The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1229	11561	10.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp

0.837x of Black Widow T-20 (11.04M)

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1287	11561	11.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.854x of Black Widow T-19 (11.27M)

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 42026/245690 769591.34 1212 shows

OD(T-7) - 44056/536928 791809.52 2647 shows

 

Let us hope it accelerates into next week and has a good finish. 

 

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 44211/249358 807374.11 1234 shows

Friday(T-6) - 47266/539213 845884.04 2665 shows

Saturday(T-7) - 34878/577592 597606.04 2835 shows

 

Not a great day. Let us hope things start moving from tomorrow. 

[titanic2187]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 44211/249358 807374.11 1234 shows

Friday(T-6) - 47266/539213 845884.04 2665 shows

Saturday(T-7) - 34878/577592 597606.04 2835 shows

 

Not a great day. Let us hope things start moving from tomorrow. 

Please don't be NTTD.....I hope to see 4 movies breaking 50m OW 4 weeks in a row. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14119	15543	1424	9.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

87

 

T-20 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	67.92		77	1942		0/104	16676/18681	10.43%		9.39m
Eternals (adj)	---		78	1319		0/87	12891/14210	9.28%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

 

Regal: 303/4570 [6.63% sold] [+19 tickets]

 

===

 

Shang-Chi comp removed 'till at least T-17 (it's first day of sales), and possibly later.  As expected, when shifting to T-x, the Black Widow comp took quite a hit due to BW being on sale for three more days than Eternals.  Should normalize somewhat quickly, but do keep the disparity in pre-sale length in mind when looking at it.

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14064	15543	1479	9.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

55

 

T-19 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	68.40		61	2003		0/105	16615/18618	10.76%		9.45m
Eternals (adj)	---		51	1370		0/87	12840/14210	9.64%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

 

Regal: 312/4570 [6.83% sold] [+9 tickets]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	11187	12328	1141	9.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

93

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	79.96		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		4.96m
SC	58.15		188	1962		0/111	15649/17611	11.14%		5.12m
V2	62.52		180	1825		0/173	26373/28198	5.83%		7.25m

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	71.20		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		5.29m
Dune (adj)	---		78	1063		0/69	9849/10912	9.74%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 298/4758 [6.26% sold] [+19 tickets]

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	11124	12328	1204	9.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	77.88		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		4.83m
SC	56.13		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		4.94m
V2	59.96		183	2008		0/173	26190/28198	7.12%		6.96m

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	69.99		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		5.20m
Dune (adj)	---		61	1124		0/69	9788/10912	10.30%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 298/4758 [6.26% sold] [+19 tickets]

 

====

 

Not a great day in Sacto, either, I'm sad to say.

[Joyous Legion]

Weren’t we expecting it to be pretty frontloaded? Relatively weak ramp up final week? We’ll see how next days go as they come of course, but today doesn’t look too surprising.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 44211/249358 807374.11 1234 shows

Friday(T-6) - 47266/539213 845884.04 2665 shows

Saturday(T-7) - 34878/577592 597606.04 2835 shows

 

Not a great day. Let us hope things start moving from tomorrow. 

Can't say I am surprised. We have T-4 day number for NTTD, most likely Dune will have another 2-2.5K day which will be a third of NTTD pace. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Dune is going to be Alita all over again and you know it.

 

All the better for the streamers who are no doubt rubbing their hands together right now, preparing for the bidding war that will ensue once Legendary abandons the IP. See you all in another decade when the inevitable Netflix adaptation gets buried under Squid Game 10: Splatoon'

[SpiderByte]

I'd expect a big surge for Eternals over the next 8 days since reactions hit late Monday/Early Tuesday and reviews hit the 24th.

[eridani]

5 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Dune is going to be Alita all over again and you know it.

 

All the better for the streamers who are no doubt rubbing their hands together right now, preparing for the bidding war that will ensue once Legendary abandons the IP. See you all in another decade when the inevitable Netflix adaptation gets buried under Squid Game 10: Splatoon'

So can someone well versed in reading all these comparisons and presale figures make a range of predictions for dune? Like opening to 30-40 million, leading to finall domestic tally of 90-120 million. Or whatever other number.

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, eridani said:

So can someone well versed in reading all these comparisons and presale figures make a range of predictions for dune? Like opening to 30-40 million, leading to finall domestic tally of 90-120 million. Or whatever other number.

25-45 with 2x-2.5x imo. Low*low is 50 and high*high 112 but a similarly wide confidence interval for the total probably more like 60-95

 

 

That said, let’s see the pace vs NTTD today. If yday was just noise and it does a solid fraction of the pace, that would point toward the upper end.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[XXR & Friends]

I've got a friend who's asking me about a film called Ron's Gone Wrong which apparently comes out next week? It's a kids movie.

