The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Likewise, my friend! It's been too long since we caught up. Hope things are well.

 

It's very comforting to see old faces here.  I'm doing as well as can be,  I'm currently literally in a cabin in the woods lol.  I rented a cottage in northern ontario for the next ten days ( about 4 hours north of Toronto).  So I'm kind of just chilling right now.  Hope you're doing well also my friend.

[tonytr87]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Halloween Kills looks bad and the reviews are not great. That said, the sales here are strong. Expecting good Thursday/Friday at least. The 2nd weekend drop will be disgusting, however. And lack of PLF dents it.

 

The Last Duel is on sale but expectedly no major movement there. It is also on a single screen at small auditorium in my Cinemark. I fear for adult dramas when this thing opens under 10m

 

Last Duel and Gucci will be interesting test cases as I believe they're the first major adult dramas to open exclusively in theaters since the box office turnaround earlier this year. 

[baumer]

I hope Halloween Kills does really well.  But I know the last film really pissed a lot of people off.  I didn't care for it either after the second and third viewing.  I feel they could have done so much better.  I have no doubt this will do well but I don't think it surpasses the last one in opening or gross.

[excel1]

DUNE marketing onslaught is biggest of Covid thus far. It will translate to $$$$. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Dune still trucking along REALLY solid in Canada. Wouldn’t rule out 50M opening if this holds in the US.

Dune be may be 17-20% in Canada.

 

Better October in Canada than US.

Edited October 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Last Duel and Gucci will be interesting test cases as I believe they're the first major adult dramas to open exclusively in theaters since the box office turnaround earlier this year. 

Gucci should have a good opening weekend at least.

 

The LastDuel just feels like a bomb despite the action marketing and stars. The reviews are not that good. The buzz feels low. 

[tonytr87]

56 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Gucci should have a good opening weekend at least.

 

The LastDuel just feels like a bomb despite the action marketing and stars. The reviews are not that good. The buzz feels low. 

 

I don't trust critics on this one. They've been little bitches about this movie since it was announced. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am tired to make the full post with comps like normal but NTTD #s

 

Wed: 6050/15714 (+618), 71 shows (+10), $96381 (+9679)

 

Thu: 26740/398588 (+5033), 2817 shows (+804), $375603 (+70615)

 

Fri: 40837/651460 (+10037), 4563 shows (+1386), $520878 (+126404)

 

Solid bumps, though it was starting from a low-ish base for a blockbuster. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 9/17/2021 at 5:54 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

From what I can see so far...

AMC - 182

Regal - 76

Other - 27

Total - 285

 

All just one showing at 7pm

@katnisscinnaplex can you update these tomorrow morning?

[keysersoze123]

Huge day at MTC1 for bond. I stepped out but will update before I shutdown.

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Huge day at MTC1 for bond. I stepped out but will update before I shutdown.

I am hoping it can add 18k+ for Friday. If it does that then we will be in for another great weekend. 

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/4/2021 at 11:39 PM, Eric Soprano said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1559	15233	10.23%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 580

Total Seats Sold Today: 238

 

Comp

0.963x of F9 T-3 (6.84M)

0.426x of Black Widow T-3 (5.63M)

2.104x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (8.63M)

0.677x of Shang-Chi T-3 (5.96M)

0.886x of Venom 2 T-3 (10.28M)

 

This is what I was looking for. The goal is to match F9 by the end of its run, which isn't super likely, but still possible.

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	1869	20772	9.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 32

Total Seats Added Today: 5,539

Total Seats Sold Today: 310

 

Comp

0.964x of F9 T-2 (6.85M)

0.436x of Black Widow T-2 (5.75M)

2.081x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (8.53M)

0.711x of Shang-Chi T-2 (6.26M)

0.864x of Venom 2 T-2 (10.02M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/5/2021 at 12:01 AM, Eric Soprano said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	448	4148	10.80%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 96

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

0.781x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-10 (15.14M)

2.046x of The Conjuring 3 T-10 (20.06M)

0.503x of F9 T-10 (3.57M)

1.337x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (5.48M)

0.528x of Venom 2 T-10 (6.12M)

 

Part of it is because of the truncated sales window, but this is trucking along splendidly, Peacock be damned.

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	510	4268	11.95%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 120

Total Seats Sold Today: 62

 

Comp

0.799x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-9 (15.49M)

1.882x of The Conjuring 3 T-9 (18.45M)

0.545x of F9 T-9 (3.87M)

1.522x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (6.24M)

0.573x of Venom 2 T-9 (6.65M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/5/2021 at 12:11 AM, Eric Soprano said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	441	6716	6.57%

 

Comp

0.702x of F9 T-17 (4.99M)

0.271x of Black Widow T-17 (3.58M)

1.986x of The Suicide Squad T-17 (8.14M)

0.865x of Shang-Chi T-17 (7.61M)

1.004x of Venom 2 T-17 (11.65M)

 

Timothee always wins.

 

In all seriousness, I don't think this is as impressive as some other trackers, but it's still a really, really good first day, and I can only hope things continue to do well from here.

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	535	6716	7.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 94

 

Comp

0.806x of F9 T-16 (5.72M)

0.311x of Black Widow T-16 (4.11M)

2.277x of The Suicide Squad T-16 (9.33M)

0.758x of Shang-Chi T-16 (6.67M)

1.099x of Venom 2 T-16 (12.74M)

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Last Duel and Gucci will be interesting test cases as I believe they're the first major adult dramas to open exclusively in theaters since the box office turnaround earlier this year. 

