal comps since we're already pretty close to release. So the Fast 9 comp will be the worst victim of it, but it's the worst comp on here anyway

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

69

311

22.19%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

27

159

16.98%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
249	38	4461	5.58%	15	29

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 65

Seats removed: 82

 

AMCs sold	171
Cinemarks sold	38
Regals sold	19
Harkins sold	21

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 3.50M

Fast 9 comp: 2.79M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-10 days Thursday: 75(+13)/3949(+561) in 12 theaters

 

T-11 days Friday: 114(+30)/9066(+410) in 13 theaters

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-9 days Thursday: 100(+25)/4244(+295) in 14 theaters

 

T-10 days Friday: 98(+10)/8135(-931) in 13 theaters

 

One of the theaters decided to downsize their Friday showings, so 26 sold seats were lost, but 10 seats were sold today at other theaters, hence the +10.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

146

653

22.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

91

805

11.30%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 8 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
434	434	9413	4.61%	14	48

 

AMCs sold	372
Cinemarks sold	16
Regals sold	46
Harkins sold	0

 

Shang-Chi day 1 comp(17 hours): 9.52M

Black Widow day 1 comp(7 hours): 9.66M

 

Solid start. Crazy AMC skew, but it's actually the exact same percent of total sold as Shang-Chi's day 1. The AMC+Regal skew is where the difference comes from. 96.3% of Dune vs 91.5% of Shang-Chi. Interested to see if the GA gets in on this after the fan rush, and whether presales drop a relatively high percent over the next couple days.

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

191

653

29.25%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

132

805

16.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
630	196	9769	6.45%	15	50

 

AMCs sold	507
Cinemarks sold	29
Regals sold	92
Harkins sold	2

 

Shang-Chi comp: 10.79M

Black Widow day 2 comp: 10.54M

 

I am VERY VERY impressed. I expected this to slow down way more than this. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-17 days Thursday: 682/10851 in 11 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 15.67M

Black Widow comp: 4.92M

 

T-18 days Friday: 648/26747 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 62.10M

Black Widow comp: 15.84M

 

Destroying Shang-Chi here, but it obviously won't be that high. Also, I went straight to the normal comp for Black Widow because I didn't start tracking it until almost a week into presales. So, those BW comps are with 10 days of presales.

 

I've been really curious about how Dune would perform here considering that the chain has had many top performing theaters for Star Wars opening weekends. So far, that Star Wars/space opera/sci-fi interest seems to have crossed to Dune.

Dune Megaplex

 

T-16 days Thursday: 931(+249)/11087(+236) in 12 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 16.79M

Black Widow comp: 6.52M

 

T-17 days Friday: 941(+293)/29321(+2574) in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 69.07M

Black Widow comp: 22.22M

 

These numbers are very impressive too, in fact, very nice with that Shang-Chi Friday comp.

[WrathOfHan]

No Time to Die:

Weds Early Access IMAX: 48/372 (+5)

4:00 IMAX: 9/372 (+1)

5:00 Dolby: 35/236 (+5)

7:00: 10/107 (+4)

8:00 IMAX: 19/372 (+2)

9:00 Dolby: 47/236 (+3)

Total: 168/1,695 (+20) (120/1,323 without Early Access)

 

Comps:

 

48% of Venom 2 the day of (5.4M)

49% of Black Widow the day before (6.5M)

57% of Shang-Chi two days out (5M)

130% of F9 three days out (9.1M)

207% of The Suicide Squad two days out (8.5M)

230% of AQP2 two days out (11M)

700% of Old two days out (10.5M)

700% of Snake Eyes two days out (9.8M)

 

A solid day of sales. It's lost a bit of ground against Shang-Chi, but this is also when SC started its overperformance at the theater. Full shows are up for Thursday, but none were added for NTTD oddly enough.

 

Lamb:

7:00: 5/70

9:05: 4/40

Total: 9/110

 

Comps:

 

14% of The Green Knight the day of (940k weekend)

27% of Titane the day of (145k weekend)

60% of Pig the day of (350k weekend)

 

Wouldn't say these are particularly encouraging sales, especially compared to Titane last week. 

 

Dune:

6:00 IMAX: 6/372 (+1)

7:00 Dolby: 54/236 (+8)

7:45: 0/107 (-)

8:45 3D: 1/67 (+1)

9:30 IMAX: 3/372 (-)

Total: 64/1,154 (+10)

 

Good increase; still pacing ahead of NTTD  

 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Bond	72/1154	(6:30pm)	85/1407	(7:30pm)						6:00 PM
Venom 2	131/2766	(5:45pm)	161/2766	(9pm)	186/3021	(5pm)	304/3021	(3:15pm)	$11.6m	4:00 PM
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)	331/1402	(5pm)	511/1402	(5pm)	$8.8m	6:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)	498/3584	(4pm)	$13.2m	5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Bad Boys 3	46/903	(4pm)	84/1543	(9pm)	121/2018	(7pm)	246/2018	(5pm)	$6.36m	4:00 PM

 

Bond added one screen (5 total) :  85/1407

 

COMPS

BB3: $6.44m

TSS: $6.15m

V2: $6.12m

OUATIH: $4.21m

BOP: $4.05m

FvF: $3.71m

SC: $3.2m

 

Halloween: (2 screens)  32/512

Last Duel:  (2 screens)  4/514

Dune: 11/1242 (10 of 11 on RPX screens) I don't see this picking up at this theater until the week of release

 

 

Edited October 5, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Shawn Robbins]

On 10/4/2021 at 1:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Upto 12435/205025 238233.21 971 shows. I dont think this will come close to BW day 1 but looks like beating Shang Chi OD PS at MTC1 for sure. 

 

 

While CNBC have done hit pieces or pushed agenda based on what they want, I dont see this as Universal pushing it. If it was studio tracking they would have called it out.  @Shawn can confirm hopefully 🙂

Yep, the studio hasn't gone on the record with any tracking to my knowledge. And Universal is only handling the international distribution; MGM/UAR has it here (they're the ones who provided the location count last week too, not Uni -- so they'll be the ones reporting box office each day).

 

And yeah, our Bond numbers are definitely updating actively with Venom in mind... as are a few other releases this month possibly.

[baumer]

@Shawn good to see you here buddy.

[Tinalera]

Dune 

Toronto Ontario

Taken Oct 5 for Thurs Oct 21

 

(Yonge Dundas, Varsity, Scotia, Yonge Eglinton, Yorkdale, Eglinton Town, Queensway, Empress)

 

Total Sold 848

 

Total Available 8399

 

[Shawn Robbins]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

@Shawn good to see you here buddy.

Likewise, my friend! It's been too long since we caught up. Hope things are well.