I hadn't even heard of it until today but does anyone have any idea what kind of OW it could have? I told him I'd check around but my feeling was sub-$10m. 

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

I've got a friend who's asking me about a film called Ron's Gone Wrong which apparently comes out next week? It's a kids movie.

I hadn't even heard of it until today but does anyone have any idea what kind of OW it could have? I told him I'd check around but my feeling was sub-$10m. 

7-12 and dropping from BOP, I was thinking teens a while ago but after UK debut probably more like 5-9

[Starphanluke]

I haven't been following closely so I'm not sure of the pace, but Dune presales here in my midwest state are strong... almost exclusively on premium formats. Almost all IMAX and Dolby seats are sold out for Thursday night shows (and many for Friday as well), but standard showings are nearly untouched. I seriously think we might see a record or near-record for percentage of gross as Premium Formats in an OW. 

 

Purely gut feeling, but I'm leaning towards a $30-35m opening weekend. Would love to get to $40m, though.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Starphanluke

[TwoMisfits]

48 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I've got a friend who's asking me about a film called Ron's Gone Wrong which apparently comes out next week? It's a kids movie.

I hadn't even heard of it until today but does anyone have any idea what kind of OW it could have? I told him I'd check around but my feeling was sub-$10m. 

 

If it was the Thanksgiving release with the Thanksgiving screens, it would have gone gangbusters...it advertised on all the free and pay kid movies this summer and was everywhere and got great reactions in all the screenings...

 

But on this date, releasing after 3 blockbusters against a 4th blockbuster hogging screens, giving it single smaller presale screens in almost all small and midsize theaters...and then having Eternals, Clifford, Ghostbusters, and Encanto (for the final crush) opening in weekends 3, 4, 5, 6 after having a letdown Halloween weekend 2 (and in none of this will there be school days off)...

 

Well, I said AF2 is now the goal for the OW and DOM BO to be "good" - if this had replaced Encanto on Thanksgiving, I'd have doubled both goals easy...Disney somehow got away with not realizing what they had with Free Guy and having the audience find it despite them...but with this date, I doubt that happens to the degree it did with Free Guy...

 

[cookieleeann]

On 10/16/2021 at 1:03 AM, cookieleeann said:

DUNE THURSDAY OCTOBER 21 

AMC TAMIAMI 18

 

DIGITAL

6pm- 15/63

9:40pm- 10/63

 

REAL D 3D

7pm- 17/67

 

Total 42/193

 

 

 

DUNE THURSDAY OCTOBER 21 AMC TAMIAMI 18

 

DIGITAL

6pm- 22/63(+7)

9:40pm- 13/63(+3)

 

REAL D 3D

7pm- 17/67(no change)

 

Total 52/193(+10)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

306

606

50.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

307

1319

23.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1489	95	10391	14.33%	15	55

 

AMCs sold	976
Cinemarks sold	125
Regals sold	351
Harkins sold	37

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.17M

Black Widow comp: 7.42M

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

313

606

51.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

327

1319

24.79%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1589	100	10391	15.29%	15	55

 

AMCs sold	1015
Cinemarks sold	165
Regals sold	370
Harkins sold	39

 

Shang-Chi comp: 9.15M

Black Widow comp: 7.45M

 

Hopefully it really starts accelerating today

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-5 days Thursday(53 showings): 2191(+133)/14967 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.80M

Black Widow comp: 9.05M

 

T-6 days Friday(85 showings): 2631(+255)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 52.02M

Black Widow comp: 26.48M

 

T-7 days Saturday(82 showings): 1517(+108)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-8 days Sunday(71showings): 432(+43)/24452(+480) in 13 theaters

Dune Megaplex

 

T-4 days Thursday(53 showings): 2324(+133)/14967 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 13.35M

Black Widow comp: 8.92M

 

T-5 days Friday(85 showings): 2814(+183)/29930 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 51.59M

Black Widow comp: 25.72M

 

T-6 days Saturday(82 showings): 1648(+131)/28944 in 14 theaters

 

T-7 days Sunday(71showings): 500(+68)/24452(+480) in 13 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

294

1478

19.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

201

1741

11.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1014	36	15592	6.50%	15	86

 

AMCs sold	748
Cinemarks sold	107
Regals sold	123
Harkins sold	36

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.32M

 

Slow day, but nothing to worry about. Also switched to the normal BW comp.

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

302

1478

20.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

207

1741

11.89%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1057	43	15883	6.65%	15	88

 

AMCs sold	768
Cinemarks sold	115
Regals sold	138
Harkins sold	36

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.41M

[john2000]

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

302

1478

20.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

207

1741

11.89%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1057	43	15883	6.65%	15	88

 

AMCs sold	768
Cinemarks sold	115
Regals sold	138
Harkins sold	36

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 10.41M

good that it started to increase already, the reactions tomorrow will certainly help