I'm looking forward to The Last Duel but tbh I'm not expecting it to make a whole lot at this point. Just a combination of tough/uncomfortable subject matter (even with the medieval setting) at a time when people are clearly only showing up for pure "escapist" (and IP-based) fare and not a whole lot of must-see buzz surrounding it will turn it into another Ridley Scott nonstarter.

[Legion Again]

What is a “good” opening for Gucci anyway? I’m thinking the same +-10 that I am for duel.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/4/2021 at 10:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

No Time to Die

Previews + Early Shows (T-3)

MTC1 - 57013/489573 1021688.67 2463 shows (+8112)

Friday (T-4)

MTC1 - 52695/686644 891308.27 3529 shows (+9862)

Saturday(T-5)

MTC1 - 41509/740595 669335.03 3758 shows

 

Solid but not spectacular. But show counts have started to increase and I am expecting huge surge tomorrow. 

No Time to Die

Previews + Early Shows (T-2)

MTC1 - 68163/552320 1207434.25 2949 shows (+11150)

Friday(T-3)

MTC1 - 70900/856885 1179437.06 4709 shows (+18205)

Saturday(T-4)

MTC1 -55264/919739 880367.22 5081 shows (+13755) 

 

Solid increase overall and evenly spread out. Early shows will see big increase tomorrow and then previews will take over. I still believe in 8+ previews and 80m+ OW. 

 

Edit: Early Show alone sold 18107/56936 333526.29 185 shows. I ran it separately 2 hours after previews run and so overall numbers also would have gone up a bit. 

Edited October 6, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	11255	11649	394	3.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

394

 

Day 1 Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	100.25		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		7.45m
SC	71.12		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		6.26m
V2	113.22		348	348		0/127	21962/22310	1.56%		15.39m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Regal: 120/4349 [2.76% sold]

 

===

 

Not sure which comps to use here, so I'm cribbing off of Eric for now, minus Black Widow and The Suicide Squad.  Feel like it's gonna be a more like F9 than the CBMs, but until NTTD's number comes in this might do for now (Dune did 1.4x NTTD's Day 1, ftr).  Though as I look at it, the Venom 2 comp is a clear outlier here due to it's backloaded-for-a-CBM nature, so I might drop it.

 

Still seeing a fairly extreme PLF skew, though not quite as skewed as it was this morning ("only" 78% of all ticket sales are some sort of PLF).  So that makes me concerned about what's gonna happen when the most desirable PLF seats are snatched up.  Kiiiiinda seeing this with the early access shows for NTTD, which barely moved at a couple of theaters today.

All things considered, a solid start, IMO.  Now just have to see how it plays after the fan rush is over.

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	11158	11649	491	4.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

97

 

Day 2 Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	104.25		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		7.75m
SC	67.63		172	726		0/99	15764/16490	4.40%		5.95m
V2	117.75		69	417		0/146	23960/24377	1.71%		16.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

 

1.387x of NTTD after Day 2 (???)

 

Regal: 142/4349 [2.76% sold] [+22 tickets]

 

====

 

Still no real good comps, IMO.  Decent enough of a second day, though I still don't love the sale patterns at non-PLF showings (holding steady more or less, now at 75% [down from 78%]).  Did do 126% of NTTD's Day 2 locally, FWIW. 

[Porthos]

On 10/5/2021 at 12:02 AM, Porthos said:

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	157	21272	23153	1881	8.12%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	693
Total Seats Sold Today	178

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	122.77		240	1511		11/98	2360/3871	39.03%		6.17m
F9	86.96		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		6.47m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		174	1855		0/157	21148/23003	8.06%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		160	1794		0/136	18310/20104	8.92%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 95/1882 [5.05% sold] | 5.05% of all tickets sold

Regal:   416/7882 [5.28% sold] [+54 tickets]

 

====

 

Erf. Trending in the wrong direction.

 

Well, here's hoping it's even more backloaded/walkup driven than F9...

 

(also not liking that many of the new showings over at Cinemark were in the 9:30pm and later window...)

 

No Time To Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	178	22219	24485	2266	9.25%

 

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Net Showings Added Today	19
Total Net Seats Added Today	1332
Total Net Seats Sold Today	385

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	119.47		359	1870		26/118	2479/4349	43.00%		6.00m
F9	87.64		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		6.52m
NTTD (AQP adj)	---		379	2234		1/176	22101/24335	9.18%		---
NTTD (F9 adj)	---		362	2156		1/155	19280/21436	10.06%		---

COMP NOTE: Both the AQP II comp and the F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX showings which were not tracked at that time while NTTD (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps.

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

 

Matinee: 137/1882 [5.05% sold] | 6.05% of all tickets sold

Regal:     480/8058 [5.96% sold] [+64 tickets]

 

====

 

SMG sellout strikes again.  Still think it's only pushing up totals by at most a handful of tickets so I won't lose sleep over it.

 

As for the T-2 bump.... Eh.  At least the F9 comp inched up?

Edited October 7, 2021 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

10 hours ago, baumer said:

I hope Halloween Kills does really well.  But I know the last film really pissed a lot of people off.  I didn't care for it either after the second and third viewing.  I feel they could have done so much better.  I have no doubt this will do well but I don't think it surpasses the last one in opening or gross.

 

Why did it piss people off? Im just curious, i remember liking it a lot when i watched it in cinemas.